Tag: Beijing

Nothing To Hide

There is an independent group from Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants in England who have been monitoring the air and issuing their own forecasts which have been much more pessimistic than the official government version. Now that forecast is gone!

beijing-smog.jpgThere’s been a lot of talk about Beijing’s air quality problems, especially with the Olympics underway. What some observers have called smog has been characterized by the Chinese as mist.

The official government air quality numbers have been surprisingly good–considering the weather has created the ideal set-up for bad! Some of us have suspected they’re cooking the books. There’s really no way for me to know.

There is an independent group from Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants in England who have been monitoring the air and issuing their own forecasts which have been much more pessimistic than the official government version. Now that forecast is gone!

From Telegraph.co.uk: British scientists monitoring air quality in Beijing have been ordered to close down their website after their readings clashed with official statistics showing the city was meeting its pollution targets.

Until now, something about Beijing’s air didn’t smell right. Now it’s two things.

I’m Not Excited By The Olympics

I suspect the athletes will not suffer irreparable harm during these few weeks. I cannot say the same for Beijing’s citizens.

Maybe things will change as the games get underway, but at-the-moment I’m not excited by the Olympics. Other than one or two notable exceptions I know no names. I feel no xenophobic urge to kvell for the USA team, though it’s probably nice if we they bring home medals.

Are there any real amateurs participating in the games anymore? Our society has come around to accept that change I suppose.

China has shown itself to be incredibly adept at keeping the world’s largest population under close watch. Now it’s extending that skill set, watching the world’s largest contingent of tourists and press. No matter what is said to the contrary, the press gladly reports on its own troubles. If minders are too restrictive, you’ll hear about it.

I worry about terrorism. I’m less concerned about protest than the Chinese government probably is.

The weather and air quality have been fairly close to the worrisome scenario painted months ago. I’ve been checking meteorological observations every day, finding the dew point at Beijing’s airport in the mid and upper 70&#176s on a regular basis and visibility of 1-2 miles common.

Back in February I wrote of the potential Olympic weather:

So, when the deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau says, “Even if the rare extreme weather hits Beijing in August, people will not feel muggy. High humidity will not accompany the hot weather in August because their climax periods are different, ” I’d hide the silverware and other valuables.

Good call Geoff!

The well trained Olympic athletes will work under these conditions, just as Beijing’s citizens do. They will breath the foul air, just as Beijing’s citizens do. I suspect the athletes will not suffer irreparable harm during these few weeks. I cannot say the same for Beijing’s citizens.

Spinning The Weather Chinese Style

So, when the deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau says, “Even if the rare extreme weather hits Beijing in August, people will not feel muggy. High humidity will not accompany the hot weather in August because their climax periods are different, ” I’d hide the silverware and other valuables.

A few weeks ago, I created a page on this website that aggregates news stories about meteorology. Truthfully, I wanted to play with an application, and meteorology was just a subject I plucked to use. I didn’t expect a useful page.

Wrong. I’ve been reading it pretty regularly and it’s actually very cool. Surprise on me.

I just took a look and found a story from the Xinhua News Agency.

Xinhuanet was launched in 1997 as the online news service of Xinhua News Agency. It releases important news about China and the world around the clock without stop by relying on the agency’s worldwide information-gathering network.

Chances slim for Beijing Olympics to stand extreme weather was the headline. I began to read. The tone is defensive. People are saying Chinese weather might not be great for Olympic athletes. The Chinese don’t want to hear that.

Guo Liwen, head of the bureau’s climate center told Xinhua that records in the last 30 years showed that Beijing’s average temperature in August is 24.9 degrees centigrade, relatively genial weather for the athletes.

He noted that there is no need to worry about the hot weather, adding that the data of 29.8 degrees centigrade as average August Beijing temperature cited by some foreign media are incorrect.

“The 29.8 degrees centigrade is the average highest temperature in August,” he said.

Yeah – right. How awful to actually use the more meaningful numbers!

Hello. The athletes aren’t worried about averages. They’re worried about what it’s going to be like in the heat of the day. 29.8&#186C equals 86&#186 Fahrenheit. Not the worst, but still a bit warm for strenuous outdoor activity.

I went to Weather Underground’s incredibly useful trip planner to see what the real story is.

  • There is a 22% chance of a Hot Day (temperature over 90°F / 32°C).

    (37 days out of 170 in historical record)

    Most consecutive days found in historic record: 5

  • There is a 33% chance of a Cloudy Day.

    (48 days out of 147 in historical record)

    Most consecutive days found in historic record: 4

  • There is a 72% chance of a Sweltering Day (dew point over 70°F / 21°C).

