The Months Of Dread Begin

Now the months of dread begin. I hate winter.

Have you been out tonight? Holy crap–it’s winter! The temperature’s low. The wind’s blowing. Some parts of the state (not here) are getting snow showers.

I brought Helaine’s car to work today. My little roller skate has zero traction in any kind of bad weather. It’s spun out in flurries (really-no hyperbole).

Now the months of dread begin. I hate winter. I hate cold. People find that strange. A meteorologist should love active weather they say. Not me.

Quotes That Keep On Giving

“I hate this,” Fox protested. “There is no skill in making these predictions.”

Blogger’s note: As I re-read all of this, Abe Katz did take my words in their proper context. The blogger noted below is the one who twisted them to his purpose. Life goes on.

Abe Katz of the New Haven Register (and others including the Bristol Press) interviewed me a few days ago about the oncoming winter. The Climate Prediction Center has issued their somewhat broad projections.

“I hate this,” Fox protested. “There is no skill in making these predictions.”

OK–maybe that’s a little over-the-top, but there’s little benefit to the average person who lives day-to-day and not on a seasonal basis. Later in the article I talked about sunspots and the suspicion of a casual relationship between them and the Earth’s temperature.

Fox said he is intrigued by a possible link between solar activity and weather. Sunspot activity, believed to be caused by incredibly strong magnetic fields, peaked in about 2000, and has been in decline since then, into what is called a Maunder minimum.

Activity should be rising again. Space weather gurus at NASA expect another sunspot peak between 2010 and 2015.

Unfortunately, the relationship between solar activity and weather remains obscure.

“No one knows what one has to do with the other,” Fox said.

I later wrote Abe asking, “Am I that negative?” I thought I came off a little surly… and with all due respect, Abe has written this article before in years past. My answers are always fairly similar. I’m not a big long term guy.

This afternoon I got word my quote had been picked up in a blog.

Case in point: Geoff Fox, a meteorologist with WTNH-TV in Connecticut, stated in an interview with The Bristol Press, that “he is intrigued by a possible link between solar activity and weather.” Then, Fox went on to say, “No one knows what one has to do with the other.”

So, I wonder how Mr. Fox would answer the question, “What if the Sun went out tomorrow? Would that affect the weather?” or “What if the Sun started burning hotter by millions of degrees? Would that affect weather?” Most kids in kindergarten would probably say yes to both questions!

Save your breath. I have already called him an ass.

Thanks for taking an out-of-context quote and bringing it further out-of-context. The fact that I do not support Al Gore’s theories (I had the honor of being invited to see him present it at the White House and left unconvinced) doesn’t make you less of an ass for not finding the source of the quote and asking it be put in perspective.

Within context, I brought up sunspots because I do believe there is a possible cause/effect relationship between them and the Earth’s temperature. As far as I know there is nothing other than anecdotal evidence connecting them and no quantification of the relative importance of sunspots in global climatology.

I believe I’m relatively easy to find. You probably owed it to those who read this to seek me out before typing.

Geoff Fox

Whether my comment is published is up to the blog’s owner.

The Giant Gets Slippery When Wet

Today’s discovery–it’s much more difficult to take our hike when it’s wet

It rained this morning. No, scratch that, it poured. By the time we got on The Giant the storm was finished, but it was still wet.

Today’s discovery–it’s much more difficult to take our hike when it’s wet. The rocks and pebbles that cover the trail started shifting with each step. My sneakers never got the traction I’m used to. Each step brought less distance.

On top of that it was humid. The dew point is hovering close to 70&#176. The sweat was pouring off me. Helaine doesn’t sweat, she glows.

For the first time in a long time we took a short break just before reaching the tower at the summit. Mother Nature wins.

We ran into Scot Haney on our way down. Scot’s a meteorologist for the competition in Hartford. He was in the third SUV of a three car entourage heading to the top. These were the first passenger cars we’ve seen driving here all spring and summer.

Interesting Weather Story

Unfortunately this resulted in one of the worst naval disasters in navy history (3 ships sunk, 28 ships damaged, 146 aircraft destroyed, 756 men lost at sea

I hadn’t heard about Reid Bryson until I received an email this morning. My partner at work, Dr. Mel Goldstein, knew of his work. Bryson was a pioneer in meteorology.

