Tough Crowd: Forecasting In North Korea

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Blown forecasts are the bane of a meteorologist’s existence. Painful! I’d bow my head in shame and speak in a softer than normal shout after a miss.

I’ve apologized for blown forecasts more than once. Everyone knew.

Some of you have personally made sure I understood your anger. Not easy to deal with.

However, I’ve never had Kim Jong-un as my boss&#185. In North Korea he’s the last word in everything.

Quoting the BBC:

Kim Jong-un says there have been “many incorrect forecasts” because the Hydro-meteorological Service’s methods aren’t “modern or scientific”, state newspaper Rodong Sinmun reports.

Ooh. Bad employee review.

The North Korean leader says weather service staff must “fundamentally improve their work”, because good forecasts are needed to “protect the lives and properties of the people from disasters caused by abnormal climatic phenomenon”

Must I explain how downsizing works in North Korea?

After a bad forecast I’d try not to go out in public too much. Seriously. No one wants to subject themselves to that!

But North Korea. Tough crowd.

&#185 – The lovely and talented Ann Nyberg often called his late father, Kim Jung-“Mentally”-Il.

2011 So Far

By filling out a simple form you allow YouTube to capture Google search results.

Last night while scanning Google+ I noticed a posting from Ann Nyberg. She had taken advantage of a Google/YouTube feature I hadn’t thought about in a long time. It’s called Search Stories, it’s pretty cool and you can do it too!

By filling out a simple form you allow YouTube to capture Google search results. You tell your story and let the kids in Mountain View whip something up.

Here’s a look back at my 2011 so far!

A Night Of Networking

It sounded like a good networking opportunity, so I said yes. My friend Ann Nyberg tells me networking is what I should be all about!

I was invited to an event tonight by Mitch Young. It’s sponsored by Business New Haven. It sounded like a good networking opportunity, so I said yes. My friend Ann Nyberg tells me networking is what I should be all about!

I’ll probably be going back into television, but who knows? There are loads of opportunities I don’t know about. Maybe I’ll find one tonight.

The affair is at Amarantes in New Haven. At the very least I’ll get a really good Italian meal tonight. I should have realized I’ll also have to sing for my supper!

Hi, Geoff,

Mitch Young told me you might be joining us for our Business & Civic Awards event this evening and might also be available to say a few syllables. True?

Hope so, and best wishes,

Michael Bingham
Editor

That little email was the first I’d heard about speaking! The dinner’s tonight. It came this afternoon.

Speaking in public has never been a problem for me. I’ll be giving a community service award to Covidien Surgical Devices and probably say a few cautionary words on the power of social media.

In the last two months I’ve become an expert on the power social media. That was much more unexpected than my being asked to speak!

There’s More To Cagney’s Stair Dance Than Meets The Eye

How could Cagney be gutsy enough to do that? How could the studio allow the risk? There’s a story behind that and it too is on the Internet. The director didn’t know and Cagney never rehearsed it! What’s on the screen is take one!

Here’s where the Internet shines. It contains everything! Seriously.

Yesterday I watched a conversation on Twitter about “Yankee Doodle Dandy” being number 100 on the American Film institute’s top-100 movies of all time. That reminded me of a specific scene and of course it’s on YouTube which means it’s embeddable here.

If you’re not using the Internet as the world’s finest reference source you’re leaving cash on the table! But I digress.

I found the scene with Jimmy Cagney tap dancing down a staircase at the White House from Yankee Doodle Dandy and watched it… and then watched it again… and then again.

I know the film well because when I was a kid Channel 9 in New York City would play it twice a day for the entire July 4th week on Million Dollar Movie.

How could Cagney be gutsy enough to do that? How could the studio allow the risk? There’s a story behind that and it too is on the Internet. The director didn’t know and Cagney never rehearsed it! What’s on the screen is take one!

