It’s common to buzz through the longer range computer models as they calculate what might happen in the future.
As a ‘met’ I know how these things work. Small errors early on expand exponentially over time. Depending on the complexity of the pattern there might only be a few days of useful information.
This afternoon I was looking at the 12Z GFS model when a huge low caught my eye. Temperatures at 850mb (about 5,000 feet) were cold meaning the precipitation from this system would probably be snow in the Midwest.
As I continued to run through the hours the storm moved east. Snow for us too.
Hey–this is a week and a half out! I’m not that good. No one is.
It was the first time this season I’d seen a chance for snow in Connecticut, so I mentioned it. I did everything I could to play it down, but almost immediately my Facebook page began to fill with comments. The same thing happened on Twitter.
It was as if I’d said the ship was sinking. Every man for himself! Buy all the milk and bread you can get your hands on!
If I saw this forecast setup again I’d probably mention it again. I just wish there was a way to keep it in perspective.