Buffalo And The World’s Weirdest Weather

The photo at the top of this entry is Buffalo, Wednesday afternoon. The Sun is shining brightly.

Wondering where the snow is?

Elmwood-Avenue

The photo at the top of this entry is Buffalo, Wednesday Tuesday afternoon. It’s my old neighborhood on Elmwood Avenue. The Sun is shining brightly.

Wondering where the snow is?

robhimself793: I’m about a mile from the snow band, I have very little snow, maybe 6″. Just a mile south and people have 3 feet.

You’re seeing one of the more interesting aspects of Lake Effect snow. It is VERY localized. There’s heavy snow just a few miles from where this image was captured.

Lake Effect snow is the product of convection. Heat and moisture are transferred upward into the clouds from the relatively warm lake. You can see that in this time lapse of Lake Erie, one of the coolest pieces of weather video I’ve ever seen.

Heavy Lake Effect snow needs cold wind roughly parallel to the lake to get going. The resulting storm forms slender ‘streamers’ which reach out from the lake. They are often just a few miles wide, with flurries at the edges and white out conditions in the middle!

Near the Great Lakes it’s possible to drive from no snow to 4″/hour conditions in just two or three miles! These bands can stay stationary for hours, or even days!

Buffalo gets a lot of snow each winter, over 90 inches! Because of Lake Effect there are heavier snowbelts south of the city. People in Buffalo scratch their heads why anyone would want to live there, as we scratch our heads over Buffalo.

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Continue reading “Buffalo And The World’s Weirdest Weather”

It Sounds Like New England

You would be hard pressed to show visible perspiration today. Santa Ana sneezes are often accompanied by a little blood on the tissue.

This is very dangerous fire weather.

NWS EDD

I woke this morning to a howling wind. The sound is unmistakable. We’re in SoCal, but my ears said winter in New England!

I’m hearing Santa Ana winds. These are dry, often hot winds coming from the east. The official meteorological term is katabatic.

A katabatic wind, from the Greek word katabatikos meaning “to flow downhill”, is the technical name for a drainage wind, a wind that carries high density air from a higher elevation down a slope under the force of gravity. Such winds are sometimes also called fall winds.

As the wind flows downhill it compresses, warms and dries. It picks up speed flowing through canyons and passes. The sound is the same, but the effect is nearly the opposite of the New England howl I’m attuned to.

FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND ORANGE COUNTIES…THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNRISE WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THE MORNING. THE DRYING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. – NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion

At the moment the temperature is 73° and the dewpoint -8°! The relative humidity is 4%.

The wind sucks the moisture from anything it passes. You would be hard pressed to show visible perspiration today. Santa Ana sneezes are often accompanied by a little blood on the tissue.

This is very dangerous fire weather. We had drizzle a few days ago. Any beneficial effect of that rain is gone. If it’s not green it’s tinder.

Red Flag Warnings are up across Southern California. There will be fires. They will spread.

When a weather feature has its own name, it’s significant! Think Nor’easter.

A few more days of Santa Ana wind will follow.

As Long As The Camera Was Out

This seemed like a good day to demonstrate the camera’s mount, so I brought “Clicky” outside, pointed toward the second floor window and fired away. With this setup do the neighbors think I’m a spy or perv or both?

As soon as I walked outside I knew this would be a good time lapse day. Cumulus clouds were building over Santiago Peak in the nearby Santa Ana Mountains. I suctioned my little NABI Square HD camera to the window in the master bath and pointed it skyward.

This seemed like a good day to demonstrate the camera’s mount, so I brought “Clicky” outside, pointed toward the second floor window and fired away. With this setup do the neighbors think I’m a spy or perv or both?

As I walked back toward the house I noticed a hummingbird at my feeder. It’s a little dark for hummingbird shots, but what the heck. Click, click, click, click.

Then I pointed the camera at a daylily near the front door.

The time lapse is dynamite. And, a few more shots for good measure!

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ready-for-dinner

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Sometimes I Hate Knowing The Future

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often.

phoenix flooding

Hurricane Norbert is a weird duck. It was a powerful hurricane. Then kryptonite. Cool water! Norbert deflated like a balloon.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT.

norbertMonday at 2:00 AM the Hurricane Center washed its hands. Norbert had ceased to exist.

Except, of course, nothing ceases to exist. It just shape shifts a little, takes on another form.

Norbert is now a flooding rainstorm. I was scared this was going to happen.

On Saturday I wrote:

This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days.

COD Meteorology    NEXRAD Single Site Radar DataThe Mexican state of Sonora and extreme southern California and Arizona seem most susceptible.