Here’s the story from Roger Ebert:

Cagney wasn’t a dancer by Astaire’s standards, or a singer by anybody’s, but he was such a good actor he could fake it: “Cagney can’t really dance or sing,” observes the critic Edwin Jahiel, “but he acts so vigorously that it creates an illusion, and for dance-steps he substitutes a patented brand of robust, jerky walks, runs and other motions.”

You can sense that in an impromptu scene near the end of the movie. Cagney’s Cohan is walking down a marble staircase at the White House when he suddenly starts tapping and improvises all the way to the bottom. Cagney later said he dreamed that up five minutes before the scene was shot: “I didn’t consult with the director or anything, I just did it.”

Ann Nyberg and I discussed this tonight at the TV station. She rightly points out back in those days a good story like the one Cagney told might be cut from whole cloth to add a little spice to a movie’s promotion. Maybe so, but I’m going to believe it anyway.

This 13 second clip might be the most ambitious and dangerous dance ever put on the screen.

Earl Envelopes Me — Featuring Ann Nyberg And Her Webcam

It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

My website traffic’s up. I would guess you’re here wondering what I think of Earl? I’m in awe of this storm.

When the satellite map appeared on my screen tonight I marveled at the natural beauty of Hurricane Earl. Not all hurricanes are alike. Earl is classic.

Tonight Earl is exquisitely curved. The eye, 30 nautical miles in diameter, is nearly round. Earl is undisturbed, gorging on energy transferred from the warm waters below.

Few storms look like this. Most have faults or flaws. There’s a reason not every storm is as strong as Earl. A lot of things have to fall into place. It seldom happens.

At some point Earl will interact with land or colder water or the strong westerlies still to come. He will weaken.

I don’t know everything, but I’ve watched a lot of these storms. I am very intellectually curious in matters of science and technology.

Often during storms I chat with my friend Bob down in Tallahassee. He is one of a handful of the brightest minds in this field. Our conversations often center around interesting and esoteric observations. It’s stuff almost no one looks at. We talk about buoy readings a lot. Sometime we rate the hurricane forecasters at NHC as if they were eligible to be drafted onto some “fantasy meteorology” team.

“2 min,” he’ll type and two minutes later a link arrives. At the other end a beautifully rendered map or chart created on-the-spot to illustrate a point. Few people think this way. Fewer have this skill. It’s sort of amazing.

It’s funny how some viewers interpret what I’m doing. This was blogged this evening:

Our local meteorologist Geoff Fox says Earl should not be that much of a threat to the Connecticut coast, but you can hear the excitement in his voice. You just know he’s waiting for the big one.

Really? I just want to grit my teeth and let out a small scream. Everything I’ve done has been to try and balance what we’ll see with what at the moment is a freak of nature! I don’t want to see the big one or even the medium one. I have too much respect… too much fear.

I often get emails and phone calls trying to sell me on a more exciting forecast. Their logic always has multiple ifs. It can come true but it’s unlikely and deserves to be treated that way. It’s easy to make outlandish forecasts when you’ve got no skin in the game.

Ann Nyberg came to the Weather Center tonight. She interviewed me for her website.

Secrets Of The Jews

Ann suggested I call my folks. They are, after all, members of the Yiddish Club at the condo.

Did you see any of Elena Kagan’s confirmation hearing? Senator Lindsey Graham asked Kagan where she was on Christmas to which she replied:

You know, like all Jews, I was probably at a Chinese restaurant.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only Jewish father to forward that video to his child. She’ll still probably never forgive me for not having a Christmas Tree while she was growing up.

If Senator Graham read this blog more frequently… OK, at all. If he read it at all he would have already known where Elena Kagan was!

Meanwhile there must be something in the air because Ann Nyberg (it’s Swedish, not Jewish) came to dinner with her own Jewish question.

“What does “kina hurra” mean?”

Kina hurra is a Yiddish expression I’ve heard and used all my life. I knew how to use it functionally, but didn’t know the exact dictionary definition. Like so many idiomatic phrases its meaning isn’t the sum of its component words.

You might say, “What a beautiful baby, kina hurra.” Or, if your team was winning big you wouldn’t say they’ve got the game in the bag because, “That might give them a kina hurra.”