So much of what academicians look at is theoretical – Ivory Tower stuff. This is a story about practical meteorology, practiced before computers and voluminous data made it easy… even for guys like me… to tackle.

This was forwarded to me by a friend who reads the highly regarded (and impossible to get on) Tropical-storms mailing list:

I have the sad news to report that Professor Emeritus Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin – Madison passed away in his sleep Wednesday morning. Reid founded the Department of Meteorology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison in 1948 . Although Reid is most well known for his work in Climate,People and the Environment,it is less known that Reid was also a pioneer in tropical meteorology and hurricane forecasting. As U.S. Army Air Corps meteorologist out of Saipan, Marshall Islands during World War II (December, 1944),

Reid pieced together evidence that a typhoon was apparently developing in harms way and commissioned reconnaissance of the storm that he believed surrounding observations suggested must exist in one of the many data void regions. The reconnaissance that he ordered found the storm, encountered 140 kt winds and aborted an apparent eye wall penetration.

Reid then identified a trough of low pressure in the storms path and predicted to his superiors that the storm would recurve into the path of the US Third Fleet. Believing that typhoons never recurve so far to the east, Reid’s superior officers chose to not believe his forecast.

Reid pleaded that this was not a guess, they actually flew into the storm and measured the winds! His superior officers conceded to watch it closely but did not act to move the fleet. Reid tells me that he went so far as to place unofficial warnings (off the record) of his own which he is convinced did save lives.

Then 36 hours later the storm began the recurve, just as Reid predicted and they tried to move the Third Fleet out of the way, but it was now too late.

Unfortunately this resulted in one of the worst naval disasters in navy history (3 ships sunk, 28 ships damaged, 146 aircraft destroyed, 756 men lost at sea (see Henderson, 2007: Down to the Sea, ISBN978-0-06-117316-5 for a detailed account of this incident).

I suppose that this experience went a long way to shape Reid’s views on conventional thought and to compel him to dedicate the rest of his life to the science of weather and finding truth.

Greg Tripoli

Professor

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

University of Wisconsin – Madison

They’re Selling The Weather Channel

Does The Weather Channel look like $3.5 billion to you? Me neither.

The Weather Channel and weather.com are about to be sold. Word is Landmark Communications, the current owner, will sell The Weather Channel to NBC for $3.5 billion.

Does The Weather Channel look like $3.5 billion to you? Me neither.

They’ve always been a moderate payer, taking and losing their talent mostly to the smaller end of medium size markets. Considering what they earn (based on what they asking), they could have aimed higher.

It’s actually a great idea for NBC and will almost certainly lead to ‘central casting’ of local weathercasts at some time. Good for NBC, but bad for guys like Geoff, because our market will be reduced as meteorologist begin servicing multiple outlets. In many ways, this is like bulls servicing cows.

You can prepare and broadcast a weathercast from anywhere, but something will be lost. There are a few times every season when my experience points me away from computer guidance. It’s not very often, but a guy in Idaho working with just guidance would miss it..

Inferiority Is Complex

Often when I watch the evening news on Channel 8, meteorologist Geoff Fox chirps, “Here’s a look at New London.” What we see is a view of the Groton waterfront with the Groton monument looming in the background. Yet the caption reads “New London.” Is that fair?

submarine.jpgThere’s a column from Carol Kimball in this morning’s “The Day” in Southeastern Connecticut. Carol is lamenting the raw deal given to Groton, the town that shares the lower Thames River with New London.

Though normally mentioned first when both names are said together (Groton/New London), mostly Groton gets the short shrift. The home page for the US Navy’s Submarine Base New London says “Welcome to New London.” It’s actually in Groton.

Groton covers more area than New London – 45.2 square miles to New London’s measly 10.76. Groton’s population surpassed New London’s in 1964, and it still leads, 41,336 to 26,174. Yet somehow New London gets all the glory.

