Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record
Back when I was in school teachers would always scare me with stories of how my exploits would end up in my permanent record. I believe this is it! – Geoff Fox
“You’d better get ready now,” she said. I am blessed with “Early Warning Pinpoint Wife.”
I wanted to post something this morning… OK, this afternoon. I wasn’t up this morning but you get the idea.
Then before I could fire up the blog Helaine pointed me to the radar. “You’d better get ready now,” she said. I am blessed with “Early Warning Pinpoint Wife.”
So a real post later. Right now my hands are full with radar returns in hot colors. This is a worrisome weather scenario.
It’s not that the thermometers aren’t accurate they’re just placed in locations where a legitimate reading is impossible.
Make no mistake, it was hot today in Connecticut. On-the-air I joked how most of Connecticut was hotter than Palm Springs and Las Vegas. That’s pretty strange for July.
Often I’ll get photos from people showing their thermometers and reading well beyond what I’ve shown on TV. The photo with this post comes from my car’s ‘carmometer.’
The thermometers are lying! It’s not that the thermometers aren’t accurate they’re just placed in locations where a legitimate reading is impossible.
There are rules to follow before a reading can be believed. Official temperatures are air temperatures and are taken away from buildings, out of the sunshine in a white, louvered shelter and over a grassy surface.
My car’s thermometer is over blazing black asphalt. Backyard thermometers often pick up direct sunlight or just some reflection. They’re usually near a house… often one with a heat spewing air conditioning compressor nearby.
Unless I stick with the real deal I’m compared apples and oranges. That’s a bad idea.
Accept no substitutes. I don’t
I don’t have the stats, but I instinctively feel they’re older long time residents of neighborhoods that have changed around them. Their windows are closed and locked–maybe sealed shut.
I was interviewed by a reporter from the New Haven Register this afternoon. We were talking about Tuesday’s anticipated temperatures. The forecast has been reasonably consistent since last week with high temperatures and dew points.
For most people this will just be a briefly uncomfortable day. Flip the switch. Turn on the a/c. Worry not. Most of us are insulated from the ravages of weather extremes. Modern science has been kind to us.
Then there are the people who live in isolation often in homes/apartments sealed tight as can be. I don’t have the stats, but I instinctively feel they’re older long time residents of neighborhoods that have changed around them. Their windows are closed and locked–maybe nailed shut.
Warranted or not crime is a bigger fear than heat.
They will be very hot tomorrow. It will be dangerously hot. Some of these people are isolated from the rest of society. There’s no one to check and make sure they’re OK. There’s no one who cares.
Tonight I will sound like a nervous Nellie, but my admonitions probably won’t be for you. I’m talking to these people living out-of-sight.
I always worry.
Behind us the door to the deck is wide open and fresh air is blowing in. Birds are chirping. We hear their songs clearly because the air conditioning is off. This is very un-Junelike.
It’s Wednesday afternoon and Helaine and I are sitting in the family room with the Phillies on TV. Behind us the door to the deck is wide open and fresh air is blowing in. Birds are chirping. We hear their songs clearly because the air conditioning is off. This is very un-Junelike.
It’s currently 74° with a dew point of 42°! If you’re meteorologically challenged that just means it’s cool and dry.
The observations come from my nearest reporting airport–Meriden. Weather Underground has a feature where I can look back on this date with one click of my mouse. It’s easy to quantify how unusual this is.
The Average High Temperature is 84 F with a historical range of 80 F to 91 F
The Average High Dew Point is 67 F with a historical range of 57 F to 73 F
The Average Low Dew Point is 57 F with a historical range of 47 F to 68 F
In weather nothing good lasts forever. This dry air will be gone by the weekend.
In the meantime today is sorta perfect… well except for the going to work part.
Since I beat myself up when wrong…
Yesterday I wrote and quoted a viewer who was incensed I’d broken into a ‘soap’ for tornado coverage.
We are so tired of hearing these false alarm weather reports. Every time it’s a normal storm becomes a tornado watch. Are you serious people? You’re gonna scare the hell out of old people.
Since I beat myself up when wrong…
000
NOUS41 KOKX 251619 CCA
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-261200-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1151 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS TORNADO IN BRIDGEPORT
CONNECTICUT…LOCATION…BRIDGEPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN ON MAIN STREET…NICHOLS
STREET…AND CEDAR STREET…1 BLOCK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 95.
ESTIMATED TIME…230 PM
EF-SCALE RATING…EF1
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED…100 MPH
PATH WIDTH…100 YARDS
PATH LENGTH…0.15 MILESTHE DAMAGE REPORTED IN EASTON AND TRUMBULL WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DAMAGE CREATED
BY A TORNADO
.15 miles is a little less than 800 feet or nearly three times the distance of a football field. In a densely packed city a path that length covers lot of people and property. Thankfully no one was killed and injuries were light.
