Isaac Makes Its Run Toward New Orleans

Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

With each hour Isaac seems more likely to impact the Gulf Coast near New Orleans. It’s tough to hear that and not think of what happened seven years ago. That scenario is repeatable, but each storm is different. Certainly Isaac and Katrina are very different.

The Hurricane Center lists Isaac at 70 mph, just below hurricane strength. This afternoon a Hurricane Hunter airplane spotted 74 knot (85 mph) winds at around 5,000 feet. Surface wind would be lower. Objective satellite analysis this morning at 10:00 AM from the University of Wisconsin (they are the kings of satellite analysis and interpretation) pegged Isaac at 50 knots (58 mph).

Maybe it’s 70 mph, maybe it’s less. It makes little difference. Isaac is moving over warm, open water.

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS.

Let’s step back seven years for a second. Where was the worst wind damage from Katrina? Not New Orleans! Wind damage was worst on the Mississippi Coast.

New Orleans dodged the bullet on classical hurricane damage. Instead New Orleans suffered a failure of human design which came long after the storm was gone and the wind had mainly subsided.

Please read this blog entry I wrote early on the morning of August 30, 2005. It was when the outside world first heard a hint of what would become New Orleans’ plight.

A weaker storm would mean less water pushed up the Mississippi to levees now hardened (a little). That is my hope. That’s not a certainty.

As I said, Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

Here in Connecticut the longer sustained period of easterly winds over Long Island Sound with Irene added to coastal flooding and structural damage.

Most likely landfall is Wendesday morning. Isaac will bring pain.

3 thoughts on “Isaac Makes Its Run Toward New Orleans”

  1. Hi Geoff

    We just moved down here to Pensacola Florida from Connecticut .
    I still keep track of you through facebook.

    Down here they’re calling for between 12-20 inches of rain and heavy rains. Although were a ways away from New Orleans they seem to think were still going to take a beating .

    Most of the area is closing down tonight till late Wednesday , The airport is closing tonight.

    This summer has been a wet one and the ground is wet.

    So I’m settling in and waiting to see whats going to happen.

    I’m at a little disadvantage as my wife had previous lived down here. So the shoes turned instead of her asking me about snow storms I’m asking the questions now.

    Thanks for blogging it helps.

  2. a year before Katrina, I was in New Orleans just after one hurrican and just before another. A native who was on my bus tour gave us all a “worst case sceenario” of high winds lifting the water from Lake Ponchartrain over the levee and it would trap people for months. I left town a day early due to that warning. It did not happen that time, but I never forgot his story. While the condition might not have been as he described, the results were even worse than he imagined.

    1. Everyone in weather and emergency planning knew this was the potential. However, the amount of incompetence before, during and after Katrina made an awful situation even worse.

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