    (123 days out of 170 in historical record)

    Most consecutive days found in historic record: 15

So, when the deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau says, “Even if the rare extreme weather hits Beijing in August, people will not feel muggy. High humidity will not accompany the hot weather in August because their climax periods are different, ” I’d hide the silverware and other valuables.

Technically speaking, are they smoking crack over there?

Out Of Bandwidth

In England, the BBC has just started streaming TV shows through a proprietary program call iPlayer. People must be watching because the ISPs (the companies that deliver the Internet to you) are worried.

From DownloadSquad: iPlayer is causing all sorts of other trouble for ISPs. The player, built for viewing and downloading popular television shows onto computers through the special application is taking a toll on the ISPs bandwidth. So much so that they are looking for compensation from the BBC, threatening to initiate traffic shaping that would slow down service and render the player unusable if they don’t pay up.

I had been thinking about this on my own before the British scare. Internet bandwidth isn’t infinite. There are choke points all over the place that can get swamped with traffic. High quality video is about the most bandwidth intensive you can run!

I wasn’t too concerned about the BBC originally. My worry is closer to home. Imagine the traffic for NBC and the Olympics.

From the NY Times: NBC Universal Sports will stream 2,200 hours of live Summer Games coverage free from Beijing next year on its Web site, nbcolympics.com.

It is the first time that NBC, or any network, has carried the Olympics on the Internet. NBC has shown six of the past nine Olympics since 1992.

China Makes Artificial Rain for Beijing

Chinese weather specialists used chemicals to engineer Beijing’s heaviest rainfall of the year, helping to relieve drought and rinse dust from China’s capital, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Friday. The Los Angeles Times relayed this story from China yesterday.

I’m not an expert in weather modification, but I know a little about it. Cloud seeding has been tried in the past and the results are usually less than desired.

Let me start at the essence – to see a cloud, you need a cloud. So, if you’re thinking of going to the Gobi and planting flowers, forget it.

You also need the proper temperature structure. Cloud seeding promotes the formation of ice crystals which, being too heavy to remain suspended in the cloud, fall to earth, melting on the way down. Voila – it’s rain.

I am worried that someone in China is selling a bill of goods to the government – making this seem more reliable than it really is. The fact that a single episode is squarely credited with record rainfall seems foolhardy at best and certainly non-scientific.

In science, when something happens without proper controls and protocols being in place, it’s called anecdotal evidence. It is interesting to look at, and probably spurs more study, but you can’t draw conclusions from anecdotes.

From the article, it looks like that’s just what they’ve done!

More important than the lack of rain is the terrible condition of Chinese air quality – the reason they needed this rain in the first place.

Judging by video I’ve seen, and first hand reports from friends and relatives who’ve visited, China’s air is not fit for breathing! City vistas are yellow with haze.

I just did a quick check on the weather in Beijing (not their most industrial city) and found a few hours yesterday when the reported weather condition was “smoke!”

We’re not perfect here, but many of the pollutants China is putting into the atmosphere have been brought under control in the states (many – not all, by any means). That means, probably for the cost savings, China has chosen not to use currently available technology.

I’m not a big worrier when it comes to human induced climate modification (aka – global warming), but if you are, what’s being done in Beijing should scare the daylights out of you. Whatever moisture falls from seeding is moisture unavailable for cloudiness (and rain) downstream.

There was once a commercial where the tag line was, “It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature.” Correct.

Instant China

My friend Wendie is in China on business. She has been sending emails to a group of people, emails I’ll continue to compile and then host when she returns.

She doesn’t think there’s anything special in the writing. Maybe so. Maybe I’m more impressed that I get to hear what’s going on in nearly real time.

Tonight, after getting an email, I quickly replied and said I was on Instant Messenger. She had no IM client on the laptop she was using (and, it being a work laptop, couldn’t install one). I suggested AIM Express.

I’m not sure how I found out about this little program, but it allows you to use AOL Instant Messenger from any computer, just by using your web browser. Ingenious.

A few seconds later, Wendie was on live from Beijing.

It’s not like there was earth shattering news to discuss. She told me how polluted and dirty Beijing is and some of the things that were going on. I told her how a hillside in Laguna Beach, CA gave way this morning.

We didn’t chat long, but it was one of those high tech moments when the world seems a little smaller.

I’m naive here, aren’t I? This technology is used by others in just this way, every single day.

I’m sure there are students at Yale, just down the street from where I work, having Instant Messenger conversations back to Asia (or wherever) every hour of every day. To them it’s commonplace. To me it’s cool and new.

You’ve got to keep up with this technology or be swept under by others who do.