Often when I watch the evening news on Channel 8, meteorologist Geoff Fox chirps, “Here’s a look at New London.” What we see is a view of the Groton waterfront with the Groton monument looming in the background. Yet the caption reads “New London.” Is that fair?

Damn you Weatherboy!

Here’s my response, just emailed to The Day’s office… in New London (it is formerly The New London Day).

Dear Carol –

Good grief – I have impugned Groton! As your story points out, if I were hoping to be pummeled for my omission, I’d be much better off picking the town with fewer people to do the pummeling… and, of course, I have not.

The real reason for the New London mention is, it’s the site of our camera. It is tradition to identify cameras by their location, not the location they’re shooting. That’s why we fight the urge to claim we have a camera on the Moon.

Please take heart with the fact that Connecticut’s summertime high temperatures are lowest on the Southeast Shoreline. Yes, it’s true. So, no matter what others may claim, on most days you’re the coolest people in Connecticut!

You probably already knew that.

All the best,

Geoff Fox

I’m trying not to be Benedict Arnold to a town that was once actually attacked by Benedict Arnold.

Tough Times In The Biz

The problem with the Internet is, it’s tough for conventional businesses to compete with something being given away for free! The entire cost/revenue structure of the Internet is crazy compared to traditional businesses.

tv-camera.jpgThere’s a big headline, in red, on Drudge tonight: “CBSNEWS IN TALKS TO CONTRACT OUT REPORTING TO CNN.” It’s actually just a link to a New York Times story which says CBS is thinking of outsourcing much of its news gathering.

I’m not sure what’s going on in my business all of a sudden. I suspect it’s not good.

Last week CBS started taking a hatchet to it’s owned and operated TV stations. For five decades, these O&O properties have been cash cows. No more.

Anchors and reporters, people whose services were fought over a few years ago, were dismissed without a blink. Some of these folks were making seven figure salaries. All were household names in their own communities.

For example, in Minneapolis, meteorologist Paul Douglas was let go. Paul had been in the market over twenty years. If he wasn’t making a half million a year, he had to be close.

He was gone before he could say goodbye.

“The simple truth: Like many other CBS employees, I was a target at a time when there are systemic, long-term challenges. No attempt was made to negotiate a lower salary; it was pretty cut and dry. It’s just business, dollars and cents — I get it.”

Writing in an online bulletin board for meteorologists, a former on-air met said:

NO TV weather job is safe. Longevity makes you even less secure (since you make so much more than anyone else in the building). Make sure you have a backup plan and a solid amount of savings (minimum of 6-months) to tide you over. Live frugally now and put away EVERY PENNY in case you are slashed in the next round of cuts which are inevitable.

I’m not sure I’m ready to go that far, but the business has changed. My competition isn’t just the local stations, or The Weather Channel (always a minor player in the general scheme of things), but weather.com, wunderground.com and every website with a forecast… which seems to be all of them.

The value of high profile talent, people who could draw an audience to a station, seems to have dropped rapidly. If these CBS firings have little or no negative impact on ratings, other managers will be emboldened to chop away too.

The Internet has changed many expectations. That’s fine, and as it should be.

The Internet has freed information from a schedule. Virtually everything is available on demand. And, at the moment, the Internet reports the news without reporters, shows video without production staffs, and sells products without stores. Companies that pay people say, “why?”

If at some point the Internet drives newspapers and TV stations out of business, where exactly will local news come from?

The Internet resembles the oxpecker, an African bird that lives on rhinoceroses.

“Although the birds also eat blood from sores on the rhino’s skin and thus obstruct healing, they are still tolerated.” – African Wildlife Federation.

The problem with the Internet is, it’s tough for conventional businesses to compete with something being given away for free! The entire cost/revenue structure of the Internet is crazy compared to traditional businesses.

Last year, Google had $16 billion revenue with 18,000 employees. That’s around $900,000 revenue per employee. Their ‘real’ operating expenses were only $2.7 billion, with another $2.1 billion thrown in for research and development. Their pre-tax net was close to $6 billion.

Is Google or Craigslist responsible for what’s going on to newspapers and broadcasting? Maybe. Maybe it’s the appearance of hundreds of channels, each with a tiny audience… but it’s tiny times hundreds!