Ann suggested I call my folks. They are, after all, members of the Yiddish Club at the condo.

The conversation wasn’t very satisfying because they too didn’t know the meaning either, but they’d check. Five minutes later they were back on the line!

Here’s their explanation as recorded live at the dinner table.

Buck At The Olive

No one in this group is the least bit inhibited and Michael doesn’t say what you probably think he says!

On this dark and damp evening Ann and I had company at dinner. We were joined by Michael Buckley (Buck Hollywood) and his husband Michael at the round table at the Greek Olive. I’m not sure what to make of the night, except we had a great time and probably entertained everyone at the surrounding tables.

I pulled out my camera to get you a little feel for the meal, but be warned: No one in this group is the least bit inhibited and Michael doesn’t say what you probably think he says!

[pro-player type=”flv”]https://www.geofffox.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/IMG_0790-4.flv[/pro-player]

Explosion In Middletown

The house shook from an explosion at the Kleen Energy plant in Middletown. That’s around 20 miles from here. Their website says it’s “in construction”:

kleen energy plant.gifAround 11:30 this morning my house shuddered. We’ve been hit by flying branches in storms. This was different. There was no sound, just a compression shock. I got out of bed and headed downstairs.

Helaine was on the sofa. She perceived it differently from me. She said we should check the house. I opened the door and saw nothing. We went to the basement and garage. Nothing again.

The house shook from an explosion at the Kleen Energy plant in Middletown. That’s around 20 miles from here. Their website says it’s “in construction”:

620 MW – Siemens-Combined Cycle, ISO & FERC 345kV Interconnect Approved –Pipeline Delivered – Dual Fuel – Gas & Oil Fired – Water Cooled

Helaine said the shake reminded her of an explosion while we were in Buffalo.

An untrained worker was moving a propane tank with a forklift. The tank fell and the valve sheared off. The propane, being heavier than air, spread out along the ground.

From Wikipedia:

The North Division Street explosion was a powerful explosion on December 27, 1983 in a warehouse at the intersection of North Division and Grosvenor Streets in Buffalo, New York. The building contained an illegal 500-gallon propane tank whose valve was broken off while it was being moved and the building was evacuated. The propane started to leak and eventually reached an open flame. The tank exploded, killing all five firefighters assigned to Ladder 5 and two civilians; and damaging a dozen city blocks and causing millions of dollars of damage in fire equipment.

When it happened Helaine thought a car had run into our house! Within thirty seconds of her calling me at the TV station every phone in the place was ringing.

Right now I’m listening to emergency responders on an Internet delivered scanner channel. There’s lots of activity which seems well coordinated. There’s talk of victims and casuaties. It’s horrific.

I wanted to make sure Ann Nyberg knew about this. By the time I called her she was already at the station helping with our coverage. Stories unfold much more quickly now than in ’83. I’ve posted on Twitter and Facebook and the replies have been coming at a steady pace.

This is a tragedy.

Is Dodd Done?

To me it has always seemed Connecticut is an address of convenience for Senator Dodd. He’s from Connecticut the way ships are registered in Liberia and Panama or businesses are incorporated in Delaware and the Cayman’s.

Christopher_Dodd_official_portrait_2-cropped.jpgJust as I was getting set for bed the Twitterverse started going a little nuts with word Senator Christopher Dodd will announce he’s not running for reelection to his Senate seat. The announcement, if true, is a shocker even though I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen he was unelectable.

Unelectable candidates run all the time. They lose. I assume he figured that out.

He’s run and won six times. Thirty years in the Senate. Quite a record. Alas, here in Connecticut the bloom is off the rose.

Every time a sleazy rock is turned over concerning banking or finances there seems to be signs Chris Dodd has been there. His mortgage deal with Countrywide, sweetheart or not, never seemed like the kind of deal I’d get.

