I’ve been away all day and just got a chance to look at the 12Z ECMWF, the European model. The storm for early next week is now forecast even farther east.
This highlights a forecaster’s quandary. We know predictions for weather nearly a week out are often inaccurate. That seems to be the case here.
Do I sit on my hands or present what I know with enough provisos that readers understand it’s still carved in chocolate pudding? In other words, is a heads up OK?
Twenty years ago the answer was absolutely, positively say nothing! Post Sandy, in this era of more insightful computer models, it’s not so easy.
Understanding how and when to present potentially scary info is still a work in progress. I’m not sure there’ll ever be a firm answer. You go with your gut.