Sandy And Saturday’s ECMWF

I’ve just had a chance to compare the 12z and 00z ECMWF outputs. The latest run is farther north and farther east. That’s bad for us, not that it was good earlier.

The ECMWF fills the storm a little sooner, meaning the winds will diminish a little faster than originally expected.

The Weather Service has made a conscious decision not to issue Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches or warnings for New York and New England. From an academic standpoint they’re right. From a practical, what will benefit the public standpoint, they are totally wrong!

Who cares how my professors would characterize Hurricane Sandy? Actionable information is what counts! The public understands “hurricane” equals “danger.”

…HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND… …SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED…

That’s not the same as a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning. Maybe it’s why New York City’s Mayor Bloomberg downplayed the perils of Hurricane Sandy for the city.

A meteorologist friend who works for another Connecticut TV station and will remain nameless notes,

I can’t believe him… but this is exactly why the NHC made the total wrong call here.

Correct. New York City is not well served by the mayor’s actions.

As for the forecast, not much has changed.

I was speaking with Rachel Frank a little earlier and we both noticed with small exceptions everything we were saying two or three days ago still holds.

You should be well into your storm preps by now.

The wind will begin to slowly pick up Sunday. The same holds true for water levels in Long Island Sound (already around a foot above tide table predictions). Showers Sunday turn into downpours Monday.

Make no mistake, Connecticut is threatened by Hurricane Sandy. There is every indication statewide this will be our worst storm in nearly 75 years!

Be safe. Stay safe. Keep yourself out of harm’s way. Storms like Sandy can block escape routes instantly. If asked to evacuate, please do so.

More late tonight when the 00z models become available.

8 thoughts on “Sandy And Saturday’s ECMWF”

  1. Thank you, Geoff for being there for us! I’m so glad
    You are on Fox! Keep up the good work and you and
    Your family, stay safe. Doppler too!!

  2. I feel like I should have a decoder ring when I read the NWS bulletins. Don’t they teach English in Meteorology School? Thanks for your translation and added insight. NWS also objected to Frankenstorm as sounding less scary than Sandy. Um, no.

  3. The NHC says “RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
    ENGLAND.”

    Only 1 to 3 inches of rain for Southern New England? I’ve seen more rain from a thunderstorm.

    What’s up with that Geoff?

  4. Geoff, am I the only one who heard the hurricane of ’38 had a tidal wave? Or was that the term they thought to use back then? ( rather than storm surge ) All I know is our family’s beach house in Westbook was in bad shape back then and there are pictures to prove it. I’m just preparing for the worst and praying for the best……

    1. No you’re not the only one who’s heard of the hurricane of ’38. My mom talked about it a lot and so did my dad. Mom grew up in northern New Hampshire and the storm was bad all the way up there. Mom told about how everyone was huddled in the livingroom scared the house would blow away. She said it was the only time in her life the power went out up there (and they get serious winter storms every year).

  5. Geoff, no matter what the obviously ‘politically correct’ classification name for this storm, it still looks hellacious for your area nad most of the upper East coast.

    All of the folks in your area need to rush to prepare, because this does not look good for this late in the season. This looks rough and nasty. My mother lives on the East coast of Florida, and, as far out to sea as it was, got significant rain and wind, and if the models are even close, IMHO Hizzonor the Mayor of New York is blowing political smoke rings, not dealing with possible reality… Besides, what made him an ‘expert’ on weather matters, anyway…

    Personally, I’d rather be over-prepared than get caught flat-footed in the middle of serious weather problems. Embarassment will sting, sure, for little while, but a lack of preparedness will hurt for a lot longer time…assuming it does not make you dead, or worse (as they say in rural Alabama,,,)

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