Why Wilma Scares Me

Just in case you’re counting, Hurricane Wilma is currently 1735 miles southwest of me. That’s ‘as the crow flies’ miles. Because this hurricane is ready to make a sweeping right hand turn, it would have to travel significantly farther.

How can I be worried about something 1735 miles away? It’s easy – I’ve seen this scenario before. I didn’t live it. It predates me. I’ve studied it because it is the benchmark for New England hurricane grief.

Before you feel my pain, let me talk a little about my parents. They’re ensconced in Boynton Beach, FL. Hurricane Wilma is 640 miles south-southwest of them.

As it stands now, the official Hurricane Center prediction takes Wilma right over… or reasonably close to them. Though the storm will be coming over land, it’s swampy land. There’s warm water and low friction in the Everglades. It’s not perfect for a hurricane but it won’t kill it either.

My folks have hurricane shutters and live in a substantial building. I think they’ll be OK, though I’ll revisit this with them later today.

Here’s the one bit of good news. Hurricane Wilma will be ‘booking’ as she passes through Florida. Coast-to-coast will be 10, maybe 12 hours. The faster Hurricane Wilma moves, the sooner the trouble is over.

Nature adapts to this kind of trouble. Palm trees have decidedly less wind resistance than the deciduous trees we have here in Connecticut.

The Hurricane Center forecasts 110 mph winds at landfall in Florida, dropping to 80 mph by the time the storm reemerges in the Atlantic&#185. Even 80 mph, a small hurricane, is substantial if it passes close by. Most of us have never experienced 80 mph winds… and we’ve all seen plenty of wind damage.

The Hurricane Center used to talk about 80 mph storms as minimal hurricanes. They don’t anymore. That’s a change for the better.

I am anticipating moderate to severe damage on the West Coast of Florida with minimal to scattered moderate damage on the East Coast. There will be a much smaller radius of damage in the east.

Once the storm leaves Florida the guessing game begins. It will really accelerate. This is the part that starts resembling the Hurricane of ’38.

From PBS’ American Experience: Within 24 hours, the storm ripped into the New England shore with enough fury to set off seismographs in Sitka, Alaska. Traveling at a shocking 60 miles per hour — three times faster than most tropical storms — it was astonishingly swift and powerful, with peak wind gusts up to 186 m.p.h. The storm without a name turned into one of the most devastating storms recorded in North America. Over 600 people were killed, most by drowning. Another hundred were never found. Property damage was estimated at $300 million — over 8,000 homes were destroyed, 6,000 boats wrecked or damaged.

Though the storm struck Connecticut’s coast in Fairfield County, the strongest damage was experienced at the opposite end of the state and into Rhode Island.

Here’s what’s most troubling. A storm barreling up the East Coast will leave minimal time for warning. Look at the map. Florida to New Jersey in 24 hours! I couldn’t drive it that quickly.

To get a Hurricane Warning out 24 hours in advance would mean alerting most of the Northeast. An error of a few degrees in course could mean Atlantic City versus Boston.

And where would all these people go? Imagine sending everyone in Coastal New England west on I-95!

This is the worst case scenario. A direct hit to New England would cause as much destruction, and possibly as many deaths, as the unpredicted storm in 1938!

The current projections bring Hurricane Wilma far enough east to spare New England. But there is very little margin for error over a five day forecast. I’m certainly not confident in it. Just a few degrees off…

So now we wait and watch. Like I said, there will be lots of phone calls to Florida tomorrow. I want to make sure my parents have every possible advantage. Then we’ll bring the worries closer to home.

Hurricane Wilma scares me to the bone.

&#185 – The Hurricane Center readily admits, of all the things it does, predicting intensity is the thing it does worst.

Katrina Heads West

When I called my folks yesterday to give them their “Katrina heads-up,” I immediately heard the discomfort in my mom’s voice. It’s not that she didn’t feel they could weather a hurricane. It’s that she already has.

Even if it creates no significant damage, a hurricane is a major inconvenience. My mom and dad remember the days without power, phone and air conditioning. Who wants to repeat that?

She said they were prepared in the things you’re supposed to have: lanterns, water, food, batteries.

I wish I could say they were off the hook. The definitely are not. The predicted track brings Katrina perilously close to Boynton Beach early Friday morning.

A hurricane is bad enough during the day. In the dark of night, it’s worse.

The only good news is the hope Katrina will stay a minimal hurricane. Much of South Florida is built to easily survive a category one storm.

This isn’t my last post on this storm.

The Tire – The Conclusion

I woke this morning to find a message from someone at AAA in Connecticut on my voice mail. I returned the call and found he had been in touch with his Florida counterpart and had gotten to the bottom of my waiting problem from last night.

There was a longstanding problem with the tow truck operator. I have been told (and I believe) that there will be an in person trip to see him and a warning that this has happened the last time.