I underestimated the scope. Phoenix broke it’s record for single day rainfall. There was more flooding farther north.

Meanwhile, as a forecaster (even if I do it just for fun right now) it’s sad to see tragedy unfold in slow motion. I didn’t know exactly where the flooding would be, but what we’ve seen the past few days was expected.

Deserts flood often. Their sparse rain comes in a very few intense storms. Water rises very quickly especially where there are steep mountains–as there are in the Southwest.

By the point my colleagues and I knew what was about to happen it was too late. Beside that our forecasts weren’t specific enough. Weather forecasting isn’t yet at the point where we can zero on a specific flood basin more than a few hours in advance.

TD5, But You’ll Probably Call Her Dolly

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

National Weather Service   Graphical ForecastThe Hurricane Center just gave a cluster of clouds in the Gulf of Mexico the once over. Those clouds are now Tropical Depression 5. Sustained winds are under 30 mph, but some strengthening is expected. TD5 will likely become Tropical Storm Dolly.

The midpoint of the Hurricane Center’s storm track is Tampico, on the Mexican Gulf Coast. Metro Tampico has nearly a million people.

There’s concern, but it’s likely this storm won’t grow strong enough to produce major damage. Though water temperatures in the southern Gulf are bathtub warm, wind shear will limit intensification.

rgb0-laloIn an average year we’re on the “E” storm on September 1. So far 2014 has only produced A, B and C.

In early August the Hurricane Center revised their pre-season “below average” forecast to point even more strongly in that direction. Being a few letters behind remains the expectation.

There’s still danger this hurricane season, but less than usual.

My First Vlog Post: A Trip To The Wedge

I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf.

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I visited The Wedge in Newport Beach this afternoon. It’s a famous surf break. Lowell, a not as famous Eastern Pacific tropical storm, has blessed The Wedge with heavy surf. Not great surf, just big.

This is the story of my trip to photograph it and some of my shots. Please click the button and watch my short video.

Let’s Look At Clouds From Both Sides Now

If it looks like the clouds are boiling, just like a pot of water on the stove, it’s because the dynamics are very similar. Heat is being transferred upward through convection.

NWS EDD

We seldom get the big picture of what’s on the radar by just looking at the sky. Not today. Today is different in SoCal.

The atmosphere is unstable on the the other side of the Santa Ana Mountains, around 30 miles east of me. That’s where the radar (at the top of this entry) shows strong thunderstorms.

What’s striking in the time lapse below are the mid and upper levels of the clouds producing the storms. There are no clouds in the way blocking my view.

If it looks like the clouds are boiling, just like a pot of water on the stove, it’s because the dynamics are very similar. Heat is being transferred upward through convection.

The heavy rain and lightning bolts are out-of-sight behind the mountains. Here, I only see the signs. Everything is moving north and will soon be gone.

The Weather Websites I Use

This is my every once-in-a-while weather website recommendations. These are not the only sites with this data, just the ones I favor.

I’ve been forecasting the weather over thirty years. There have been a boatload of changes and improvements. We used to spend a fortune acquiring data at Channel 8. Now it’s all online and free.

This is my every once-in-a-while weather website recommendations. These are not the only sites with this data, just the ones I favor.

HRRR Model Fields   ExperimentalI use a lot of government data and government sites. They are not the splashiest, but they’ve got just about everything.

For models like the GFS or NAM.

For the short term, high res HRRR. The user facing side of this site is awful, but the HRRR is worth using.

NWS EDDFor greatly customizable maps on the fly, it’s EDD, again from NOAA. EDD has the feel of a freight elevator hung on a building under construction. Nearly everything works, but you’ve got to watch your step. EDD often requires a page reload to clear its foggy head.

A lot of what EDD does Wundermap does too, plus it has the European model! Wundermap is from Wunderground, weather geeks online since the Internet was young. They’re now owned by the Weather Channel’s parent company.

Severe Weather, SPC. The mesoscale analysis section of the site is crazy. You can delicately slice and dice the atmosphere looking for the signs of severe weather.

An admission. I don’t understand the significance of everything they make available.

For tropical weather I hit Dr. Bob Hart’s site at Florida State for individual models and Wisconsin for spaghetti plots.

The most valuable item from the Hurricane Center is the tech discussion. The lead forecaster describes the factors weighed making the forecast. It’s a different url for each storm, but you can find the discussion from their home.

By the way, for anything… and I mean anything that comes from the weather service in text form, I run to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet site.

