Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record
Back when I was in school teachers would always scare me with stories of how my exploits would end up in my permanent record. I believe this is it! – Geoff Fox
A friend has taken to calling this path the “$100 Billion Storm!”
The bad news is the ECMWF paints the scariest picture yet of our run-in with Irene and makes me wonder if I was premature in my last post touting the Hurricane Center’s shift to the east.
The ECMWF weather prediction model which I wrote about a few days ago is closely guarded. Unlike our NOAA computer models here in the states the ECMWF output is sold for a high price. Only a very low-res output is available… and available later than just about everything else. That has just changed.
The smart money says the Europeans want to share their expertise in this time of great need–aka Hurricane Irene. Thanks. Gesture appreciated.
The bad news is the ECMWF paints the scariest picture yet of our run-in with Irene and makes me wonder if I was premature in my last post touting the Hurricane Center’s shift to the east. Actually here’s what the Hurricane Center now says:
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH… WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST…AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL…THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
If ECMWF is right Hurricane Irene will slide up the Jersey Shore, over Newark Airport (give-or-take), near White Plains and then north. We will get blasted. New York City will get even more. Flooding waters over Kennedy Airport or into the New York City subways are certainly possible.
It’s not the time to panic or take drastic action. It is the time to make sure you’ve got a plan and keep your wits about you.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope this storm blows quietly to sea. I just can’t rely on that being the scenario that comes true.
There’s still a great deal of wiggle room. Connecticut is inside the cone of uncertainty!
All week I’ve been wondering why the Hurricane Center guidance has been so far west of the computer guidance? I’ll probably never know, but as of this morning NHC has moved their forecast east. That means they’re starting to lean where I’m leaning.
Of course leaning is not the same as forecast certainty. There’s still a great deal of wiggle room. Connecticut is inside the cone of uncertainty!
Though this forecast clips Southeastern Connecticut the strongest winds will be east in Rhode Island and the Cape.
The timing hasn’t changed. We’ll have showers Saturday, then windblown squalls Sunday. Six inch plus rainfall amounts are still forecast for the weekend.
I am still worried… still apprehensive. A direct hit of some sort is still possible. It just looks a little less likely.
It is likely we’ll have trees, branches and power lines down. This is by no means a total miss.
There’s time to think. Stuff like this often changes. Tonight I an uneasy.
If I could vote for computer models I would vote for the GFS. Tonight it brings Hurricane Irene up the coast then skirting Long Island and staying close to Cape Cod. We still get pounded!
Other solutions are much worse.
I don’t know what to believe.
The Hurricane Center’s forecast is ominous for us Sunday. Still they admit their average error over five days is 250 miles!
I asked my friend Bob down at FSU why he thought the Hurricane Center was so far west of all the models?
Bob: ecmwf has it that’s prob why
that’s where ecmwf has 927mb
ECMWF is “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.” They have a computer model with very high resolution and excellent results. The 927mb refers to the central pressure prediction for Irene. 927mb is very deep. It would be a strong system.
The graphic that heads this post was stolen from Weather Underground. If you’re really into the nuts and bolts they do a real great job–all the detail and minutiae you could want. It shows a variety of models, some of which pass Irene directly over Connecticut!
We’re still talking late Saturday or Sunday. There’s time to think. Stuff like this often changes. Tonight I an uneasy.
I am more concerned than I was yesterday. Wind worries me. So does rain.
I’ve have tracked hundreds of tropical storms and hurricanes over the last three decades. They seem organic. They respond to their environment. They weaken. They strengthen. Doing one doesn’t mean they won’t do the other!
Hurricane Irene which had top winds of 100 mph now has top winds of 90 mph. It is more likely to re-intensify than continue weakening. Sorry. Don’t get your hopes up.
If you chose this week to vacation at Club Med Turks and Caicos, oops. They’er getting pummeled at the moment. A 100+mph gust was reported at Turtle Cove Marina (thanks Jacob)
We are still four or five days away, but the computer models paint a bleak picture for Connecticut. We seem to be part of a very broad target.
Though Dr. Bob Hart’s climatology based graphs now show Hurricane Irene as 7-1-0 for hitting Connecticut (percentage we’ll get a direct hit for any storm, hurricane, major hurricane) the reality of the actual forecast is higher.
I mentioned yesterday there’s a narrow route a storm must take to hit Connecticut. That still holds true. Any small error in the modeling and Irene’s impact is minor. Unfortunately, run-to-run a run-in with Connecticut has been fairly consistent.
I am more concerned than I was yesterday. Wind worries me. So does rain. The GFS model puts 10″ of rain in New Haven with lesser amounts elsewhere.
The most likely scenario is showery rain Saturday with heavier squalls, then wind, for Sunday into Monday. A direct hurricane hit is possible.
I know some of you reading this are thinking how cool it would be to experience a hurricane. Trust me, you don’t want one. The romance is quickly gone when you’re without power or phone or gas for your car or your home has been damaged.
Hurricanes suck.
Right now Irene is going through puberty. Earlier Monday there was a rapid growth spurt. Irene matured and stabilized.
I know you want to read about storms like Irene. My traffic spiked yesterday. It’s OK. I like writing about hurricanes. They are scary. They are fascinating. I know enough to be fearful should a storm strike.
Right now Irene is going through puberty. Earlier Monday there was a rapid growth spurt. Irene matured and stabilized.
Lots of things will affect this storm. Irene’s in warm water which is conducive to growth.
She has a tiny bit of wind shear on the southern side. That will act against growth, but will probably be outweighed by other factors. Because of the shear the growth will be slower.
