Tag: Andrew

Yikes – Dean Gets Stronger

Earlier this evening, around 8:00 PM, The National Hurricane Center issued a statement saying Hurricane Dean had top winds of 155 mph.

DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT…AND DEAN IS LIKELY

TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

About a half hour later, based on recon data, Dean was upgraded to 160 mph.

000

WTNT64 KNHC 210034

TCUAT4

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH…MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

There’s really no practical difference between 155 mph and 160 mph. Wind force increases logarithmically with the wind speed. But there’s a great perception difference, because at 160 mph, Hurricane Dean becomes a Category 5 storm.

Should Dean strike the Yucatan Peninsula as a Cat 5, it will be the first Atlantic Basin Category 5 landfall since Andrew, 15 years ago!

The only good news is, Dean will be sufficiently south of Cancun to produce less damage than a direct hit. It’s still going to crush the region mercilessly.

Foxes First Law Of Getting Fired

I’m a big fan of Amanda Congdon at Rocketboom. Rocketboom is a vlog or video blog.

Rocketboom is probably the most successful of the few vlogs that exist. Amanda is the major reason for that. She is very telegenic&#185 – the ‘it’ factor.

I don’t always remember the specific content (which is often worthless minutiae), but I do remember Amanda’s ‘mugging’ for the camera between items. She’s got great timing and a witty comedic sense.

After a week featuring ‘guest hosts’ and the claim Amanda was on vacation, word came today that Amanda is gone. She said she was fired. Andrew, the producer said she left.

I wish it would have been left a that.

This evening Amanda violated “Fox’s First Law of Getting Fired.” She discussed it on her blog and tried to explain and justify her actions while questioning the actions of her former producer.

Amanda, don’t. It’s that simple.

Sometimes relationships don’t work out. It can be a relationship like a marriage or a business relationship, which is what this was. No one needs to be at fault. No one needs to be the evil player. Stuff just happens.

When you defend your side after a relationship dissolves, it always seems like sour grapes. It always seems self serving. It never helps.

A friend of mine was just fired from a TV job. I told her, when she applies for another job, it’s OK to say she was fired, but stop there. Why she was fired is inconsequential and saying anything about it will make her look at fault. Take the high road. Silence is golden.

I hope Amanda does well. I’m sure she will. But right now, I’m afraid a pissing match is about to begin… and everyone involved will get wet.

&#185 – Amanda is very pretty, but telegenic is not the same as pretty. You can be one without the other, and there are loads of examples you see every day.

Being telegenic means you present a persona to the camera that people want to spend time with. You seem friendly, inviting, charming… you get the idea. In the long run, telegenic is much more valuable than pretty.

You Never Forget Your First… Storm

So, here we are on June 10, and the first tropical system has formed in the Caribbean. Winds are ‘light’ at the moment. The storm remains an unnamed (only numbered) tropical depression.

Last year’s first storm formed on June 8 and in a similar place. It became Arlene and was an early non-entity.

People in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands have been dealing with torrential rains from this system for the past few days. We’re talking feet of rain, not inches!

I’m curious to see how this hurricane season plays out. For me, there’s awareness of every system – after all, it’s my job. Most people only perk up for the big ones… or at least that was the case until last year.

Will people hang on every word about storms destined to stay with the fishes? Probably – at least for a while. In years past, we often disregarded them on TV. This year, disregard at your own peril.

When this year’s season is over, and the hurricane count is down from 2005 (as it almost certainly will be), will those who make the connection between tropical systems and global warming make excuses? Probably.

If the count is up, I’ll certainly reevaluate my beliefs.

This first system… this little Alberto wannabe… looks like it will cross Florida and then parallel the East Coast. This time of year it’s tough for a storm to maintain any strength in the relatively chilly Atlantic. It’s also tough for a storm to have any westward motion – critical for it ‘hitting’ land from the Atlantic.

As far as I can tell, there’s never been a landfalling hurricane on the East Coast that moved through the Gulf.

Lots of eyes will be on this system. Lots of eyes will be on the Hurricane Center and anyone who forecasts the weather.

The “A” storm is usually pretty docile. Sort of like training wheels for weathermen. Except when they aren’t – Andrew, for instance.

Those were the ‘good old days.’ Back in 1992, Andrew didn’t form until mid-August. By August 16, 2005, we’d already seen Irene.

Blogger’s note: On the right side of the page, you’ll see links to the Hurricane Center’s official forecasts. Those are dynamic links which update through the season dozens of times a day.

Good Poker Story

I have just finished playing a $10+$1 “Sit ‘n Go” poker tournament on pokerstars. Nothing unusual. I played very tight and held on until there were just two of us left.

The other player had significantly more chips than I did, but I was whittling him down.

Then, in the chat window, he asked if I wanted to make a contribution to pokerstars tsunami relief fund? I had gotten emails that they were matching all online donations dollar-for-dollar. How could I turn down the offer?

It wasn’t a lot. We each took $20 to cover our trouble and entry fee and donated $32 to the cause. Then we played, halfheartedly to the end.

