There is not a meteorologist in the Eastern US who isn’t poring over the 00Z data that’s coming in. Hurricane Sandy is still a major threat to the East Coast and a major threat to Connecticut.
The GFS is open in front of me using BUFKIT¹. It’s a vertical wind profile for New Haven. The plot for Motion Transfer, the ability to bring to the ground strong winds from higher altitudes, looks like a steep mountain. It peaks late Monday evening.
That’s a change. In the new run of the GFS all the timing is sped up. What was Tuesday now looks Monday.
I worry about changes like that. At this stage I want the models ‘quiet’ as far as variability is concerned.
It is difficult to be a forecaster at a time like this. You want… I want… accuracy at a level beyond science’s current capabilities. If this forecast goes wrong you will be justified in being upset. I’ll certainly be upset.
The indicators at my disposal point toward landfall between Delaware Bay and Long Island. For a pure hurricane we’d hardly feel that in Connecticut. Sandy is different.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW. – HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
In other words it looks like a mid latitude system, the kind that might dump a few inches of snow on us in a typical December. It doesn’t look like a hurricane.
Hurricane Sandy is a hybrid. It’s a little bit
country tropical and a little bit rock and roll cold core.
The Hurricane Center’s latest track surprised me. It was farther south than I expected.
It’s still awful news for us!
The GFS MOS shows wind at Groton/New London Airport as ENE@42 mph, Monday evening at 8:00 PM EDT. That’s a lot of wind and there will be gusts on top of that!
In Connecticut coastal flooding, trees/power lines down, damage to some structures and limited inland flooding seem likely. The impact will probably greater than Irene last year.
It’s tough to say what I just said. It’s scary talk. I am a little scared.
I keep looking at the data trying to find a reason to dismiss the threat. I can’t find it. I’m not 100% certain we’ll get blasted, but there’s nothing I see that says we won’t.
The ECMWF is in between 3:00 and 4:00. If there’s anything to report (and I’m awake) I’ll do a brief update.
Prepare for Sandy. Start your preps now. Keep your safety and the safety of others at the top of your list. Strong storms, like Sandy, can close escape routes very quickly. If asked, evacuate.
¹ – BUFKIT is the Swiss Army Knife of weather. It is produced within the Weather Service. It’s available for free as is the data.