Interaction with the mountainous Dominican Republic seems minimal.
This is when these storms come to life. Hurricane Irene will get stronger. Satellite images aren’t sharply defined yet. They will be later.
Our impact will come Sunday or Monday.
At Florida State University Dr. Bob Hart’s nifty webpage compares Irene to similarly placed storms in previous years. Since so much of tropical weather is climatology based historical numbers are useful.
We get a 5-1-0. There’s a 5% chance we’ll feel some impact from Irene in Connecticut. There’s a 1% chance we’ll get a hurricane strike and 0% (actually fractionally higher than zero, but rounded there) it would be a major hurricane.
For a tropical system getting to Connecticut is not easy. It has to operate in a narrow lane. If it hits anything on the coast it’s weakened. If it’s too far east it misses land. Other places have more forgiving paths and are hit more often.
I am concerned. I am not panicking. I have done little to prepare at this point, though I’ve been thinking of things we could use.
At work (FoxCT) we are very conscious of your desire to know about Irene and other storms that might concern Connecticut. We get it. I promise we’ll be informative and won’t hype you. Joe is on in the morning, Rachel and I are on at 4, 10 and 11p. We are assisted by Dan Amarante and an excellent newsroom with reporters who care. No one will do more for you. We hope you’ll watch.
This GFS panel is an OMG moment. It shows Hurricane Irene approaching Connecticut on Monday much as Hurricane Gloria did back in ’85.
Attached is part of one panel from the GFS computer model. The GFS is a synoptic scale model. Specifically, it’s not designed to forecast tropical system whose characteristics are somewhat different than ‘normal’ mid-latitude weather.
Unfortunately, a full week out there isn’t too much else you can call on. The GFS is one of the best in a decidedly motley crew.
This GFS panel is an OMG moment. It shows Hurricane Irene approaching Connecticut on Monday much as Hurricane Gloria did back in ’85. Earlier panels bring Irene inland for a significant distance, so hurricane strength winds would be unlikely in this scenario, but still strong winds and boatloads of rain.
It’s still too early to commit or make a firm forecast, but indicators like this one will keep me and my colleagues on our toes.
Unfortunately this new track is more worrisome for Cape Hatteras and Southern New England. Uh oh. That’s us!
I have to get to work (where I’ll be talking about Hurricane Irene at 4:00 PM), but I wanted to write a quick Irene update.
I’d been tagging these entries as Hurricane Irene though Irene was only a tropical storm. No more. Irene is a now a hurricane with top sustained winds of 80 mph.
The latest guidance takes Irene north of Hispaniola. Haiti and the Dominican Republic will get lots of rain and some wind, but not a direct hit. The strongest winds will be out to sea.
The trend has seen the track farther east with each run. That’s good news for Florida/bad news for the Bahamas. Nothing’s certain, but the farther east the less likely Florida gets hit.
Unfortunately this new track is more worrisome for Cape Hatteras and Southern New England.
Uh oh. That’s us!
Irene is still around a week away. This track will change a dozen times. I am concerned, not yet worried.
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE DOWN.
I can’t remember seeing this as a tropical system approached. The San Juan radar is down!
MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE DOWN…MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR SITE…AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.
BCS
There’s another radar at the airport. It’s not as good, but it’s on!
Irene is still a tropical storm. The difference in what Irene can do now and what a hurricane can do are night and day. When the wind speed doubles the force quadruples.
From an observational standpoint Irene is a good storm. The track is bringing Irene right through the San Juan NEXRAD site. 
It entered from the east will be trackable through the radar’s entire operational range.
Here’s what I see now. The storm is changing. By the time you click the link things might have changed.
There is a circulation center near St. Criox–maybe a little to the north. There’s absolutely no doubt you’re seeing rotation around the center.
The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are/will be getting significant rain. The tropics are more able to handle this kind of rainy onslaught than we are. Still, near steep hillsides mudslides are possible.
Irene is still a tropical storm. The difference in what Irene can do now and what a hurricane can do are night and day. When the wind speed doubles the force quadruples.
The main forecasting unknown now is the interaction between Irene and land. The small islands don’t make a noticeable difference. Puerto Rico has some impact, but it’s Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) that’s the biggest deal. A difference of 15-20 miles will make a huge difference. Of course that’s more certainty than the models are providing.
SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.
Florida is threatened, No doubt. The most likely time is Thursday, possibly Friday.
Where? No clue. The mainly north/south orientation of both Florida coasts make landfall predictions for a north moving storm troublesome.
Obviously Florida is under-the-gun. Quite honestly so is the rest of the East Coast (and to a lesser extent the Gulf of Mexico).
A few days ago a friend wrote and asked about a Hurricane Center “invest” out in the Atlantic. It was a little early to give it more than a cursory glance. Invest 97 became Tropical Storm Irene last night.
Irene is a concern!
Not every storm is an equal threat. For a variety of reasons (mostly climatology) certain locations at certain times of the season produce storms that move toward population centers. Irene has that pedigree.
The map of hurricane models at the top of this entry show they’re in reasonably good agreement over the first few days. That agreement actually adds uncertainty because of the topography of the Dominican Republic.
The D.R. has one mountain 10,000+ feet tall! Hurricanes and mountains don’t get along!
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY…AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST…IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.
Today isn’t a beach day in the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. Squall lines are coming through and the storm is still way out to the east.
Obviously Florida is under-the-gun. So is the rest of the East Coast and to a lesser extent the Gulf of Mexico.
This is a storm I expect to write a lot about.