When I looked at the 18Z GFS yesterday afternoon the probability for snow Thursday was fairly obvious. A low pressure system will be south of us moving east. Moisture from the low will be pressing up against cold air.
The 00Z run came in just before I went on-the-air at 11:00 PM. The snow was gone!
Of course that’s the problem. A few days out a small shift in trajectory spells the difference between hit and miss. You hope for the models to come into agreement… and then you just pray.
Snow’s back in the GFS today. It’s also showing up in the ECMWF, aka “the European.”
Typically this kind of scenario produces a light-to-moderate snow in less than twelve hours. It would be enough to close schools, but most people will be tempted to go to work.
I’m planning on rigging some cameras in my Subaru Legacy just in case Premier wants to do a “proof-of-performance” ad sometime.
Rachel and I discussed snow before she went on today. I told her I was glad not to be on the forecast at four. She said the same for tonight at 10 and 11.
There will be a lot of number crunching going on over the next few days. Pieces of the forecast will surely change.
If you absolutely, positively need something done by Thursday as of now you should probably plan to do it Wednesday!