Tag: winter weather

One More Christmas Eve Forecast Revision

There’s just enough time for one more look at the Christmas Eve forecast. It’s a tough one because I expect different outcomes in different places!

Most everyone will see some snow, though if you’re on the shoreline east of New Haven don’t blink or you’ll miss it! In most spots the snow will be mixed with rain or sleet from time-to-time. No one is getting a lot!

The precipitation should begin sliding into the state from the south around 8’ish. Mist or sprinkles are most likely at the start.

By 10 or 11 there should be a turnover to snow moving from the southwest to northeast. The farther south or east you are the less turnover to snow you’ll see. Later, as some warm air mixes in from the south even inland areas that had seen a little accumulating snow, will go to light rain or mixed precipitation.

A few days ago I wrote about a snowy looking coverage on grassy areas that’s slushy to the touch. That’s the most likely outcome off the shore. I’m not sure the shoreline will end up with any white accumulation at all.

In any event this is a quickly moving, lightly producing, storm. Hopefully it’s pretty in photos!

Over the past few decades I’ve been with you on Christmas Eve tracking Santa. I’ll miss wearing my Santa hat and watching his sleigh fly around the world tonight. I might be the only person you know who looked forward to working Christmas Eve.

Being Jewish I always felt excluded on Christmas. No more. I’ve grown to understand and embrace the spirit of this season. Christmas was your gift to me. Thank you.

Merry Christmas to all from this guy in pajamas.

As The Models Turn

What was the phrase yesterday? Carved in chocolate pudding? That’s how these winter storms are always modeled. I recognize the Christmas Eve system from yesterday, but it’s not quite the same.

The 00z NAM is in. The 00z GFS is dribbling out, one three hour step at a time.

The NAM looks perfect if you’re dreaming of a… Just enough snow for Christmas morning without being a major pain!

Alas, I never depend on the NAM.

The 00z GFS is a little warmer. The 850mb 0&#176c line is right on the Connecticut shore. The NAM places it south of Long Island.

85mb 0&#176c (around 5,000 feet) is a good benchmark for the rain/snow line. That’s why it’s looked at

The Euro won’t be in for a while, but looking back at the 12z run it’s cold enough for snow, but there’s not enough to register on the maps I’m using which have an inch per three hour threshold.

So, where does this leave us? No forecast is ever 100%, but I’ll stick with yesterday’s call with some minor tweaks.

The precipitation arrives late Christmas Eve. It should be all snow inland with a few mixed periods on the shoreline.

Don’t expect much, maybe a few inches!

Don’t expect a long duration. The snow ends Christmas morning.

Oh… and that storm later in the week now looks like rain.

That’s the forecast from a guy in pajamas.

Dreaming Of A White Christmas?

It’s been a while since I talked weather. I’d rather be doing this in front of a green wall, but pajamas on the sofa is what we’ve got. I’ll make do.

Snow on Christmas is usually a no show for Connecticut. This year looks different!

As always a few hedges. It’s Saturday. Christmas is Tuesday.

Snowfall, especially snowfall amounts, is among our most vexing forecasts. In other words, today this forecast is still carved in chocolate pudding.

The GFS forms a low pressure system over Western Kentucky Monday morning. It’s not a deep low, but it’s on the move. By Monday evening it’s approaching the coast just south of Long Island, getting ready to head out to sea.

In order to get a big snowstorm you usually need high pressure in Canada acting as a block. That’s not in evidence here. The storm will move through pretty quickly.

On the western shoreline it’s snow to start on Christmas eve, but then mixed precipitation and even some rain before dawn. Another short period of snow looks possible before the storm leaves pre-sunrise Christmas morning. Grassy surfaces should look snowy (and feel slushy). It will have to do.

On the shoreline east of New Haven there will be more rain, less snow. Sorry.

Once you move inland the chance for a ‘mostly snow’ event increases greatly. We won’t see a lot of snow from this fast mover, but beggars can’t be choosers.

The GFS implies a period of freezing rain mixed in as far north as Hartford and Willimantic, but not enough to spoil the party. North and west all snow is probable. It’s likely a 2-4″ of snow will accumulate throughout Inland Connecticut

As winter storms go this isn’t a big one. It’s in Monday evening, gone Tuesday morning.

As poetic timing goes, it’s huge!

There is another more substantial storm on tap for Wednesday-Thursday. Standby.

May I Have A Little Crow With That Forecast, Please?

Earlier today I razzed Karl Rove and Dick Morris for blowing the forecast in the presidential election. There’s probably a little razzing room to add me too.

