I Deny I’m A Denier

[M]ore than half of TV weather reporters don’t believe in human-induced climate change, even as our poisoned weather grows more extreme.

I walked into work and fired up my laptop. There’s a ritual I follow when forecasting. I opened some maps and charts then Facebook and Twitter. That means I was about sixty seconds into my work day when I read Ed Stannard’s tweet.

@EdStannardNHR

Is @geofffox a climate-change denier? What say you Geoff? bit.ly/wl7zn4 #ctweather #climatechange

Ed’s with the New Haven Register. He’s a good guy who was always fair during my estrangement from Channel 8. I’ve also served as his expert on weather stories.

Ed’s tweet was triggered by a story on ThinkProgress.org: “Forecast The Facts Exposes America’s Climate-Denier TV Weathermen.”

America’s television meteorologists are the primary source of climate information for most Americans, and are second only to scientists — who have much less access to the general public — in the level of trust they are given. Yet more than half of TV weather reporters don’t believe in human-induced climate change, even as our poisoned weather grows more extreme.

Lest there be any question whether the ThinkProgress story has a bias, let me repeat the last eight words: “even as our poisoned weather grows more extreme.”

Inside is a list of quotes from meteorologists across America. Some are pretty off-the-wall crazy. Others are just skeptical. Most are measured.

Here’s mine:

“My life would be easier if I was a believer! All my non-meteorologist friends are global warming adherents. Faith doesn’t come to you just because it’s a desirable trait.”

Ooh! Geoff Fox, you climate denying bastard! Except I’m not.

Being unconvinced of the efficacy of the Global Warming doomsayers isn’t the same as saying my mind is made up. I am not convinced. I’m still listening. Let’s call me a Global Warmer doubter.

As is so often the case with Global Warming adherents if you don’t agree you’re evil or bought off or both! It’s a complex issue made more difficult because it’s become a rancorous political fight instead of a scientific debate.

Life Would Be Easier If I Was A Believer

I had one of my semi-annual global warming battles with Ira Flatow today. Ira hosts NPR’s Science Friday. Like the vast majority of Americans Ira believe’s there’s human induced global warming. Me, not so much.

The most interesting part was when Ira wrote, “Geoff, you’re a smart guy. What’s in it for you?”

He believes so strongly he can’t understand how anyone could not. I respect that though it puts me in a difficult position.

I had a similar discussion in the newsroom with Matt Kauffman and Rick Green&#185

I’m not going to go into my reasons now. I have written about them on the blog before.

My life would be easier if I was a believer! All my non-meteorologist friends are global warming adherents. Faith doesn’t come to you just because it’s a desirable trait.

Shame.

&#185 – Let me be a groupie here for a second. These guys are real newspapermen. It’s a treat to sit in the same newsroom as them every day.

Science Friday’s One Sided Global Warming Debate

This was the equivalent of inviting Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo to debate whether Churchill was a statesman!

The radio was on in the bathroom as I got ready for work this afternoon. It was Ira Flatow and Science Friday on NPR. I’m a regular listener. I’ve even written to Ira asking if I might fill-in when he’s on vacation–a request never answered.

But I digress.

As I listened this afternoon I steamed. The topic was “Weathercasters and Climate Change.” The panel was Ira and three proponents of the theory that links humans to global warming. There were no on-camera/on-mic meteorologists. No skeptics! Only adherents.

This was the equivalent of inviting Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo to debate whether Churchill was a statesman!

Hello? Where’s the balance?

If you’ve read this blog any length of time you know I’m one of those meteorologists today’s panelists were scorning. That might be a surprise because my political leanings, how I feel about our environment and my thoughts on our dependence on foreign sources of fossil fuel are decidedly liberal and environmentally oriented. I don’t fit the anti-global warming mold.

Among my non-meteorologist friends I’m the outlier. Most of my forecaster friends, who run the political spectrum from right-to-left, agree with me.

“How can you feel that way?” is a question I’ve been asked more than once. It’s always asked with disdain by a person who has the Earth’s best interests at heart.

It begins with my inherent mistrust of any long range computer modeling. I use models all the time and always with some trepidation. Without computer modeling forecasts would be back where forecasts were in the fifties! Weather prediction is much more accurate now and having computers do much of the heavy lifting is one reason why.

As computer models crunch the numbers they use their earlier forecasts as a basis for later ones. Over time it’s a forecast of a forecast of a forecast. Errors thrown in early in the process, even small errors, multiply through time.

There are surely errors also introduced early on in global climate modeling. The atmosphere is incredibly complex. The models must take shortcuts. That’s not a dig. The numbers are just too large without taking some assumptions.

For instance, let’s say it warms up a little. Now more moisture is evaporated into the atmosphere where it can trap additional heat. The additional moisture also leads to additional clouds. The clouds have a high albedo and reflect some incoming solar radiation back into space which off course leads to cooling.

How much warming? How much cooling? No one knows for certain. Maybe the forecasts are mostly right, but as I said small errors multiple over time.

I can’t trust my models more than a few days out and the ones I use manipulate a more dense grid of observations with shorter time steps! I certainly don’t trust the global models that run over periods of years.

There’s one more little problem that makes me instantly suspicious the whole global warming tumult has become too politicized. Advocates of human induced global warming theories only talk about potential negative impacts. For every inch of a Pacific Island destroyed by rising water how many people living in more temperate climates will survive longer because they’re no longer subjected to the brutality of extreme winter? I’ve never heard that discussed. In real science we should hear everything good and bad.

The global warming advocates say the science is done. I’m not so sure.

Socially it would be easier for me to buy into the conventional wisdom that we humans are destroying our planet. I just can’t. Science says when I have doubts I must raise questions.

Global Warming Skeptic

The problem is, the more I understand, the less I am willing to buy into the Global Warming theories. That’s especially true of the global scale models used in the forecast, and the shortcuts they have to take.

I am a non-believe in the James Hansen Goddard ISS/NASA theories concerning global warming. They receive lots of press, and Hansen is an excellent advocate.

I interviewed him in his little office at Columbia University in Morningside Heights around 20 years ago. He made a good case, accompanied by graphs and charts and his famous colored dice.

I tried to explain forcings and chaos with colored dice. One die represented normal climate for 1951-1980, with equal chances for warm, average and cool seasons. The other die was