Kenny Asks, Who Should We Trust?

This email just came in:

Hey Geoff,

Good Luck in your move. So I have to ask…Who should we trust for weather now ?


Good question. I’ve gotten it a lot.

First, there is little difference in accuracy between the four Connecticut TV stations providing a forecast. Nearly everyone’s correct nearly every day!

Don’t stop reading here. There are differences other than the numbers.

I do have a problem with the automated numbers you see on many websites. By and large they are correct, but they’re usually not double checked by humans. I’ve seen stupid forecasts posted that humans would never allow.

To a viewer there is no difference between 66&#176 and 68&#176. A snow forecast of 5″ demands the same action as one of 8″. These differences are not very important. Don’t dwell on them.

The difference in weather forecasts is how the forecaster tells the story. Is his/her presentation understandable? Does he/she leave you with actionable information?

Watch the meteorologist you best understand, because accuracy doesn’t matter if you can’t translate their words into usable info.

I know most of the meteorologists in Connecticut. They are all honorable. None of them benefits from hyping the forecast–and they don’t.

Find someone you trust. In that regard meteorology is like everything else in life.

3 thoughts on “Kenny Asks, Who Should We Trust?”

  1. Living on the west edge of the state I watch for someone who doesn’t stand in front of the map blocking the view of the Hudson River where our weather seems to come from. 🙂

  2. Geoff. You are correct where the forecasts on all four local networks are factually fairly close to each other. What separates them, in my eyes, is the delivery. Do they look and sound in control and act as if they are speaking directly to the viewer in an honest and straightforward manner. Listen, I am sorry to say this, but in the past six-eight months one particularly local station has become, for me, almost unwatchable. The forecast are delivered with too much schmaltz (if that’s a real word) and drama. A weather forecast should not a tryout for Othello or Death of a Salesman for crying out loud. Sorry but it really bothers the heck out of me; I want my weather forecast, not a Tony performance. I will not ID the station because I do not wish to offend anyone.

  3. I so agree with Ed. Lived in Danbury all my life. So many of the forecasters either stand directly in front of Western CT or just ignore us entirely….Geoff, you always gave us a shout! Lately I’ve been watching the NY stations for weather here. Or…online with Matt Scott! :). Keep in touch, Geoff!

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