For instance here’s the transcript from a voicemail I received. It was sent during a live wall-to-wall cut-in. A tornado warning was in effect.
We had some dicey weather in the state today. Tornado warnings went up between 2:00 and 3:00 PM.
We were on it at work, but who at home is really prepared for the possibility of tornadoes? People watch and hear my words, but how they react is anyone’s guess.
For instance here’s the transcript from a voicemail I received. It was sent during a live wall-to-wall cut-in. A tornado warning was in effect.
We are so tired of hearing these false alarm weather reports. Every time it’s a normal storm becomes a tornado watch. Are you serious people? You’re gonna scare the hell out of old people.
We pre-empted “One Life To Live.” This guy must be a big fan!
I’m not sure it was a tornado. Probably.
At Bridgeport the wind gusted to 75 mph at 2:23PM, then six minutes later to 78 mph. If memory serves me (and my friend Bob who tipped me off) that’s the highest officially recorded gust since Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
We’ll know better tomorrow when the Weather Service takes its survey and makes the official declaration.
In the end though what difference does it make? The damage was as bad as anything a tornado causes.
Not long after the voicemail I got this plain email.
Geoff: This may be silly but you are being talked about with a lot of admiration today. I’m in Rochester, NY and a viewer of yours wrote on a soap board how you came on TV during One Life To Live to talk about a possible tornado warning. You APOLOGIZED for interrupting the show. This never, never happens. And we often talk about how the soap fans are treated with such a lack of respect by television reporters. They interrupt the soaps when they would never interrupt a sporting event. I just wanted to thank you from here in Rochester, NY for respecting the soap viewer. It is much appreciated and you are becoming a hero on the board.
Maybe I should send her to the phone message guy?
How has weather casting changed since you came to WTNH?
I’m currently answering all your questions. Read more about it here.
Jim writes,”How has weather casting changed since you came to WTNH?”
Immensely! Computers are the difference in two ways.
First, faster computers and better data networks have enabled better computer modeling. The forecasts I make now are light years ahead of what I did when I got here.
We have an eight day forecast and even though I admit eight days might be pushing it, back in the beginning there was no way to even attempt it!
Second, better computer graphics. We can show you things visually to help make our point. These computer systems are renderless, meaning as soon as we have data we can display it on-air. Sometimes the data changes while we’re on-air, so what I saw when I ran through my sequence is now different.
Next.
David asks, “Do you keep in touch with Bob Tirado?”
No. I have no clue where he is or what he’s doing.
Keith is wondering, “Why News 8 didn’t have a little fishing report in the weather forecast. There are lots of fisherman not just boaters and it would be helpful. Do you think you would be able to relate a fishing report in with your weather?”
Keith this is a shortcoming of broadcasting. It’s tough for us to spend time on things that are unimportant to the vast majority of viewers. Only a tiny sliver of our viewers would care. The rest would be running to the exits.
This is a place where the Internet with its limitless capacity might serve us well. I’ll think about it seriously.
From Bud, who has a webtv email address! “Geoff – I’ve always been under the impression that wind doesn’t affect the reading on a thermometer. On tonights forecast you said that the wind coming on shore from the south will make the temp there about 5 degrees cooler.”
Bud, first congrats on hanging in there with webtv. I seriously hadn’t thought of that service in years.
You are correct. The wind doesn’t affect the reading. It’s where the wind takes the air–over the cool water of Long Island Sound.
During the winter the water is warmer than the land and the opposite takes place.
I spent hours on the air showing the radar, seeing the back end of the system and saying the storm would soon be out of the state. I did that through nine or ten additional inches of snow!
I’m currently answering all your questions. Read more about it here.
Eric asks, “Geoff, what storm in CT was the most memorable for you?”
Eric, you’d think it would be Hurricane Gloria. Maybe it should be. It helped establish a reputation for service in a tough situation. People saw me on-the-air for 24 hours straight.
Instead my most memorable was a blown forecast.
It happened well over twenty years ago. It was a snowstorm that wouldn’t end! I spent hours on the air showing the radar, seeing the back end of the system and saying the storm would soon be out of the state. I did that through nine or ten additional inches of snow!
As I would later understand the error in forecasting was mine. We had less guidance then, but I should have known. I’ve been through many similar storms since and understand the dynamics much better. In fact we had a similar storm this winter which was forecast well (though with some trepidation).
So, why is this one so memorable? It was the first storm where I was wrong and was punished by viewers. It took a few years before the ill will I acquired from that episode wore off. It was awful.
No one wants to get the grief I got over that one snowstorm. I certainly don’t.
