Earl Makes A Scary Move

It’s early in the process, but Earl has tracked west of guidance. That means it’s closer to the U.S. mainland.

I just looked at the latest on Earl. This now scares me a little. It’s early in the process, but Earl has tracked west of guidance. That means it’s closer to the U.S. mainland.

This disparity is initialized into the 00z GFS. It moves Earl just southeast of us Friday evening. Earl misses us, but not by much. Too close for comfort.

To some the idea of a hurricane striking seems like an adventure. My parents felt that way the first time they were hit. It becomes a pain-in-the-ass pretty quickly.

For some people the impact is a lot worse.

The fact I’m writing about it here and not on TV means it’s still not enough of a threat to worry people. Trust me, I’ll keep an eye on it.

For the nerdier among us here’s the latest forecast discussion from Jack Beven at the Hurricane Center.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 290314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB.
WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT
APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A
GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT
OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS
AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72
HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE
ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL
WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING
AFTER 96 HR.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

My Sixth Sense And Earl

I can’t tell you why, but I have that same life threatening fear from Earl. Sixth sense? Maybe.

There are two tropical systems currently in the Atlantic. They are not alike. Weather is not like children. I am entitled to favor one over the other!

It seemed obvious from the beginning Danielle would be an ‘outside runner’ staying far enough out in the Atlantic to be no more than a curiosity. On the other hand Earl concerns me and has since its seed pushed past the West African Coast..

Over the years I’ve developed a sixth sense for this sort of thing. It usually works. Not always.

I wrote this five years two days ago:

The Hurricane Center has just christened a tropical depression. Though it hasn’t yet graduated to tropical storm or hurricane status, but “we’ve already picked out a name” – Katrina.

I am concerned by Katrina because it is likely to head toward South Florida, a densely populated area and where my parents live!

It doesn’t look like Katrina will be a major hurricane… but a minimal hurricane is enough for me.

You’ll be reading a lot more about this storm on this site over the next few days.

OK — I missed the major hurricane part which was still well in the future. Still, something compelled me to follow Katrina closely. I was blogging about it a lot long before anyone suspected the kind of trouble it would cause. Even without my post-New Orleans posts it is my most blogged hurricane.

I can’t tell you why, but I have that same life threatening fear about Earl. Sixth sense? Maybe.

It doesn’t make a difference. Tropical systems all receive close scrutiny. The risk is just too great.