I sent an email to support and about a minute later a host, Andrew, appeared on our screen. He took care of the details.

Here’s the email I just received.

Hello Geoff,

The deal was:

ctwxman: $20

dishmasters: $20

ReliefEffort: $32

Therefore I transferred $25 from dishmasters and $7 from ctwxman to

ReliefEffort. Well done on your result, and a good idea. I’ll see you at

the next payout!

Best regards,

Andrew

PokerStars Support Team

Like I said, it was a little thing. But it was a good thing.

Frances And My Pact With The Devil

I just read the Hurricane Center’s technical discussion on Frances:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL

OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION…SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE

DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS

WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.

Let’s read between the lines.

Frances is already less than 115 mph and they’re worried it is going to get weaker. On the other hand, they… all of us who forecast weather actually… remember Andrew, and more recently Charley. These are storms that responded rapidly to their outside environments and hit land stronger than anticipated.

I think I mentioned last night that hurricane forecasting is attempted even though we don’t understand all the factors, or even which factors we’re leaving out. Hurricane track forecasting is bad – intensity forecasting is awful.

That’s not an insult to those who do the forecasting. It’s just a fact. And, at the moment, I don’t see any breakthroughs in hurricane forecasting on the horizon.

Here’s where the pact with the Devil comes in.

If Frances hits Florida, and it’s a wimp, then lives are saved. But then no one will listen when the next one comes… and the next one could be Andrew or Charley or the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

On the other hand, if your forecast verifies and it’s 115 mph coming in, people will be hurt (you hope the warnings have been heeded and no one’s killed), property will be destroyed, lives displaced.

Wishing won’t change things. Still, what do you wish for?

Frances As A Spectator Sport

The names used for hurricanes are on a rotation. Every seven years the names repeat. There is, however, one exception. When a storm becomes ‘notorious,’ it is retired. That’s where Frances is headed.

As of this evening it was about twice the size and significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew was at this stage of the game. That’s not to say Frances will be another Andrew – but there is that potential.

AT 11 PM EDT…0300Z…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH…

INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA

WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A few weeks ago while watching Hurricane Charley, I remarked about the steady stream of data available. There is less from Frances because of its track. As far as I know there are no weather radars available on the Internet from Haiti, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos or The Bahamas. There are also few, or no, surface observations nearby.

The information is a little more abstract. It needs to be analyzed more carefully and digested. It is not self evident, like looking at Charley on the Key West radar.

There are weather buoys, drifting in Frances’ vicinity. There are also sporadic readings from hurricane hunter planes. And, of course, there is satellite imagery (though the highest resolution images are only available during daylight hours). These are good, but more would be better.

Hour by hour, computer run by computer run, Frances’ destination seems to be locking in on the Florida East Coast. If I had to venture a guess today, I’d say what I said yesterday – somewhere around Jupiter or Hobe Sound.

That’s no guarantee. No place from Homestead to Savannah would surprise me.

If I were anywhere in Florida tonight, I’d be making sure I was prepared. Even with Frances’ strength, most people inland will be forced to weather the storm in their homes. On the coast it will be a totally different story.

Wherever Frances lands, communication will stop. TV and telephone will be limited. Power will be spotty. In some communities, power will be shut off before the storm as a safety precaution.

Most people who live in South Florida have never felt the impact of any direct hurricane hit – much less a category 4 storm. It will be a sobering experience.

My parents live down there, in Palm Beach County. Of course, I worry for them. Their condo has storm shutters and is reasonably well built. The thing it has most going for it is its inland location. I won’t give them specific advice until we get closer.

My friend Wendie lives in the Miami area. Her office and home are close to the Intracoastal Waterway. That is more worrisome.

In a few of the later computer models, Hurricane Frances slows down while approaching the Florida coast. That could mean an extended period of torrential rain and very strong, damaging wind (possibly not hurricane strength if the storm is far enough off shore).

The are really no good scenarios left.

Gene Klavan

When I was growing up, my parents (mostly my dad) listened to WNEW. To me it represented what adult life was about. It was sophisticated and upwardly mobile. The stars of that era of popular music hung out at WNEW and socialized with the disk jockeys.

It was a Sammy Davis Jr., Frank Sinatra, Jack Jones, Steve & Eydie kind of place.

The morning show was Klavan and Finch. Gene Klavan was the comic and Dee Finch his straight man. This past week Gene Klavan died at 79.

I was speaking to my dad tonight, looking for the right moment to tell him about Klavan, when he told me.

I stopped for a minute. Is it right to tell a 78 year old about the death of a 79 year old? And then I asked him.

I didn’t want to pry, but I wondered how my dad looked at death. I think (and he reads this so he’ll tell me if I’m wrong) that he just sees it as a part of life. Where he lives, in Florida, he is surrounded by it.

His life now is the best it’s ever been. He and my mom are incredibly active – much more so than ever before. He says, 78 is an age he never imagined, much less consciously thought of.

I see my parents living forever. But they are so much better at dealing with reality than I am.

Continue reading “Gene Klavan”