Let’s say you’ve got a barrel of gasoline sitting on your front lawn. No spark, it’s harmless. Add a spark and it’s big trouble.
Memorial Day will feature that barrel of gasoline sitting on Connecticut’s lawn. The question is will there be a spark?
The Storm Prediction Center has a long complex discussion about just this subject. They list all the pluses and minuses and then finally say,
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT IS VERY HIGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
It took me years to understand sentences like that. SPC is saying we can’t be sure there will be severe weather, but if there are any thunderstorms at all they are likely to be severe!
I consider myself a good forecaster, but I would be a fool to not take advantage of SPC’s specialized expertise on days like this.
I’m working tomorrow. My most important job will be radar watching. These storms are more likely to fire up overhead than move in. Warning times may be limited… if they come at all.