It is possible, because I’m TV boy, that I’ve gotten better or more thorough service here. I really don’t know. I will say there’s never a “Do you know who I am?” moment. I never bring it up.

However, I am not shy about letting my thoughts be known when a company has let me down and I find most want to be responsive. I try to write, but be succinct.

Sometimes that means making a complex story less so by leaving out details – details that might benefit me. Brevity is more important. A short, well written letter will get more response than something that needs to be waded through.

The Connecticut AAA manager offered to reimburse me for the valet who finally did the job. I said no, I didn’t want anything. He then said he would extend my membership six months – I accepted. I felt this wasn’t actually the same as money, since we hardly ever need AAA. It’s like insurance.

Meanwhile, my parents’ car sat in the parking lot with the donut on the left rear tire.

This morning, about 11:00 AM, one of my parents neighbors came by to tell them the donut was flat! Unreal. He also came by to offer his miniature compressor so we could inflate it.

That a neighbor of theirs would have a fully functional miniature compressor, in its original box and in pristine condition is no surprise. We’re in a community of people who have survived because they’re a little more prepared, maybe a little more anal.

The tire was finally repaired at BJ’s here in Boynton Beach. Larry, the technician, looked and looked. It was almost as if the tire had healed itself. Finally he found what we think is the actual leak, from the valve stem.

So, it’s mid-afternoon and we’re pretty much where we were yesterday afternoon. Tonight I’ll be taking my parents out for their 57th wedding anniversary.

Frances – The Back Story

This week, people all over Florida will be reminded why the state was sparsely populated until the 50s – it’s really hot and humid.

I spoke to my folks this afternoon. They have phone service, but no electricity. As far as they can tell there is no electricity at all in Boynton Beach. Their condo has begun to steam up and they spent much of today out of doors.

Undoubtedly, there are more people with phone service than working phones. What I mean is, in many places the phone lines work, but cordless phone base units need power from the wall! If those people would only plug in an old fashioned phone, they’d be back in touch.

In my folks’ kitchen, whatever is left in the freezer has melted enough to send rivulets of water down the outside of their refrigerator. I told my mom to just open it up and empty it out, because anything left is now unfit for human consumption.

Back in the very late 60s I lived in Lake Worth, Florida without air conditioning. You get used to anything, I suppose. But, looking back, it was brutal. I wish my folks wouldn’t have to undergo that same experience.

There’s no timetable for getting their power back on, though I hope the average age of the residents will spark the electric company to go to extra human efforts.

To The Mall

There was some thought of visiting my friend Paul in New York this weekend, but when that didn’t work out, I asked Helaine and Steffie what they wanted to do. Mall.

Hey, I asked.

My friend Peter Mokover (gratuitous mention) summarized it properly on the phone. “Girl’s stores.” He’s right, that’s what malls are all about.

In many ways this is similar to gifts given to couples. Yes, it’s for them… but it’s really for her.

We headed out to West Farms Mall, about 45 minutes from here. First stop was Dunkin’ Donuts. I picked up a cup of coffee and the spied something new in the baked goods rack – Low Carb Bagels.

Low Carb Bagels! How is that possible? Is there anything less friendly to carb counters than a bagel.

I bought the bagel.

Before I left the counter I asked if there was any information on this bagel? Was it 10% lower, 20%, 80%? The woman serving me didn’t know. Later I went to the Dunkin’ Donuts website. No info there either.

The bagel was fine. It seemed to be coated with cheese. I’m really not sure. I just wish I could find out what it is.

We went to the mall. Peter’s right – girl’s stores.

I spent some time at the bookstore, Radio Shack and The Discovery Channel Store, but there’s nothing as compelling to me as Abercrombie and Fitch is to Steffie. I also made 3-4 calls to my parents in Boynton Beach. Hurricane Frances has them trapped inside. They’re comfortable, well fed and with friends, but without TV, computer, air conditioning or electricity.

Before we left, we had dinner at the Rainforest Cafe. Wow. I have never seen a business built so much on merchandising. Even the menus had warnings about taking them, because they were for sale in the store… which you walk through to go inside.

My burger was good and the three of us split a “Volcano.”

Here’s the bottom line. It was really nice to spend the day with my family. It is a pleasure we don’t have all the time and I savor it.

My Father The Plagiarist

In January, when I went to visit my folks in Boynton Beach, FL, I wrote about the egrets who inhabit a tree at their condo complex. It was one of my favorite entries (in an earlier, more genteel day it would have been considered an essay).

My dad asked, and I gave permission, for my words to be published in their condo newsletter. That has just taken place. There’s only one problem. Only residents can write for the paper. So, my observations of the egrets are now my father’s…. in the first person.

I’m not angry. No, really, I’m not. I’m much more interested in people reading this amazing story of a tree that is also a home. But, should someone compliment his writing, he’d better fess up.