Maybe it’s the Wal*Mart’ing of America; the disappearance of hundreds of stores in favor of one… and the disappearance of hundreds of local advertisers as well.

It’s not one thing. It’s a variety of things, but they’re reaching critical mass.

At the moment, you can buy two shares of Journal Register (publisher of the New Haven Register and other papers) stock for about the same price as a copy of its newspapers!

Journal Register just announced they’re exploring their ‘options’. I don’t know a lot about finance, but is there anything left to sell?

Sam Zell, who heavily leveraged his recent purchase of the gigantic Tribune Corporation, is now rumored to be selling some of their papers. That’s something he originally said he wasn’t going to do. He needs the cash to pay the debt.

The funny thing is, newspapers, radio and TV stations still make a lot of money, as long as you don’t factor in the financing used to buy them. Many were purchased at what now looks like inflated prices. The assumption was their value (and revenues) would rise. It’s similar to what’s gone on in the housing market.

Tonight on IM, a friend in the business said

Sorry to say this, because this is your income, but, Local TV is DOA.

In a way, I’m glad you are at this stage of this career and this isn’t happening in 1980.

You have many things you can do

Again, I think that’s a little heavy on the melodrama, but times are definitely tough.

I am very lucky to be under contract right now.

Blowing The Forecast

This entry has been edited because, it has been pointed out, most of the state was properly forecast by me… just not the city where the station sits.

I went to work Sunday night, handling the forecasting details on-the-air. A storm was brewing.

Though my call was significantly below the Weather Service and was the lowest snow prediction in the state (as usual), the forecast busted on parts of the shoreline&#185. Thankfully, my low number call was good for most of inland Connecticut.

After two hours of sleet and mixed precipitation, New Haven had six straight hours of snow at the airport… but no accumulation. The ground was too warm or too wet and the snow was already close to melting as it approached the surface.

Schools were closed. People cancelled appointments. There had been snow in the sky, but without impact.

Here’s part of an email I received:

I’ve been watching WTNH more years than I care to remember. I think the habit you have of hyping a storm coming our way is unacceptable. I’m at the point now where if I watch the weather forecast and you are the weather forecaster, I can rest assured it won’t happen. May I make a suggestion, refrain from the excitement you seem to possess, when a storm is headed our way make sure you are reasonably correct before you announce the worst scenario. With all your modern equipment you are no more correct than my father was when he went outside and looked up at the sky.

My first words at 11:00 PM were, “My wife asked me not to scare everyone,” which is what I tried to do. Of course with the Weather Service’s “HEAVY SNOW WARNING” in effect, it was tough to avoid.

Yesterday, I went on the air and apologized. I don’t know if it will make the viewers feel better. It helps me.

Bill Evans from WABC was quoted in the NY Daily News today:

“I feel like I let the public down. We didn’t get it right. At the same time, we worked as hard as we could to get it right.”

Exactly, though Bill’s bust was orders of magnitude bigger than mine.

It’s not just the forecast was wrong. It’s that it was wrong in spite of doing everything we could do to get it right. Going back, I probably would have made the same forecast. In fact, a meteorologist friend was giving me reasons to raise the numbers just before air time (I resisted).

This is the most frustrating part of what is normally a fun job. I want people to trust me. No one wants to drop the ball. No one wants to get those emails. No one wants to be quoted in an article, as Bill Evans was, titled “Now that was a flaky weather forecast

&#185 – The rest of the state’s forecast – covering 90% of the landmass and around 75% of the populace, was accurate.

The Forecaster’s Burning Ears

I have my name ‘forward searched.’ If a new entry comes on the Internet, or gets published in a newspaper, and if Google sees it (and they see everything) , they send me an email. I get asked for quotes about the weather all the time and I like to see what people write.

A few minutes ago, Google sent me a link. They’d found a new webpage with my name on it.

The link led to a site where there is an argument going on about me. How absolutely weird&#185. How many other problems must you solve before you get to me on life’s giant to-do list?

The combatants are on a site populated by weather lovers. By and large, these people like active weather and are disappointed when the forecast doesn’t follow. What they do is called ‘wishcasting’.