In the NY Times Gail Collins wrote of his opportunism and Connecticut’s skepticism:

The trouble began with Dodd’s presidential campaign when he famously attempted to win over the voters in the Iowa caucus by moving his entire family to the state and enrolling his daughter in an Iowa kindergarten. Iowa, you may remember, responded enthusiastically and awarded him nearly 1 percent of the vote. Connecticut was mortified.

Mortified. Exactly.

I’ve only met Chris Dodd three of four times in my 25 years here. At a UCONN basketball victory parade I jumped on the back of a flatbed truck and interviewed Dodd and Joe Lieberman on live TV.

The truck began to move as I was clumsily climbing on. Senator Dodd leaned over and reached out to help. He has the softest hands I have ever felt on a man!

A few years ago I walked into the conference room as Ann Nyberg was getting set to interview him. I looked at the Senator and said, “I’m just a typical American boy from a typical American town.”

Nyberg was confused. She flashed a quizzical look. Too young to understand.

Dodd smiled and continued, “I believe in God and Senator Dodd and keeping old Castro down.”

We were doing lines from Phil Ochs’ “Draft Dodger Rag.” The Senator Dodd in the song was Chris Dodd’s dad, Tom. Being in the Senate was like being in a family business.

To me it has always seemed Connecticut is an address of convenience for Senator Dodd. He’s from Connecticut the way ships are registered in Liberia and Panama or businesses are incorporated in Delaware and the Cayman’s.

427px-Richard_Blumenthal_at_West_Hartford_library_opening.jpgMore than likely this opens the door for Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to run.

For Republicans this is a worst case scenario. Dodd was weak. Blumenthal is strong and well liked. It will be tough to muddy this consumer oriented former Marine.

Dick Blumenthal is a retail politician appearing and pressing the flesh at more events than any three other pols in Connecticut. I suspect more Connecticut residents have had personal contact with the AG than any other elected official. That kind of stuff pays off.

Now I can go to sleep.

Working

The 20th Century, it can be argued, was the worker’s shining moment. Not so the 21st! Our notions about hard work and a good life have disconnected.

I worry about the economy. Will our lost jobs come back? Probably not.

The bad economy is one reason jobs have left–but it’s not the only reason. There just aren’t as many reasons to employ people when you can get machines or even the customer himself to do the work for you.

Look at all the jobs that used to exist but no longer do. There are the obvious customer service agents replaced by voice prompts and recognition. Checkouts at the supermarket and hardware store now self serve. The gas station too. Monday, my co-worker Ann Nyberg showed me a photo of a ‘helpless’ Dunkin’ Donuts inside a grocery store.

No one wants employees if they can avoid them us. We are a pain in the ass. We are expensive, temperamental and prone to break down. We form unions. We kvetch. We need to be managed.

Businesses like Google where the cashflow overwhelms the staffing requirements are the goal.

When was the last time you heard an entrepreneur with a business model that was labor intensive? It’s been a long time.

What was a department store is now Wal*Mart, Target or BJs. There’s a fraction of the staff. And we’re only seeing the front of the store. Every economy of scale is a reason for fewer people.

The 20th Century might have been the century of the employee, a time when the worker did well. The 20th Century, it can be argued, was the worker’s shining moment.

Not so the 21st! Our notions about hard work and a good life have disconnected.

In the past as labor saving devices came on line workers and their bosses benefited. Now only companies benefit from increased productivity. And, the job market is so unbalanced there is no leverage for most workers. It’s tough to see the playing field evened for a long time to come.

Blood Work

STEF: no way!? who are you? is your fashion sense gone because i am no longer there?

I saw Angie today. She’s the phlebotomist at a local medical lab. I needed blood drawn to make sure the Lipitor that’s supposed to save me doesn’t kill me. I’d like to strike that delicate balance with my bodily fluids, if possible.

I used to have my blood drawn in at a lab in a large medical center building. It’s tall and shiny and there’s always at least one ambulance parked out front. It looks official. Years ago it was a regional headquarters building for IBM. Now you can get you colon scoped there–and I have.