I wish stuff would come faster. I wish maps would get larger. So many are still sized for a world where 800 pixels across was wide.

Here Comes Bertha

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It takes a while for the Atlantic hurricane season to get going. The real action is still far ahead.

Meanwhile, out in the Tropical Atlantic a cluster of thunderstorms is being eyed by the National Hurricane Center. It is Atlantic Invest 93. It will become Bertha.

This “Invest” stuff is a recent addition to the hurricane info deluge. It’s a heads up more than anything.

The storm is probably headed to the northern islands of the Caribbean–possibly the Virgin Islands, then northwest into the open ocean. There’s a lot of wiggle room between now and the weekend.

Intensity forecasts say tropical storm, possibly low end hurricane. Intensity forecasts are notoriously awful.

Up the East Coast? There’s that potential, though the most common track would is well offshore.

It will be watched closely.

Graphics from the math geeks at UW Madison.

Let’s Use Arthur As An Example

4.track.current

There’s a lot packed into the map at the top of this entry (click for a larger view). Don’t be overwhelmed. It’s pretty easy and I’ll break it down.

What you’re looking at is a history and prediction of Tropical Storm Arthur. This is based on the GFS, not usually a great hurricane model, but this isn’t a particularly tough forecast.

Hopefully you see the Eastern US and Canada. The colored areas represent ocean water temperature. It’s done in degree Celsius.

Arthur is in an orange area corresponding to 28&#176-29&#176 Celsius. That’s basically the low 80s&#176 Fahrenheit. Up to North Carolina there is relatively warm water. North of that water cools rapidly. Off Cape Cod it’s 17&#176-20&#176 Celsius or mid-60s&#176 Fahrenheit.

That colder water will quickly shut down the tropical characteristics of any early season storm. Arthur, interacting with a front, will be more a rain than wind maker for most of the Eastern Seaboard. The brunt will be felt in the Northeast Friday, what looks like a pretty crappy day.

The boxed numbers with balls in between forming a line is the storm’s track. The number in the box is the date. You’ll notice they’re bunched up around Florida, but spread out beyond the 4th of July. That shows the storm’s forward motion increasing rapidly.

The faster the forward motion, the easier the track is to predict! That’s one reason I’ve been so blase about this storm’s chances of impacting the Northeast. It’s fast moving and very likely to stay offshore.

Thanks to Dr. Robert Hart of Florida State University for providing the map (I actually haven’t asked him yet, but he won’t say no.)

Now It’s Tropical Storm Arthur

After grazing the North Carolina coast Arthur will be picked up by a midlatitude front and ushered to sea. Friday’s New England rain will be enhanced (intensified) by Arthur’s moisture. That’s especially true in Eastern Connecticut and more so in Rhode Island and the Cape.

Atlantic TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR - Google Maps

Invest 91 became Tropical Depression 1, which is now Tropical Storm Arthur. I can’t not look!

Early season storms are usually wimps. Not always. Remember Andrew!

Intensity guidance, among the poorest prediction guesses we make, says Arthur will briefly become a hurricane on Friday. I expect no hurricane force winds onshore.

The spaghetti strands continue to be tightly clustered. A good sign, especially since the impact to Connecticut (where many of my friends still live) should be minimal, but still significant.

After grazing the North Carolina coast Arthur will be picked up by a midlatitude front and ushered to sea. Friday’s New England rain will be enhanced (intensified) by Arthur’s moisture. That’s especially true in Eastern Connecticut and more so in Rhode Island and the Cape.

By Saturday Arthur’s east of Cape Cod and steaming away. The weekend is saved in New England and elsewhere!

Remember: Though I do follow tropical systems and post when I can, you should depend on a meteorologist who works fulltime watching your weather. I am flattered people still value my opinion, but I shouldn’t be your ‘final answer.’ – Geoff

The First Tropical Depression Of The Season

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common. It’s usually well predicted.

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TD 1 has formed off the coast of Florida. I posted something about it on Facebook a few days ago. At that time the computers were stumped. Each model took the storm a different way.

Things have changed!

The spaghetti in this spaghetti plot is tightly clustered. Even the projected waypoint times closely align. This is what a spaghetti plot is best used for. The closer the alignment the more likely the forecast is good.

This path, taking a tropical system to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the east coast offshore, is fairly common and normally well predicted.

Tropical Depression 1 should become Tropical Storm Arthur. Graduation to hurricane is less likely.

Gray And Gloomy

In SoCal people look forward to these gray days as a break from our endless sunshine. An OC native I spoke to yesterday was curious if I missed rain?

Right.

