Tag: Isaac

Isaac’s Ratty Remnants

“I was just hard-headed. I didn’t think it was going to happen again,’’ said Mr. Leslie, adding that he plans to move somewhere else.

As I said yesterday, “The Gulf of Mexico is beautiful. It is an idyllic location, but no one lives there without understanding the potential downside.” That’s important to note. It’s tough to have a plan that mitigates ‘hard-headed.’

What’s left of Isaac is ratty looking on the radar tonight. The center is inland. Isaac has seen his strength diminish. No land based observation is currently 30 mph sustained or greater. Ratty.

The talk of today concerns Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. Parishes are just like the counties found in 48 other states&#185.

Plaquemines Parish sits below sea level on the Gulf of Mexico and was under a mandatory evacuation order when Isaac breached a levee. The effect was to create a deep windblown saltwater pond submerging everything within its banks. Residents needed to be rescued as the storm reached its apex.

What do you do? Folks were foolishly in harm’s way.

From WSJ.com: About 25 people were stranded in their attics and 65 people were on a rescue list as of Wednesday morning.

Local TV footage Wednesday showed Fred Leslie, a 70-year-old Braithwaite resident, being rescued from the attic of his house with his four dogs and taken away by boat after having called 911.

“It seemed like five minutes and the damn thing was six feet deep,’’ Mr. Leslie told a WWLT reporter after being rescued.

Mr. Leslie said he evacuated early for Katrina, which also destroyed his home, but had decided to wait out Isaac.

“I was just hard-headed. I didn’t think it was going to happen again,’’ said Mr. Leslie, adding that he plans to move somewhere else.

As I said yesterday, “The Gulf of Mexico is beautiful. It is an idyllic location, but no one lives there without understanding the potential downside.” That’s important to note. It’s tough to have a plan that mitigates ‘hard-headed.’

There are weather systems that cause damage in the United States nearly every year. Today it was Plaquemines Parish, but it could have been anywhere and from nearly any type of storm. These won’t be the only homes destroyed by weather this year.

We have amazing abilities to show storms and damage. Weather porn! What we don’t do as well is put it all in perspective.

What happened to these folks on the Gulf is tragic, but not totally unexpected. As tropical systems go the damage was light and limited.

As what’s left of Isaac continues to move inland water will still be the concern. Isaac’s rains have died down, but there’s plenty of water still to fall!

&#185 – Alaska has boroughs.

Tuesday Night With Isaac

This storm has turned into weather porn for The Weather Channel and to a lesser extent the cable news nets. If your reporter is literally on-the-beach don’t tell me how bad it is. If it was that bad he/she wouldn’t be on the beach.

…CENTER OF ISAAC NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…STORM
SURGE FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING…

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.9N 89.2W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.64 INCHES

The Gulf of Mexico is loaded with oil rigs. Some have weather observing gear in use even while the rigs are unmanned. A few hours ago one in the Mississippi Canyon area reported a wind gust of 92 knots (106 mph).

The anemometer on this rig is up around 260 feet above the water line. Surface speeds though brutal are surely less.

Wind damage is caused by gusts, but hurricanes are ranked by their sustained wind. I have found no hurricane force sustained winds onshore or off. No big surprise. This is common.

There are probably some winds near NHC’s 80 mph reading for Isaac, now officially a hurricane. As is nearly always the case the official number will be higher than what nearly anyone gets&#185.

Isaac is not Katrina. It’s not as strong. It’s not as well defined on imagery. It’s just not. It probably won’t ever be.

In spite of Rush Limbaugh’s, “It’s the Democrats’ wet dream that this thing hit New Orleans,” no one wanted destruction like Katrina.

A little oceanography before we move on. There are three factors that build waves and move water: wind, time and fetch. A weaker storm can bring more water if it’s allowed to sit for a long time. Hurricane Isaac has slowed, so that’s now a concern, but again probably well below Katrina.

$15 billion has been spent shoring up New Orleans’ defenses. They’re still susceptible. Not as much.

This storm has turned into weather porn for The Weather Channel and to a lesser extent the cable news nets. If your reporter is literally on-the-beach don’t tell me how bad it is. If it was that bad he/she wouldn’t be on the beach.

I don’t expect Isaac to live up to its hype.

This is not to say evacuations aren’t necessary is some areas. They are and lives will be saved. There will be damage. There will be flooding. There will be post-Isaac news porn with visible destruction on TV.

It’s likely Isaac will parallel the Mississippi Delta’s western edge and not make landfall until sometime Wednesday. Last night I tweeted a Tuesday afternoon landfall. Guilty as charged. Not every forecast is right.

The Gulf of Mexico is beautiful. It is an idyllic location, but no one lives there without understanding the potential downside.

&#185 – A notable exception was Hurricane Andrew.

Isaac Makes Its Run Toward New Orleans

Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

With each hour Isaac seems more likely to impact the Gulf Coast near New Orleans. It’s tough to hear that and not think of what happened seven years ago. That scenario is repeatable, but each storm is different. Certainly Isaac and Katrina are very different.

The Hurricane Center lists Isaac at 70 mph, just below hurricane strength. This afternoon a Hurricane Hunter airplane spotted 74 knot (85 mph) winds at around 5,000 feet. Surface wind would be lower. Objective satellite analysis this morning at 10:00 AM from the University of Wisconsin (they are the kings of satellite analysis and interpretation) pegged Isaac at 50 knots (58 mph).

Maybe it’s 70 mph, maybe it’s less. It makes little difference. Isaac is moving over warm, open water.

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS.