What this storm did was help me understand how my work is being used. It was a lesson more forcefully learned in this storm than Gloria where I mostly got kudos.
It’s tough to explain because my attitude had never been cavalier. It just made me much more conscious of the utility of my work and the impact of my words. Twenty plus years later I think of that storm every winter and how to avoid a similar forecast disaster.
From time-to-time I’ll still blow a forecast. This past winter had a glaring example. It’s unavoidable when you’re predicting the future.
If you lived in my shoes you’d know how hard I work to avoid that. I’m not trying to set myself apart. I can’t believe anyone who does what I do feels any different.
There’s no upside to being wrong.
I looked down at the ‘carmometer’ as I drove to work. 48°! Seriously, it isn’t March, it’s May. 48° is the height of underachievment!
I’ve been putting off posting on the blog today. I was hoping something good would happen worthy of writing, but no–weather trumps all! This is a sad day weatherwise.
Driving to work I looked down at the ‘carmometer.’. 48°!
Seriously it isn’t March. It’s May. 48° is the height of underachievment!
Yesterday on TV I asked viewers to let me know if they liked this kind of weather. Just two responses and actually neither of them like the weather in the abstract.
One, a runner, said it was good training weather except for the rain. The other said it was good this didn’t come on the weekend. Neither was exactly praising Mother Nature’s efforts.
My conclusion: No one likes this weather!
As I’ve gotten older I’ve become more fatalistic. There are no replacement days. This is like runway behind the plane. Once it’s gone it’s gone.
The slug on this post is “The Weather Is Sad.” Maybe a better characterization would be to say it’s depressing. It’s certainly depressing me.
That’s not to say I still don’t worry about a hurricane hitting the Northeast as happened tragically in 1938. I do. I worry a lot.
The Colorado State hurricane forecasters have issued their annual tropical weather call.
We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
What does this mean? Virtually nothing… and I’m not even going to take the cheap shot of mentioning this hurricane forecast comes from the very non-tropical and landlocked state of Colorado!
Unless you are an insurance underwriter or maybe someone selling building supplies hurricanes are anecdotal events. Individual places see hurricanes so infrequently that the difference between it being a 1% or 1.4% chance is meaningless. It’s like considering the odds you’ll get a straight flush every time you’re dealt a poker hand. It can happen, but it mostly won’t.
Even when judged by a broader view these studious projections have shown less than stellar accuracy lately. The same goes with forecasts from ‘for-hire’ forecasters. That’s not to say I still don’t worry about a hurricane hitting the Northeast as happened tragically in 1938. I do. I worry a lot.
In spite of the axiom, lightning and hurricanes often strike twice.
I called and told him I was confused because I’d never seen this particular setup before. Neither had he!
Earlier tonight I took a quick look at one of the CT DOT traffic cameras on I-95 and gasped. The camera was in Greenwich-adjacent to the New York State line. While the rest of Connecticut was seeing moderate to heavy rain with temperatures mostly in the 40°s Greenwich had limited visibility with heavy snow. The snow had begun to accumulate!
A few miles up the road in Stamford there was nothing but rain! Even now, hours later, only the communities in Lower Fairfield are seeing the snow stick.
In retrospect the Greenwich blitz doesn’t change my forecast. It was scary to see–sure. The weather had done a rapid about face. It was all part of the forecast, but it happened so quickly and with such fury I was originally taken aback.
Let me qualify this because it’s easy to lose sight of what I’m talking about.
Something’s been falling from the sky since early Tuesday. One storm came and went. This is Part B of Storm 2. However, this unnamed¹ winter storm is so unusual scholarly papers will be written about it!
Thursday while Atlantic City was seeing snow Albany, NY was getting rain. Friday morning New Haven, CT will see snow while Bangor, ME gets the rain! Crazy.
The barometer is so low it’s approaching the range usually seen in hurricanes and tropical storms. We get pressure readings this low every decade or so.
Tonight, as the wind in New London shifted from east to southwest the temperature dropped 9° in one hour! Cold air advection from the southwest! Isn’t that where warm air comes from?
Seriously–that’s nuts.
I called my weather colleague Dr. Mel Goldstein this afternoon. I’d developed my forecast but was unsure about one aspect. He’s a great weather historian so I called and told him I was confused because I’d never seen this particular setup before. Neither had he!
My concern was how much warm air would remain and how much water would stay on roads as the snow fell? How would this affect Friday? My guess is a great deal of the storm will just melt as it hits the pavement–not all of it. What does accumulate will be wet and sloppy and very heavy to move.
After Friday I’ll know better how my speculation comports with the real world. I am working totally in a theoretical world right now.
I am exhausted. This week has been a killer. There’s been no forecast where I could let up because they all were jammed with critical information.
Bring on the weekend.
