We’re at the point in storm tracking where I begin to get frustrated. I want to give a specific forecast. I cannot.
Well, I could, but it would be bulls**t. At this moment no one knows exactly where Hurricane Sandy will go!
Over the years researchers have developed dozens of computer models to try and predict storms through the laws of physics. Most only see a few days into the future. With Hurricane Sandy so far away, both in time and distance, the most used models are the ECMWF produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the GFS from the Weather Service.
Since each model uses its own shortcuts to allow computers to crunch the data each often has its own solution. That’s the case with Hurricane Sandy. As we get closer we hope the models come into alignment.
As of Wednesday evening the ECMWF was calling for landfall in South Jersey late Monday while the GFS brings Sandy to the Canadian Maritimes a few days later! That’s leading forecasters to believe this storm will affect the East Coast.
We’re still days away from knowing exactly where.