I think most forecasters overforecast snow. My forecasts tend to be conservative. On a seasonal basis, I would guess I forecast fewer inches of snow than any other meteorologist in Connecticut. No one gets them all. My forecasts are pretty accurate.

The link led directly to a post ridiculing my forecast. I learned a long time ago you don’t do that until AFTER the event.

Did anyone see Geoff Fox’s snowfall forecast. My jaw almost hit the ground when i saw 0-1″ for the shore and 2-3″ well inland with 4-7″ for the northern counties. That microcast is frying his brain or something. Anyone with a half a brain could forecast this storm better than that. Look at this consensus…

Another poster added:

he just went with precision microcast. Didnt even make his own forecast. I guess that leaves you the easy out…”the model was wrong” if you bust.

Followed by the closer:

Geoff fox may be right for THE WRONG REASONS based on the available data its STUPID to forecast what he did. Whoeever said it was based on that POS microcast was right. Thats exactly what he used he didnt forecast at all, use thermal profiles, etc. I refrained from emailing him but its sad. Even Brad Field told me “WOW…hes nuts, i would sell my house if we dont get accumulation on the shore”

This is one of the saddest things ive seen come out of that weather center

Brad is my friend. I’m sure I’ve said worse about him. No foul.

You know, it wasn’t too long ago this stuff would have bothered me. I’m on TV. I understand people will judge me.

Some people did come to my defense. They’ll be receiving something extra for Christmas.

Here’s the payoff:

Well, it look like Geoff Fox’s forecast will verify yet again. YOU are the crazy one. he was right about everything. The sleet mixed in early and i only got 2 inches here in monroe which northern sw ct. Geoff Fox is RIGHT most of the time. he forecasts reality. don’t get me wrong, I LOVE SNOW! but the pattern we are in is not bringing much of it here and Geoff has forecast basically every storm right so far this year. so don’t bash his forecasts till they bust, because in this case, you and everyone else busted.

Ah, sweet revenge.

Truth is, any forecast can be a bust – even one prepared with all due diligence. That’s why I sweat them all out. It’s the most nerve wracking part of my job.

Though one poster accused me of using a single computer model out of the box, I put a lot of thought into what I finally forecast and use a lot of tools in getting there. There are charts and maps and columns of numbers from multiple computer models.

I’m a math geek. I love this stuff.

I am ultimately responsible. It’s my decision… my voice… not some suite of models and simulations. I apologize when wrong. Thankfully, not often enough that the guy who said I’d blame the models would have ever seen me do it.

I’ll tell you a secret. This is real ‘inside baseball’ stuff and I won’t be offended if you’re bored.

My number one job is not accuracy. Please, don’t get me wrong, accuracy is important. If I’m not accurate, people will stop watching. It’s just not number one.

My main goal is to tell a useful and memorable story. I need to leave the audience with an understanding of what will happen. If I’ve done my job right, they will viscerally understand the weather to come.

A forecast is worthless if it can’t be conveyed to the audience in a useful fashion – no matter how accurate

And, in reality, there is no practical difference between 3″ or 5″ or 7″ of snow. They all have virtually the same effect. They are dealt with the very same way. With 3″ or 5″ or 7″ of snow, schools will close, plows will roll, traffic will snarl and nighttime activities will stop.

That’s why using graphics derived from a single model is OK, even when they differ slightly from my ideal forecast. I would rather use an effective tool to connect an idea to the viewer rather than throw it out, especially when its deviation from my thoughts is inconsequential.

&#185 – I’m not going to publish the link and would rather it not be included in comments.

On Today’s Snow

It’s a winter wonderland outside… if you like that kind of thing. As it turns out, I don’t.

Today, I got an email complaining about my forecast. At the same time I got a few others thanking me for my accuracy. One of the email senders is screwy. May I choose which?

Obviously, in becoming a meteorologist, I learned something about snow and wintry weather. It’s possible, however, my most interesting expertise comes from experience. It has to do with the practical differences in different snowstorms.

As a kid, you knew snow could be different. Ever ask if it was ‘packing’ snow?

