Where’d The Satellite Go?

Why haven’t we heard that kind of answer and additional specificity from NASA or the Air Force? What exactly did we think was protecting us against the Soviets during the Cold War?

Since it happened after midnight, aka Geoff primetime, I tweeted and posted to Facebook details of the demise of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. This is the kind of nerdy pursuit I embrace. It was pretty obvious UARS would succumb to gravity and friction around midnight. NASA said so.

NASA NASA
#UARS Update: Re-entry expected between 11:45 pm EDT today and 12:45 am EDT Saturday. go.nasa.gov/rb6tR1

Around 3:00 AM NASA added:

NASA NASA
We can now confirm that #UARS is down! Debris fell to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23, and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24.

And then:

NASA NASA
#UARS Update: Satellite confirmed to have penetrated the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. Precise time & location not yet known

The screencap at the upper right corner of this entry is worth clicking. It’s the latest Google screen for the search “uars.” Obviously lots of people think they know where this 6.5 ton bus sized went. Can they all be wrong?

This morning at 11:23 AM NASA posted to their website:

NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite entered the atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of the United States. The precise re-entry time and location of any debris impacts are still being determined. NASA is not aware of any reports of injury or property damage.

I find all of this very scary. Aren’t we supposed to have a sophisticated anti-missile defense system in place? Aren’t we supposed to be able to localize “incoming?”

This wasn’t some random blip from a crazy despot. We were expecting UARS. We knew where to look… and were looking. And yet we only know where UARS went if “sort of” counts as knowing.

Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics said the spacecraft entered the atmosphere around 12:15 a.m. EDT over the coast of Washington. He said much of the debris likely fell over the Pacific Ocean, with some making it to Canada over northern Alberta and perhaps as far as the Hudson Bay – Seth Borenstein, Associate Press

Why haven’t we heard that kind of answer and additional specificity from NASA or the Air Force? What exactly did we think was protecting us against the Soviets during the Cold War?

This lack of knowledge is very disappointing. Actually it’s scary.

About The Satellite that’s Not Going To Crash On You

It’s much more likely someone somewhere will see the burning trail of incoming space shrapnel than encounter it.

By now you’ve probably heard there’s a bus sized satellite ready to plunge into the atmosphere. It’s the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Originally it was going to decend this evening. Now it looks like overnight or maybe tomorrow. That shifts the possible touchdown point(s) farther east to the Pacific Ocean or the Americas. That’s where we live!

Does anyone really know? No. UARS is oddly shaped. Any shift in attitude will change projections and shifts are almost certain.

Considering it orbits the Earth every hour and a half or so a delay of a few hours will totally change where UARS falls.

Here’s the takeaway. No matter where this bad boy comes crashing down it’s likely to miss everyone! About two thirds of the Earth’s area is covered by water. For the other third humans cover less ground than you’d think.

Wikipedia: Considering that over half of the Earth’s land mass consists of areas inhospitable to human inhabitation, such as deserts and high mountains, and… population tends to cluster around seaports and fresh water sources.

It’s much more probable someone somewhere will see the burning trail of incoming space shrapnel than encounter it. Glowing metal in the nighttime sky will be visible at great distances.

If you’re worried about UARS hitting you you’ve got bigger issues to consider!