Oops, I Did It Again

This is not good. I hate it when a forecast is bad… for a variety of reasons.

Today it’s fairly glaring. I called for early morning fog to be burned off by midday. But, here it is nearly 1:00 O’clock and the fog has lifted from ground level but remains firmly entrenched a few hundred feet above as a gloomy overcast.

If the temperature would have reached the 70&#176 mark, as I forecast, the fog would be gone. But the temperature forecast will also be a bust. Right now, it’s only 55&#176

So, what do you do in a situation like this? I will not hide it. I know some, maybe most, forecasters will just make believe it didn’t happen. I personally couldn’t do that. Years ago, I had a conflict with a boss who never wanted me to acknowledge an error in forecasting. After all, people who didn’t watch yesterday are now being told you were wrong.

The second thing I’ll do, as soon as I’m finished writing, is to reanalyze the situation and see what went wrong. This probably has to do with a low pressure system off the Carolina coast. It has been removed from the upper wind patterns and difficult to exactly predict.