¹ – As long as I’ve been in Connecticut WFSB has been naming storms. It’s probably a good promotional tool for them, but on those occasions when people refer to a storm by the WFSB given name I gag. These are people who also call the Fiesta Bowl the FedEx Fiesta Bowl.
The question is, how much sticks? Does any? Does all of it?
Bob, my professorial meteo friend popped an email to me a few hours ago. It was short and to the point.
Actually, you never see that. The streamline map on the left (click on the map as the real detail isn’t visible in the thumbnail image), not always a great rain/snow predictor makes today’s line vividly clear. Of course that’s a snapshot in time. The line will shift east later tonight.
That’s where my quandary lies. I’m reasonably sure it will snow. If I scrape my mouse across one of the tools that help me analyze the computer guidance I see around 10″ of snow by tomorrow night at New Haven. There are varying amounts elsewhere, but this is just an example.
The question is, how much sticks? Does any? Does all of it?
These aren’t totally uncharted waters, but it’s certainly an unusual enough scenario that I’ll take pause. There’s too much water on the ground now to be easily absorbed–to perk beneath the surface.
Temperatures will fall below 32°, but will they fall enough to freeze the water and allow snow to fall on top? That’s a really rare setup, water-to-ice with a snow capper, which implies it’s difficult to achieve.
Snow and water don’t mix. Snow always loses. Nothing will accumulate before freezing sets in.
Is it possible to have 10″ of snow fall and have none stick? Maybe. I’m really going to have to think this through and probably chat it up with friends/colleagues to get a better grasp. I’m not sure any of us have any experience quite like this.
So, how’s your day? I don’t go to work for another hour and I’ve already been working for a few!
It’s tough to explain something before it’s happened that’s going to be tough to recount after it’s happened!
I’m not complaining. My ‘office’ is well lit and well equipped. I have cable TV at my desk. I am not lifting boxes in the factory. I get it. Still, this week has totally wiped me out and it’s only Wednesday.
Thankfully the forecast has been reasonably fine. That’s not the problem. It’s just the complexity of the week’s weather.
We haven’t had weather as much as we’ve had samples!
After the fact someone will try and pin a specific reason why this week has been so weird from a weather perspective. Whatever they say will sound studious, but be wrong! Weather is too complex to easily fit into soundbites.
Weather is always eclectic and strange. This is the rule, not the exception. We seldom see average weather.
Here’s my problem right now: It’s tough to explain something before it’s happened that’s going to be tough to recount after it’s happened! Every word becomes critical. It’s been like this all week. My head is spinning.
All through my professional life strangers have told me how boring it would be to forecast in Los Angeles or San Diego. At this moment that seems so appealing.
What was snow overnight has waffled between snow and sleet and rain. Sometimes we’ve gotten two or even all three at once! It’s the chef’s platter of weather.
The word “unpleasant” was front and center in my forecast last night. That’s not a standard condition in the forecaster’s lexicon. It seemed to fit then and it’s verifying right now. It is unpleasant!
What was snow overnight has waffled between snow and sleet and rain. Sometimes we’ve gotten two or even all three at once! It’s the chef’s platter of weather.
Helaine flies home from SoCal tonight. She’s due in just before midnight at Bradley Field¹. I anticipate the flight will be fine. The weather will not.
You have no idea how much I miss her. I’m glad she visited Stef. I’m doubly glad she’s coming back. California can be very alluring. Malibu, Westwood, Melrose and Disney in just a few days.
Hopefully she won’t read this entry until she’s back in Hamden. The attached photos might be too much disincentive. She might not get on that plane!
¹ – Allow me to use its old school name from a more genteel era when we could meet friends to the gate and wear shoes everywhere.
That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run!
One of the weaknesses of making long range forecasts is you get to anguish over storms for a l-o-n-g time. Take tonight’s little doozie. This system has been well modeled by the computers for more than a week–since it was well out in the Pacific.
With each succeeding run it seemed more likely Connecticut would have some impact. The question was how much impact and from what? Would it be snowy or just rainy and raw? This part of the equation seemed beyond the computer’s expertise.
That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run! Though some of the prior results are seeded into the next run’s initialization, there’s little memory these machines maintain from forecast-to-forecast.
Now it looks like the rain/snow line was so hard to get at because it will be moving over us. The storm will be snow then rain. But when the turnover?
There will be plenty of quality number time today. My love of math will be tested with charts and graphs and maps. It’s a geek’s paradise.
I’ve got a horse in the race this time. Helaine’s due back in Connecticut late tomorrow night. I am in charge of transport.
Predicting the weather’s impact on airlines is rough. Most likely she will make it to Connecticut without problem, but face some snowy roads on our way home.
Spring is almost here and I can’t wait. I really can’t!