There’s been a lot of chatter about Invest 97, the pre-tropical storm still pretty far out in the Atlantic. Right now the system hardly exists! In fact the map I chose to show (above) is a forecast map because you can’t find it on the latest observed analysis!
In spite of this people are petrified. This storm is certainly worth watching. It has to do with climatology.
Tropical systems more than any other I talk about are seasonally affected. Certain times of the season certain specific tropical basins are ‘open for business.’ Storms that form within those zones also have a moderately favored trajectory. It too changes with the season.
Most of the storms that form where Invest 97 is located head northward up the East Coast. Cape Hatteras is a favorite target. Of course they can also hit Florida or the Gulf or even Southern New England¹. Any threat is still at least a week away.
This is not a weather prediction. Only a fool would predict a tropical system this far out. This is just an examination of what similar storms have done in the past. It should concern a lot of people.
Click for a more detailed mathematical explanation.
¹ – Approximately 1% chance of a Southern New England hit by this storm with hurricane force winds.