Nowadays, before the first flake falls, I’m already trying to figure out if it will be packing snow. Snow can range from fluffy powdered sugar to semi congealed ice. It’s not easy forecasting which particular form the snow will take and that forecast is never 100% accurate – not by me nor anyone else.

Today is a perfect example of how the ‘fluff factor’ can vary. There is little in common between the snowstorm that Southern Connecticut received and the one that hit Northern Connecticut! Same system… simultaneous snowfall… different outcome.

The northern snow was light and fluffy. It accumulated gently.

The southern snow was loaded with sleet and freezing rain. It accumulated like the lead blanket the dentist throws on you before getting x-rayed. It will be tougher to clear and leave a slick and icing coating when crews try.

Some plowing contracts call for different prices depending on the inches of snow received. The shoreline plowers loses in this one. There, three inches will plow like six!

The Florida Difference

We went to pick up my father this morning. The hospital is done with him.

Hal, a volunteer, came to wheel him down in a chair. Hal has got to be as old as my dad. Isn’t this rolling exit a quaint tradition that can end?

Driving up and back from Boynton Beach to Boca Raton gave me a good chance to watch the Florida sky. It is definitely different than the Connecticut sky. Maybe I’m just more attuned to looking up because I’m a meteorologist, I’ll admit to that. But there is a difference.

Even with high humidity levels, the air here is mainly clear and the sky is mainly blue. Days that would feature haze in Connecticut don’t here.

Still, the real star of the sky is the clouds. They are white and puffy and well defined and tall. These are towering cumulus clouds – a term often seen in airport observations, but never so literally true as here.

Yes, these towering “Cu” produce the numerous thunderstorms found over the peninsula every day. It’s a fair trade. They’re amazing.

TV 2.0

I seldom do this, but it’s my blog! This entry is an explanation and expansion of a comment left in the previous entry by Mike Sechrist.

Geoff:

If anyone had any questions about the revolution going on in our business you just answered them. An interesting piece shot on a $30 camcorder and edited with software that can be found on most PC’s. It may say Meteorologist on the resume but you should add VJ underneath. I wish we could have seen the deli.

A little background on Mike. He hired me in New Haven 23 years ago. He was news director then, but later became a TV general manager, running WKRN in Nashville.

Mike is one of the biggest proponents of VJs, or video journalists. The whole VJ concept is based on the assumption technology allows greater productivity in TV without injuring the product. If a crew is one, rather than two, people, you can cover twice as many stories with the same number of people.

Of course, the fear within the universe of TV employees is, you can cover just as many stories with half the number of people… and what business wouldn’t cut their costs like that if they could?

I remember counting heads in the ABC control room, back when I used to fill-in on Good Morning America. There were better than a dozen folks on the payroll in the control room. I walked into our control room in New Haven on Friday night. Three! Technology at work.

I produced my little travelogue with a minimal amount of equipment. It was not broadcast quality, but it wasn’t terrible. And, for a motivated audience, where content is much more important than production values, my $30 camcorder is all that’s needed.

Mike worked hard to unlock the value of technology for his station. Going forward, I think the real value lies elsewhere. VJ type equipment can allow one or two people to produce narrowly focused, very salable content. Think of the show being the end product, not the station.

The example I often use is a fellow employee at the TV station who’s a prolific knitter. She’s got the skills necessary to produce a daily, weekly or even unscheduled video knitting show.

Unlike the conventional TV model, older content stays online forever (How many changes are there in knitting from year-to-year?), using search engines and word of mouth to attract new viewers along the way and providing a library of revenue producing programming. In computing parlance, this evergreen content is called ‘long tail.’

Because the programming would be narrowly focused, each viewer would likely be worth more to an advertiser (knitting needles, yarn, patterns, etc). The whole concept of comparing CPM for an ad buy is turned on its ear because there are so few wasted viewers.

To a certain extent PhotoshopTV is doing this now. So is or-live, which presents surgical procedures live and recorded on demand, on their website.

Programs like Diggnation or Rocketboom, which are more broadly aimed, do not fit my revenue model, even though they are using the technology as I picture it being used.

