The last three or four days have been very consistent with the guidance on Hurricane Katia. It’s a scary run-up with a happy ending… that is if the GFS has this storm properly pegged.
I have seen these before. If it comes as forecast you will marvel at the post-passage satellite loop. It will be cool to see. This storm should take a sharp right somewhere around North Carolina.
Of course until that time it will look like it’s headed toward the US mainland, maybe even Southern New England! Like I said, scary run-up.
If the forecast changes we’re in big trouble again. No guarantees, but I’m not worried right now and you shouldn’t be either.
But if the NOGAPS is right… then we might be in trouble
With all due respect to the Navy, I can’t think of anyone who uses or even refers to the NOGAPS in an operational setting. Its strategic value doesn’t necessarily rise and fall on its specific accuracy.
So Geoff, what makes you think the hurricane is going to make a sharp right turn and go into the ocean and not hit the States? Why would it do that?
It gets turned by other more powerful atmospheric features. Hurricanes are steered by upper level winds.
What about the European models – the ECMWF model is also tracking with NC landfall…I have heard they predict with 70-80% accuracy? Any thoughts???
The ECMWF agrees with my right turn scenario (or, more accurately, I agree with its) and shows no NC landfall, though Katia gets close.
Geoff,
What’s a millibar? I saw a report on hurricanehd.com talking about the impact of Lee in MS and they said the storm was 1010 or so, with fairly weak winds at that time (20 – 30 mph). Reports on Irene said there were 940 or so. So fewer millibars equates with higher winds? How do our classic nor’easters in the winter compare? I don’t recall discussions of millibars during winter storms —
Bars are a measurement of atmospheric pressure. A millibar is a thousandth of a bar. One bar (1000 mb) is approximately the typical atmospheric pressure at sea level on Earth.
Wind is proportional to the change in barometric pressure over distance.
I’ve got 53 credits in this. It’s tough to explain in a few paragraphs.
If you say so, that’s good enough for me.
Great, that’s one thing CT dose not need, a direct hit from Hurricane Katia. We already have enough to deal with from Irene and now this. Let’s hope it hangs right and heads for open ocean and not aim right at us.