Let’s step back seven years for a second. Where was the worst wind damage from Katrina? Not New Orleans! Wind damage was worst on the Mississippi Coast.

New Orleans dodged the bullet on classical hurricane damage. Instead New Orleans suffered a failure of human design which came long after the storm was gone and the wind had mainly subsided.

Please read this blog entry I wrote early on the morning of August 30, 2005. It was when the outside world first heard a hint of what would become New Orleans’ plight.

A weaker storm would mean less water pushed up the Mississippi to levees now hardened (a little). That is my hope. That’s not a certainty.

As I said, Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

Here in Connecticut the longer sustained period of easterly winds over Long Island Sound with Irene added to coastal flooding and structural damage.

Most likely landfall is Wendesday morning. Isaac will bring pain.

Sunday Night With Isaac

Now Isaac has a few days over warm, open water. There will be intensification. How much? Who knows. We’re terrible at tropical intensity forecasts, even over a very short period!

I have never seen a tropical weather system covered quite like Isaac. Granted, I was a little busy during Irene, still this feels like the breakout social media storm. It’s tough to visit Twitter without being inundated with data and insight. I’m sure the confluence of Isaac and the RNC adds to the sensitivity.

This season has also seen a growth spurt in forecast visualizations. There are a limited set of models, but myriad ways to display them.

It’s tough to go wrong with NOAA’s graphics, but I’ve recently taken a liking to WeatherbellModels.

Isaac came through Key West weaker than expected–marginally. Tides ran around 10″ above forecast. Rainfall amounts have been significant throughout South Florida.

Translation: pain in the ass, not a major impact.

Now Isaac has a few days over warm, open water. There will be intensification. How much? Who knows. We’re terrible at tropical intensity forecasts, even over a very short period!

Tampa and the entire Florida West Coast will be impacted, but like the Keys it will be mainly a pain which will clean up quickly.

As I mentioned overnight there’s a huge question where this storm will go. The ECMWF says the Pensacola area. The GFS points toward New Orleans. The Hurricane Center will be forced to overwarn which will make evacuations tougher next time.

Wherever Isaac makes landfall there will be major pain! Wednesday morning is the likely time. There’s a lot of population on the Northern Gulf Coast, but I don’t expect a major loss of life, even at Category 2 or 3, except if Isaac strikes just west of New Orleans. Then all bets are off. It’s a real possibility and not enough has changed to expect a significantly different outcome.

Isaac could bring us heavy rains in Connecticut, but that’s a week away.

It’s Hurricane Season… Really

Spoiler alert: If it came again today I’d expect the same result. Little has changed. And by historical standards Irene was on the low end of what a direct hit could be.

This is a good time to talk hurricanes because we’re now really in the season. I know it starts June 1, but the serious stuff (and Connecticut’s true susceptibility) doesn’t get going until late August. It’s like clockwork!

I could learn to enjoy the lazy life, but not like today. I’ve mostly been laying on the couch or standing. No sitting! No lifting! Nothing to irritate my tender parts.

I spent a little time this afternoon trading emails and phone calls with Peter Pach, Op-Ed Editor at the Courant. I’ve got the cover story in Sunday’s Opinion section. It’s a little look back at Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene. We’re coming up on the anniversary.

Spoiler alert: If it came again today I’d expect the same result. Little has changed. And by historical standards Irene was on the low end of what a direct hit could be.

This is a good time to talk hurricanes because we’re now really in the season. I know it starts June 1, but the serious stuff (and Connecticut’s true susceptibility) doesn’t get going until late August. It’s like clockwork!

There are two systems currently running through the tropics. Let me dismiss Joyce first. I was worried about it for a day, but it doesn’t look like it will be strong and Joyce will most likely stay well out to sea.

Years ago storms like Joyce might have been missed. Be wary when you see us dip farther into the alphabet and talk about busy seasons. It doesn’t mean much. We’re quicker on the trigger today.

On the other hand Friday is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. August 24th saw the “A” storm. We’re now on “J.”

Isaac is another story. As I watched cable news today Isaac was a story because the Republican National Convention is next week in Tampa and because CNN reporters on-the-ground say the general population in Haiti have no hint it might come there! Wow.

Even if they knew where would they go?

The latest official forecast from the Hurricane Center has Isaac transiting Cuba the long way. Cuba is a mountainous island–hurricane kryptonite. Of course as soon as Isaac exits Cuba it’s in the Florida Straits then the Gulf of Mexico. Both are warm. Both will have minimal inhibiting factors.

What I’m getting at is even if Isaac comes off Cuba as a ratty depression conditions will be there for rapid reformation… or not. Hurricanes are quirky that way.

Earlier today Bill Karins MSNBC’s meteorologist said,

“I don’t see any way possible that Tampa’s going to be completely missed at this point.”

Seriously, Bill, I never would have said that. It’s Thursday. There’s a lot that can change. That’s more accuracy than science can provide.

I am also glad not to be Florida’s governor or Tampa’s mayor who both spent the afternoon blowing smoke and saying how prepared they are. Uh huh. I’m sure they’re ready for 50,000 extra souls all used to be treated like kings and being first in line. At least there will be a full complement of strippers and hookers (thanks again to CNN for that coverage).

More than likely the Republicans will have a poor impression of Tampa Bay weather, but no actual hurricane. It will remain the kind of romantic fantasy hurricane’s always are until you’ve experienced one first hand. That no electricity thing gets old in a hurry.

If Isaac survives Cuba the Northern Gulf looks most likely for landfall. No one is off the hook yet. It’s only Thursday