My forecast last weekend will not get me into the Meteorologists’ Hall of Fame. Another weekend. Another storm. Another chance.
For the past few years nearly every meteorologist in the United States has been bad mouthing the American models and applauding the multi-nation European model. I am in that crowd. It has been rock solid.
Diane Smith wrote me earlier today. It’s cool to be Diane Smith’s friend. She is the Ambassador from Gracious Living.
I told her a foot in Hartford, probably rain at the coast.
Anyway, Diane’s got the rock solid Euro forecast… and then… the 00Z.
Consistency be damned! This run has a different solution.
The forecast in a minute. First the proviso.
This major shift implies there’s something in the current state of the atmosphere that’s not being modeled correctly. All the dynamic atmospheric models take massive shortcuts, otherwise they wouldn’t be finished calculating before the actual weather arrived!
Don’t change plans yet.
The Euro brings the low much farther south. It’s a warmer solution.
The Euro maps don’t have the detail I like, but 10:00 PM Saturday night to 1:00 AM Sunday morning shows between 1/4 and 3/8″ of moisture, but only a spotty inch of snow from the airport north. The rest is being modeled as rain.
A rain/snow mix is awful, but as long as temperatures are above freezing it’s normally not a major threat. It’s sort of hellish to be out in.
The show starts Saturday morning and lasts the day.
There’s a chance for some snow Sunday as the colder air following the system is dragged in. Alas, this ‘after the low’ snow is modeled more often than it happens.
Bottom line: Unpleasant weekend and a forecast that’s crying to be updated later on Thursday. Will do.
I am leading a hike for Appalachian Mountain Club Sunday at 1 – I hope. I’ll be watching the forecasts with great interest.
Thanks for keeping us posted with forecasts even as you focus on the DopplerDesign work. BTW, that’s a great name!
I’ve learned to watch any weekend “forecast” before Thursday evenings as a possiblity and not a probablity. That’s one of the reasons I like Geoff’s approach so much. He’s one of the few who let you know that it’s still too far out to have a whole lot of certainity about what will happen in four or five days.
Not going anywhere this weekend so whatever you say is ok with me. By the way, took my chances and went to Poughkeepsie last Saturday. Had a lovely time and dry weather. 🙂