Though my forecast was right for most of the state, it was very wrong for some people who mean a lot to me. The area from Middletown to New Haven on either side of I-91 then across toward Danbury is Connecticut’s snow capitol at this hour. My wife just told me we were approaching a foot of snow in Hamden

I am told the time to travel from Hartford to Waterbury on I-84 now approaches infinity!

These Nor’easters are tricky. Duh! No one should be surprised this one came, brought strong winds and made the commute home hell. That was all in the forecast.

What I missed was the extent and persistence of the snow. Where is the rain I thought would be overspreading us by now?

If it will make you feel better we don’t even have two inches here at the Courant/FoxCT’s building in Hartford. This is one place the forecast verified.

Not feeling better? I tried.

Please accept my apology for steering you wrong.

I’m still looking for the smoking gun which will tell me what I should have looked at, but didn’t. It might not exist. This storm might be one of those more complex than our scientific ability to dissect.

As penance I will be forced to drive home through this crap at 11:35.

Everyone’s Talking Wednesday’s Storm

There has been much more interest in Wednesday’s potential storm than I can ever remember for a system this far away. I’m sure it’s the Sandy effect. Maybe a little fear of snow too thrown in for good measure!

I have good news and bad news. The good news is, it’s likely the upcoming storm will be rain and not snow. The bad news is, it’s likely to be a raw rain adding insult on top of injury for anyone still powerless.

The low itself is expected to form as cool air hits the Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday. From there it cuts across the Florida peninsula, then north hugging the Atlantic Coast as it climbs the eastern side of a deep upper air trough. The first effects in Connecticut get here Wednesday.

If the low tracks far enough east we’re on the cold side and get snow. Far enough west and we see rain. Right now (and this stuff can always change) we get rain, except for Northern Litchfield County where it is mainly snow.

Unfortunately it will be chilly, wind driven rain!

As bad as the next few cold days will be for those without power, this storm will make it worse!

Homes and businesses are coming on line at a faster pace than 2011. One can only hope that pace continues.

For those in New Jersey, Long Island, Manhattan and Staten Island, where the recovery will be measured in months not days, this will be brutal.

My Ox Is Being Gored

In reality our forecast was pretty good. The problem was this ‘named’ storm’s worst aspects were being reported on the national media. Folks who heard this locally couldn’t or didn’t differentiate.

And, of course, that’s what’s going to happen. TWC will talk about a vicious storm and scare people who needn’t be scared.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday they’d begin naming winter storms. The reasons were enumerated by TWC’s Tom Niziol, who was very helpful to me when I was starting out in Buffalo. He was an NWS forecaster, later Meteorologist-in-Charge. Few people know more about winter weather.

During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms. Our goal is to better communicate the threat and the timing of the significant impacts that accompany these events. The fact is, a storm with a name is easier to follow, which will mean fewer surprises and more preparation.

I call BS.

This is wholly a marketing move on the part of The Weather Channel, just as it is for WFSB. Channel 3 was already naming Connecticut’s storms when I got here 1984.

From a PR standpoint it’s probably good for The Weather Channel as it’s been for WFSB. For everyone else it will add confusion when we should be adding clarity.

Winter storms aren’t compact systems like hurricanes. Single storms can cover a few thousand miles over a period of days. More importantly these storms bring different weather to different places simultaneously.

Remember the “Storm of the Century” back in 1993? Some East Coast locations got creamed. Here in Connecticut its effect was significant, but significantly less. I was inundated by comments from viewers who felt it was hyped!

In reality our forecast was pretty good. The problem was this ‘named’ storm’s worst aspects were the only thing being reported by the national media! Folks who heard this locally couldn’t, or didn’t, differentiate.

And, of course, that’s what’s going to happen. TWC will talk about a vicious storm and scare people who needn’t be scared.

AccuWeather’s corporate account tweeted:

TWC Winter Storm Naming “Will Mislead Public”

I can’t disagree.

Nate Johnson, meteorologist from WRAL Raleigh, summed it up nicely:

In making this change unilaterally, The Weather Channel has essentially tossed effective risk communication out the window and their partners in the National Weather Service and other corners of the “weather community” under the bus. One of the tenets of good risk and emergency communication is that communicators speak with “one voice”. That doesn’t mean everyone says the same thing; rather, it means those involved should speak in harmony with others.

Maybe I’m overstating the problem? Maybe this is just sour grapes on my part? It’s tough to remove my emotions from the equation. In the words of my friend Ryan Hanrahan from Channel 30,

I think it’s silly and fun. I don’t think it does any harm.

