TD5, But You’ll Probably Call Her Dolly

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

National Weather Service   Graphical ForecastThe Hurricane Center just gave a cluster of clouds in the Gulf of Mexico the once over. Those clouds are now Tropical Depression 5. Sustained winds are under 30 mph, but some strengthening is expected. TD5 will likely become Tropical Storm Dolly.

The midpoint of the Hurricane Center’s storm track is Tampico, on the Mexican Gulf Coast. Metro Tampico has nearly a million people.

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

rgb0-laloIn an average year we’re on the “E” storm on September 1. So far 2014 has only produced A, B and C.

In early August the Hurricane Center revised their pre-season “below average” forecast to point even more strongly in that direction. Being a few letters behind remains the expectation.

There’s still danger this hurricane season, but less than usual.

Here Comes Bertha

al932014

al932014_inten

It takes a while for the Atlantic hurricane season to get going. The real action is still far ahead.

Meanwhile, out in the Tropical Atlantic a cluster of thunderstorms is being eyed by the National Hurricane Center. It is Atlantic Invest 93. It will become Bertha.

This “Invest” stuff is a recent addition to the hurricane info deluge. It’s a heads up more than anything.

The storm is probably headed to the northern islands of the Caribbean–possibly the Virgin Islands, then northwest into the open ocean. There’s a lot of wiggle room between now and the weekend.

Intensity forecasts say tropical storm, possibly low end hurricane. Intensity forecasts are notoriously awful.

Up the East Coast? There’s that potential, though the most common track would is well offshore.

It will be watched closely.

Graphics from the math geeks at UW Madison.

The First Tropical Depression Of The Season

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common. It’s usually well predicted.

al012014

TD 1 has formed off the coast of Florida. I posted something about it on Facebook a few days ago. At that time the computers were stumped. Each model took the storm a different way.

Things have changed!

The spaghetti in this spaghetti plot is tightly clustered. Even the projected waypoint times closely align. This is what a spaghetti plot is best used for. The closer the alignment the more likely the forecast is good.

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common and normally well predicted.

Tropical Depression 1 should become Tropical Storm Arthur. Graduation to hurricane is less likely.