A lot of folks want to know about Sandy. There’s no Sandy yet. There is a cluster of clouds in the warm water south of Jamaica.
Both the European and GFS models build this storm and bring it up the East Coast. First effects for us would be after dark, Saturday night.
I am not putting water in my tub. We are not stocking up on canned goods.
The global models aren’t built to handle tropical systems like this. Even small errors over this much time can produce a totally different outcome. There will be forecast errors.
The GFS solution is strange. It looked like the classic setup for the Fujiwhara effect where “Sandy” would orbit an offshore low. That would push the storm into the coast! Bad.
Instead the GFS combines three lows to produce a vigorous system, but not a hurricane and a good chance the worst wind would be away from us.
There are four GFS runs every day. Each one will be somewhat different than the last.
Right now there’s nothing to do but watch.