This new lab is in a basement. You can’t make this stuff up. Helaine’s been there. She asked if it reminded me of the subway? Yes.

Angie did a great job. I had much more imagined panic than real pain. I looked at my puncture wound after she’d removed the spike from my vein. “I’d make an awful IV drug user,” I said. That’s my attempt at medical lab small talk.

Meanwhile, Angie was taking two large pieces of adhesive tape and and pressing them on some gauze on my arm to stop a tiny trickle of blood. To heck with the needle. I was scared about that tape on my hairy arm! Before the glue had a chance to set she pulled it off and replaced it with a bandage the size of a nickle. I’m much happier now.

I walked up the stairs and onto the street. It’s my custom to call Helaine and tell her I wasn’t too much of a wuss. As I pulled my phone from my pocket I caught sight of my shoes.

OMG! Two totally different shoes.

They were both black but they were obviously from two different pairs. Is this what stress does to me? At work tonight Ann Nyberg admitted this was something she’d done too. That was surprising.

My family was understanding and supportive, especially Stef who I told on IM.

STEF: no way!? who are you? is your fashion sense gone because i am no longer there?

We’re saving up to buy her upper case letters.

They’d better not lose my blood. I can’t do this again.

HDR Photography At Lake Watrous

There are a few other little tweaks I did which I’d mention, but Helaine gets upset when I fool with Mother Nature.

lake-watrous-hdr.jpg

Over the weekend Ann Nyberg, who I work with, sent me an email with a link to a Hartford Courant column by Rinker Buck. I’ve written about Rinker’s famous telling-off-the-boss column in the Courant.

This time Rinker wrote about a photographer in Litchfield County who is fooling with HDR (high dynamic range) photography. It’s all the rage, though often it turns out overdone and unrealistic.

lake-watrous-components.gifI had a few shots I took at Lake Watrous and bracketed for HDR, but never processed. Tonight I found a tutorial by Bert Monroy and tried my luck. The result is the photo at the top of this entry. The sequence on the left is made from three of the images used to create the HDR.

Without HDR you can see the trees/lake or the sky, just not both together. There are a few other little tweaks I did which I’d mention, but Helaine gets upset when I fool with Mother Nature.

This is a lot closer to what I saw than “Clicky” can provide on his own.

Tech Support

I’m good, but not that good. What kind of crazy industry has so many of its products needing so much work, so often?

So far today I have worked on my friend Barry’s PC (in the Philly suburbs using logmein), helped Ann Nyberg with her website for the new Katharine Hepburn Theater in Old Saybrook, and scouted for parts to help preserve data from my friend Erik’s totally dead laptop.

I’m good, but not that good. What kind of crazy industry has so many of its products needing so much work, so often?

Imagine if cars or airplanes, both of which are incredibly complex, were as dependable as a PC!

Luckily, I enjoy doing this stuff. In a good world, I wouldn’t have to. At some point, computers will have to work as if they’ve been perfected!

Will I End The Night Taste Free?

Ann Nyberg, my co-worker, put the squeeze on me a few weeks ago. She asked if I’d help judge a charity chili cooking contest in Madison.

And so, Helaine and I are sitting in our family room, just about ready to leave.

The more I’ve thought about this, the more I wonder if I’ve bit off more than I can chew? Isn’t the idea of a chili contest to make the hottest, spiciest concoction you can?

I won’t be able to taste anything for a month!

I’ll report back later and let you know if I still have all five senses.

Another Mention In Print

Wow – two print mentions in the past week. This time Joe Amarante of the New Haven Register called to ask about our lack of winter.

I’m not sure “alarmist crap” is be a phrase I’d use again for attribution. It was inelegant and crude. Unfortunately, it’s an accurate quote. Sometimes stuff just comes out.

I think writers, like Joe and Charlie Walsh at the Connecticut Post (who quoted me last week), have a distinct advantage over TV people. We need to haul our sorry butts to the scene of the crime. Newspaper people can just pick up the phone and interview a half dozen people in the time it takes us to drive to some far off little town.

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