The First Tropical Depression Of The Season

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common. It’s usually well predicted.

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TD 1 has formed off the coast of Florida. I posted something about it on Facebook a few days ago. At that time the computers were stumped. Each model took the storm a different way.

Things have changed!

The spaghetti in this spaghetti plot is tightly clustered. Even the projected waypoint times closely align. This is what a spaghetti plot is best used for. The closer the alignment the more likely the forecast is good.

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common and normally well predicted.

Tropical Depression 1 should become Tropical Storm Arthur. Graduation to hurricane is less likely.

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