I just want to know what happens when Channel 3 and The Weather Channel come up with different names for the same storm?

When Forecasters Talk

I went to the discussions today when my cell lit up with text messages announcing Freezing Rain Advisories for the region overnight. I wasn’t expecting rain until Monday daytime, but freezing rain is scary enough to consider other voices.

Part of the reason I enjoy forecasting weather so much is because it isn’t done in a vacuum. When meteorologists get together weather is what we talk about. There’s also a huge volume of discussions from general and specialized forecasters available online and around-the-clock.

Want to read up on the chances for flooding or snow or severe weather? There are regularly scheduled narratives to cover those subjects and a bunch more. The Weather Service is part of the government and the government is masterful at producing paper!

I went to the discussions today when my cell lit up with text messages announcing Freezing Rain Advisories for the region overnight. I wasn’t expecting rain until Monday daytime, but freezing rain is scary enough to consider other voices.

Here’s what Peter Wichrowski, lead forecaster at the Weather Service office on Long Island (with warning responsibility for the Connecticut shoreline counties) wrote in the latest Area Forecast Discussion.

MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WELL EARLY TODAY…AND RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER THE OCEAN JUST TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURRING TONIGHT.

NAM/GFS DO OUTPUT POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT…ALONG WITH MESOSCALE MODELS/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS…PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH 5 KFT TONIGHT. DO NOT FEEL THAT DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SNOW/SLEET. I COULD BE WRONG…BUT MAIN PTYPE THAT CONCERNS ME IS DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

BASED ON SFC TEMP FORECASTS…MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ALL ZONES…WITH ENDING TIMES LAYERED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF DRIZZLE IS NOT WIDESPREAD…LATER SHIFTS MAY DROP THE ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

The GFS calls for .01″ liquid at Hartford and .02″ at New Haven. This is one of those situations where less is more! A tiny amount of drizzle will cause problems more quickly than a downpour because it will more easily freeze on contact.

Though I’m still in pajamas I called our nightside producer to see if I could get pushed to our newscast’s lead.

I probably would have come to this conclusion later this evening. By taking advantage of the collegial nature of weather I was tipped off early.

Forecasting: What We Do At Work

Each of us were arguing our points for the solution we prefer for Friday/Saturday. I mention this now because while we were all together I said viewers would probably appreciate the fact we have these.

Rachel Frank, Bob Cox and I were in Bob’s little radio booth a few minutes ago discussing the forecast. Each of us were arguing our points for the solution we prefer for Friday/Saturday. I mention this now because while we were all together I said viewers would probably appreciate the fact we have these.

I’m not sure you’d actually enjoy watching them because lots of what we talk about is arcane or clouded in jargon and difficult for outsiders to understand.

Bottom line there’s a little snow tonight and a little more Friday/Saturday. The consensus is tonight’s snow is light–a few inches tops. Finding a consensus for the next storm is a little more difficult. Two or three inches? Let’s get through tonight first.

Where’s Winter?

Doing some research. See the things you thought you’d never need beyond college? Tomorrow’s science report is about our lack of winter. Since late October we’ve had hardly any snow.

We are not alone! Much of the Mountain West has been snow free for the winter season. Meanwhile portions of Siberia and Alaska have gotten (and are getting) pounded!

I tend to concentrate on the Northeast. This is not the kind of thing I usually look at. I know where to find people who do.

This afternoon meteorologists Rachel Frank, Bob Cox (WTIC radio) and I had a phone conversation with a meteorologist from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. HPC makes maps like these and predicts significant weather events on a national “big picture” basis.

Before I tell you what he told us you should understand the atmosphere is infinitely complex. Everything that happens affects everything else! You know, if a butterfly flaps his wings in Brazil it changes things in an unpredictable way that makes long range forecasting impossible.

The atmosphere is a cacophony of this then this then this then this then…. It’s never static.

Observations in the Pacific show we are in a La Nina period.

La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. We’re seeing colder than normal water extending from the South American coast into the mid-Pacific. Typically La Nina means less snow in the Northeast.

La Nina isn’t very unusual. There’s more.

The North American Oscillation Index has been mainly positive. The index constantly fluctuates in intensity and is subject to flipping every few weeks. This year it’s locked into it’s pattern.

Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-averagel temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, anomalous height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia.

And that’s what’s happened! It’s been a brutal winter in Siberia and Alaska–much more harsh than normal.

Like La Nina a positive NAO isn’t earth shattering news, but the two coming together simultaneously has a cumulative effect.

I’m not wishing last winter on us, but patterns change and we’ll surely have some winter before the flowers bloom.