There are easy forecasts and difficult ones. Hurricane Sandy is surely the latter!
Wednesday at 11:00 PM the National Hurricane Center said Sandy was 90 mph. Thursday morning at 12:30 AM, only 90 minutes later, that was changed.
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED…AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH
That’s not a small change! And this rapid intensification happened while the northern flank of the storm was interacting with Cuba and it’s rough terrain.
The BBC reported 70% of Jamaica without power. Now Sandy is crossing Cuba before heading toward the Bahamas.
A storm doesn’t need to be very powerful to do damage if it hits the East Coast. A strike from the Atlantic looks likely.
What’s much more up-in-the-air is where?
The 00z GFS came in again with a Canadian Maritimes landfall Wednesday afternoon. The 00z ECMWF, the European, brings Sandy to the coast near the mouth of Delaware Bay Monday afternoon, then takes it into Washington.
Someone’s gotta be wrong!
Either of those scenarios would diminish damage to Connecticut, though we’d still get battered. Of course Connecticut is the midpoint between the two proposed paths.
So, again we’re stuck knowing a little, but not enough.
An East Coast landfall looks likely. That part’s easy.
Both models have been moderately consistent for the last 24 hours or so. Something is fooling one of them… or both. Hopefully Thursday will reveal the truth.
Thanks, Geoff. I’ve been checking here frequently as Sandy developed and really appreciate knowing even what to be uncertain about. Can’t wait to see what the models tell you next.
Watch your it’s/its, Geoff! “…it’s rough terrain.