I wanted to say, “You’re nuts.” I held my tongue.

towercam

When I got up this morning (OK–it was afternoon. So shoot me.) the sky was gray. Not as bad as the photo (above) from the Mt. Wilson camera… but still gray. That’s not unexpected this time of year. May Gray is a well worn California phrase.

As it turns out, what looks like typical SoCal marine layer cloudiness is anything but! There are moderate to heavy radar returns from Central and Southern California.

The NWS office in San Diego describes it this way:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

cali-radarThere are reports of street flooding in San Diego. Storm drainage isn’t very good in most older neighborhoods. It doesn’t take a lot to flood.

Even though these cells are moving in my direction it’s likely few (if any) will get here. The mountains east of us enhance the rainfall on the desert side, then stabilize the airmass as it moves back to lower elevations.

In SoCal people look forward to these gray days as a break from our endless sunshine. An OC native I spoke to yesterday was curious if I missed rain?

Right.

I wanted to say, “You’re nuts.” I held my tongue.

Actually, I feel gypped on days like today. Stupid attitude, but it is what it is. My mind has independently decided it’s supposed to be sunny and mild every day. I have no control over the letdown I truly feel.

By tomorrow we should be back to normal.

May Gray, June Gloom

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

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Even Californians complain about the weather. We should be ashamed of ourselves!

We have one of those potential kvetch times on-the-way. It’s the seasonal California May gray and June gloom. We’ll be waking to cloudy skies for most of the next week. They disappear by noon. This type of weather happens sporadically through summer.

In the case of coastal California, the offshore marine layer is typically propelled inland by a pressure gradient which develops as a result of intense heating inland, blanketing coastal communities in cooler air which, if saturated, also contains fog. The fog lingers until the heat of the sun becomes strong enough to evaporate it, often lasting into the afternoon during the “May gray” or “June gloom” period – Wikipedia

We’re over 10 miles inland. It’s not as bad as for coastal dwellers. Of course, they live on the California Coast. They’d better not complain. Ever. About anything.

This weather scenario wasn’t something we were looking for in Connecticut. Here, it shows up nicely on the forecast models. At the top is a BUFKIT readout from tonight’s 00Z GFS for KSNA, John Wayne Airport in nearby Santa Ana (Clicking the image will give you a much larger, much more readable look).

BUFKIT is an amazing program for visualizing weather data. It was developed at NOAA and is free, as is the data it uses.

With maps you see a large area for one specific time. With BUFKIT you see one specific place over a period of time. Go ahead–reread that.

There’s a lot going on, but what I’m looking at is at the bottom of the image. The lines are isohumes–lines of equal humidity. The cloud producing marine layer isn’t thick. On most days it only goes up 2,000 feet. It produces low, dense overcast. Sometimes there’s drizzle.

The marine layer forms in the evening and fades through the morning.

Every area has its own weather quirks. They all follow the laws of physics, often through interaction too complex for humans to fully understand. Take this afternoons clouds.

I Sure Talk About The Weather A Lot

I talk about the weather so much because of how shockingly different it is. It’s much better than I hoped for–and I knew the numbers. Granted, this was an exceptional winter.

Most easterners think of a warm climate and think Florida. It has a humidity based economy! The Los Angeles/OC/San Diego corridor is dry. Our dew point hits 60 a few times a year and then briefly.

I posted this on Facebook Thursday afternoon:

On the patio. We went to 101 today, but with 4% humidity. Down to 81, but very comfy w/little breeze and low humidity. A/C now off.

The comments started flooding back. There’d be more, but some people are bothered by all the notifications you get when you comment on my wall. I hate that too&#185.

One Facebook friend said:

Something fun and funny about your casual weather posts.

I talk about the weather so much because of how shockingly different it is. It’s much better than I hoped for–and I knew the numbers. Granted, this was an exceptional winter.

Most easterners think of a warm climate and think Florida. It has a humidity based economy! The Los Angeles/OC/San Diego corridor is dry. Our dew point hits 60 a few times a year and then briefly.

A typical winter has no cold, no snow and little gloom. Nearly all our rain falls in winter. Rainy days in SoCal cause the same tumult as Connecticut snow days.

Low humidity and relentless sunshine are our two most obvious pluses. Top-10 Chamber of Commerce days back in New England are every days here! Sky blue. Birds chirping.

My concept of temperature has to be re-calibrated. 100&#176 feels more like 85&#176.

We moved for the weather (and there’s that little thing of proximity to the child). We got what we wanted and then some.

&#185 – If you comment on my blog you won’t get notifications unless you ask for them.