A Few Feet? Really?

If I was on-the-air today my biggest fear would be people who go to work Monday hoping to beat the storm home. To quote Rocket J. Squirrel, “That trick never works.”

Geoff in the snow East Hartford-w700-h700I have been busy today. Little time to check the weather in the Northeast, except to say I won’t miss missing the snow! However, I have read a little of the forecast chatter.

From NWS Upton, NY:

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR A DANGEROUS…HISTORIC BLIZZARD AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT…STALLING SE OF MONTAUK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24 HR FROM MON AM TO TUE AM… BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING

That’s pretty scary talk. It’s helpful to take a deep breath and consider for a moment.

If I was on-the-air today my biggest fear would be people who go to work Monday hoping to beat the storm home. To quote Rocket J. Squirrel, “That trick never works.”

No 2015 forecast is going to get the accumulation exactly right. That’s OK. One foot and two feet of snow are similar in their impact. Everything stops!

The most important thing to know is the timing. Once the afternoon arrives all travel bets are off. It only takes 1/2″/hour snowfall to get ahead of the plows!

Charge your cellphone and keep it at 100% as long as you can. Stay put. The potential is there for a dangerous travel scenario EVEN IF THE STORM UNDERPERFORMS.

Snow… big snow… even the occasional blizzard are all part of New England life. With a little prep the storm will inconvenience you, no more.

I have made forecasts like this before. In the modeling everything clicks and the storm maxes out. In real life everything ‘clicking’ and ‘maxing’ are a little more difficult. New York City has only received two feet of snow or more twice since records have been kept, 2006 and 1947.

Maybe “historic” is a word which should be reserved for after-the-fact. Dreadful will do for now.

Stay warm. Stay dry. Stay home.

15 thoughts on “A Few Feet? Really?”

  1. you are so right…every storm cant be the storm of the century or THE historic storm,,but they tend to over dramatize….after the fact,,then they can make claims…you were here for the 2013 storm,,now THAT was historical id say. i dont remember that much snow at one time in a long time in recent years…our road didnt get plowed at all for almost two days..it was four feet at the road lol…isnt that the storm you did the time lapse on your deck? that was pretty interesting…now u can watch safely from a distance. lucky you! i have to run and get some bread and milk 😉

  2. Thanks Geoff. I always trust your opinion on what the weather is doing. Thanks for watching out for all of us back east.

  3. Thank you, Geoff- even across the country, with a new job, you’re looking out for us. I love weather but this is the first time I’ve ever felt frightened by it (but still a bit excited!)

  4. I just want to share this you ….

    Blizzard Warning

    The following areas are affected:

    Hartford
    Tolland
    Windham

    Blizzard Warning Remains In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To
    1 Am Est Wednesday
    – Locations Portions Of Central Massachusetts As Well As
    Northern Connecticut.
    – Hazard Types Heavy Snow Strong Winds And Blizzard
    Conditions. Considerable Blowing And Drifting Snow.
    – Accumulations Snow Accumulations Of Around 20 To 30 Inches
    With Locally Higher Amounts. Snowfall Rates Of 2 To 4 Inches An
    Hour At Times.
    – Timing While The Storm Is Expected To Begin Late Today And
    Linger Into Early Wednesday The Worst Of The Storm Will Be
    Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon.
    – Impacts Heavy Snow And Strong Winds Will Result In White-out
    / Blizzard Conditions With Near Zero Visibility. Travel Will
    Be Impossible And Life Threatening Across The Entire Region.
    Also Snow May Be Wet Enough To Result In Downed Tree Limbs And
    Power Outages In Addition To The Winds.
    – Winds North-northeast 15 To 25 Mph With Gusts Around 35 To 45
    Mph. The Height Of The Winds Will Be Late Tonight Into Tuesday.
    – Visibilities One Quarter Mile Or Less At Times.
    Precautionary/preparedness Actions
    A Blizzard Warning Is Issued When Sustained Winds Or Frequent
    Gusts Over 35 Mph Are Expected With Considerable Falling And/or
    Blowing And Drifting Snow. Visibilities Will Become Poor With
    Whiteout Conditions At Times. Those Venturing Outdoors May
    Become Lost Or Disoriented So Persons In The Warning Area Are
    Advised To Stay Indoors.
    All Unnecessary Travel Is Discouraged Beginning Monday
    Afternoon To Allow People Already On The Road To Safely Reach
    Their Destination Before The Heavy Snow Begins And To Allow
    Snow Removal Equipment To Begin To Clear Roads.

  5. Thanks, Geoff! I watch the local meteorologists but always wonder what your take is going to be. I guess you’ll always be my go-to weather guy, no matter what coast you live on. 🙂

  6. Thanks Geoff! I always check out what you have to say – as a voice of reason during these crazy storms. Thanks for keeping an eye on us – even while enjoying your snow free new existence!

    1. FYI — Jack (on a Time-Warner cable modem in Maine) appears in the comments under a variety of names. Obviously, “Jack” doesn’t like me and thinks if he changes his name from time-to-time I’ll think he’s many people.

      Alas, I only think he’s sad.

  7. Your still the best, your style was always more down to earth and with less drama then all the rest [one exception Dr. Mel] and you still give me a better take on what’s going to happen here in Ct. then the chuckle-heads on the boob tube and your 3K away, ain’t life just the funnest thing.

    Be well, Jim Scott-Monck, Bethel, Ct.

    PS: A “jack”ass is never worthy of a response.

  8. Geoff:

    As another person with at least some academic training in weather (mine is climatology), I was glad to see you write the following:

    “In the modeling everything clicks and the storm maxes out. In real life everything ‘clicking’ and ‘maxing’ are a little more difficult. New York City has only received two feet of snow or more twice since records have been kept, 2006 and 1947”

    The hype and drama in weather is part of the media-marketing machine on the East Coast, every hurricane will hit Miami… every snow in NYC/CT is the “storm of the century” -lol. Yet we all know the numbers and the long odds of such events.

    In any event, here in Branford we got about 15 inches (I’m guessing), but the wind of course makes it hard to tell. The storm is up off Boston now and pulling away from NYC/Connecticut. The only saving grace is that at least it’s Feb and the strong sun will help to melt it quickly. On the other hand, my brother called this morning from Jupiter, Florida, to tell me he is cleaning his pool today!!
    .

  9. Geoff,

    Now, in hindsight, I would love to share this as the local meteorologists and NWS Gary Szatkowski are getting slammed. Once hailed as one of the heroes of storm Sandy is apparently a zero today. Such a shame.

  10. Jeff,

    The storm performed “reasonably” well!! But, isn’t there always a BUT?!You will be able to describe this more clearly…..The storm was coming up the coast. That was easy to see. The location of the storm, however, was at least 200 or more miles to the east of the typical nor’easter. Simply put it was NOT “hugging the coast.” That said, the storm moved steadily northward and NOT northeasterly as we usually see its motion. Soooo, western, southern and mid state CT were not terribly impacted. I live in Milford right at the shore and we may have received about 6 inches and a fraction plus or minus. The temps remained low and had the storm taken a more westerly track there would have been a more significant accumulation. It was interesting to me that the forecasters never mentioned that the bulk of the storm was much farther to the east than it otherwise should/would have been.In any event that was the first significant snowfall of our season from my perspective!

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