There is money to be made for specialists who can produce their own material. It could be a show on ham radio or child rearing or golf or any number of topics. Content rules! If there’s an connective interest and someone selling a product your audience might buy, the rest is academic!

Even better, distribution is much easier than TV or cable, since anyone can set up a website instantly&#185 and bandwidth costs continue to drop rapidly.

Startup costs for a TV station are in the millions… often tens of millions of dollars. Start up costs for these web narrowcasts can be in the thousands, though often, hundreds of dollars!

I’ve been toying around with an idea for a web show myself. All I need is a little motivation. I figure a half dozen episodes in the can should get me started. I already have everything I need to produce it at home!

That’s crazy, isn’t it? I already have everything I need at home.

&#185 – How instantly can you set up a site? My boss bought an iPhone and set up a website to go with it! If he’s spent $25 on the website, he’s gone overboard.

Bad List To Make

I had not heard of “Bing’s Blog” before this evening. It’s on the CNN site but seems to be more affiliated with Fortune Magazine.

Good old Bing has come up with his list of 50 Bulls**t Jobs. It’s actually a promotion for a book about 100 bulls**t jobs. Personally, I would type out bullshit, but he must feel it’s edgier to write something that everyone knows spells bullshit, though it doesn’t&#185.

Here’s number 37:

Meteorologist on TV

Look good, play with map.

$$: Local weathermen make in the low six figures; those on national morning television can earn millions and reap commercial benefits as well.

How to get it: Be the guy with the best hair and no interest in actual news per se.

The upside: Opportunity to scare people when an inch of snow is coming.

The downside: People actually blame you for bad weather.

The dark side: When a true natural disaster pops up, they send Anderson Cooper!

Forget the money for a sec. The guy with the best hair! Is he kidding?

I suppose when you need to fill 50, or 100 of these, the really well written ones aren’t buried at 37. It’s a cheap shot. I can take cheap shots. What irks me is it’s not a particularly well written cheap shot. I had higher expectations since it comes from Fortune.

Oh – they do blame me for bad weather. At least he got that right.

&#185 – This reminds me. In the next few days I’ll have to write something about my upset with the cleansing of English, as if that sanitizes the meaning of what’s being said.

Geoff To Storm – You’ve Got Potential

Finally a big storm heading toward the Northeast. I don’t think it’s going to be big in the classical sense of the word… the Oswego County, NY sense of the word. But it still looks like a pain.

When I woke up Saturday, I told Helaine early indications were for a foot or two of snow! That’s something I can say to her, but would have never said on-the-air. The info was just too sparse and the guidance had shifted the track radically since early Friday.

On the Internet, Drudge had picked up on AccuWeather’s fearless call. Henry Margusity, AccuWeather.com’s Sr. Meteorologist and Severe Weather Expert, saw what I saw and believed it would be all snow – and a lot of it.

It’s funny that with all our computers and guidance, at some point it comes down to a matter of opinion. Margusity thought the cold air’s effect was underdone by the models, I did not. We’ll see.

I’m certainly not here claiming victory for a forecast I’ve never publicly delivered and which might change after I get out of the pajamas I’m wearing and into a suit.

To me, it looks like a sloppy mess with rain, sleet and freezing rain. It could actually end up being more dangerous than a straight, large snowstorm!

It’s unlikely anything will fall until Tuesday evening. Still, today will be a day filled with viewer anticipation and forecaster angst.

All I want is for whatever I finally say publicly to come true… and for Helaine to tell no one I pondered calling for two feet.

Perspective, I Suppose

It’s currently 49&#176 at Palm Beach International Airport. I’m sure it’s colder inland (aka – here), probably low 40&#176s.

Weather is the lead on the 10:00 PM news. My friend John Matthews, meteorologist on Channels 29 and 12, is the picture of calm in this faux-tastrophy.

Shelters are open. I just saw a reporter in a coat, wearing gloves, with a scarf around her neck.

In Connecticut, we sometimes see 40&#176s in August.

They are saying everything we said last week, except the temperature was 40&#176 colder and we had a wind chill factor.

I am flabbergasted.