Tag: Winter

Wednesday’s Storm On My Mind

Hurricane Sandy did what I predicted, but I still have trouble coming to grips with what Sandy brought!

I saw more photos today from Staten Island. Unreal!

How do you put your life back together after something like that?

And now there’s another storm headed our way. I’ll be following it closely on FoxCT and also writing about it in more detail here on my blog. This won’t be as strong as Sandy.

At this point does it have to be?

I’m trying to make the ECMWF (European) the model of choice, but it’s difficult. There aren’t as many parameters available to me as there are for the US models. The ECMWF isn’t BUFKIT friendly either. What I’m forced to do is use a blend of ECMWF and GFS.

This incoming storm is not likely to affect the election–certainly not here.

We’ll start getting breezy in Connecticut Wednesday afternoon with rain arriving by evening. There are hints this storm might produce some snow in the Northwest Hills and some towns right at the Massachusetts border, but it’s likely any snow will be mixed with rain. No accumulation, or minimal accumulation.

The rain is likely to continue into Thursday, tapering to showers in the afternoon.

More than just rainy, this is a storm! We’ll see 20-30 mph winds with higher gusts. The Jersey Shore and parts of Long Island will probably see 25-40 mph sustained plus higher gusts.

This weather will stop the cleanup and might even push some back! There are still around 40,000 UI and CL&P customers without power in Connecticut, a fraction of where we started. In New York and New Jersey the numbers are much worse and the progression much slower. Much.

Unlike Hurricane Sandy there’s nothing really unusual about this storm. Weather patterns have begun their shift toward winter. This is a type of storm New England and the Northeast get often.

It just seems unfair it’s coming now!

You Can’t Stop It

Rachel and I were discussing the forecast tonight. Two fronts by Saturday. Frost, maybe a hard freeze, in spots Saturday and Sunday mornings.

It’s coming. Winter. You just can’t stop it.

People are surprised I’m not excited by snow.

“You must love winter storms,” they’ll say.

No!

It’s a pain. It’s a pain to drive in. It’s a pain to dress for. It’s a pain to deal with.

It’s more than a pain, it’s a royal pain, to forecast! And this is the time of year viewers (like you) are most interested in specifics. I wish I could take the Romney approach here and go light on the details.

Science has its limits. Winter storms are complex. Sometimes the correct solution is beyond our capabilities. If working harder would make my winter forecasts more accurate I’d stay up all night!

At Hartford, October’s daily high starts at 69&#176 on the first and ends up 58&#176 on the 31st. We lose another 11 degrees in November. Daily highs don’t bottom out until we’re 2/3 done with January.

Leaves have begun to fall more rapidly.

We’re getting new winter coats at work.

You just can’t stop it.

Unfair

It’s tough to take a step out the door without being shocked. In the abstract we probably shouldn’t be!

“This weather,” Helaine began, “wouldn’t be so bad if we hadn’t had last week… if we hadn’t been spoiled.”

Yes. It’s tough to take a step out the door without being shocked. In the abstract we probably shouldn’t be!

Today’s average high at Hartford (BDL) is 52&#176. We hit 52&#176 at 8:00 AM before sliding back into the mid and upper 40s. We’re reasonably close to what we should expect on a typical March 26. Small comfort.

I am going to wear a winter coat to work this afternoon. I don’t want to. Little choice.

“It’s unfair,” Helaine added.

Yes, it is.

How We Decide Rain/Sleet/Snow

Some shoreline locations saw all rain. High elevation towns inland got all snow. Most of us had both plus a little sleet!

Forecasting what kind of slop falls from the sky is one of winter’s most difficult predictions. I wrote a little story about it for Thursday’s Hartford Courant and thought you might enjoy reading along.

We didn’t have a lot of precipitation today, but we sure had a lot of different types! Some shoreline locations saw all rain. High elevation towns inland got all snow. Most of us had both plus a little sleet!

Predicting the precipitation type has everything to do with temperature, though not necessarily the temperature at ground level. Ice crystal formation and snow growth takes place mainly between 10,000 and 20,000 feet up. If the temperature remains below freezing from cloud to ground snow falls intact.

Wednesday had some milder pockets tucked in the atmosphere. Snow melted then refroze producing sleet. Near the shore there wasn’t enough cold air to refreeze the melted snow and so it was rain that hit the ground.

We missed Connecticut’s most dangerous winter precipitation which occurs when mild pockets melt falling snow, but very cold temperatures at the surface refreeze it on contact. Freezing rain can and has turned Interstates to skating rinks!

The New Numbers Are In For Wednesday

Right now my main tool is BUFKIT. I’ve got it opened with the latest GFS and NAM data.

I was telling Rachel tonight we all use the same tools to forecast, but we use them so differently. Rachel and I get the same data in different forms from different websites.

Right now my main tool is BUFKIT. I’ve got it opened with the latest GFS and NAM data.

The GFS is still the warmer of the two. Snow inland will be minimal under its scenario.

The NAM is warmer than it was, but colder than the GFS. We’d get a few inches from early afternoon through mid evening with less on the shore.

I’m staying with the forecast Rachel and I worked up this afternoon. A little slushy accumulation on the coast with 2-5″ inland before going to a wintry mix then rain. In other words a brief pain, but no lasting injury.

I’m leaving for work early Wednesday. I expect a longer than usual commute.

No Business Like Snow Business

Here’s the problem. The atmosphere is infinitely complex. Anything anywhere affects everything else. Our models can only hope to approximate.

Over the years meteorologists have decided the best way to forecast changes in the atmosphere is to treat it as the physics problem it is. That means computer models full of math. Weather modelling is among the most complex tasks run through supercomputers.

Here’s the problem. The atmosphere is infinitely complex. Any change (or observational error) anywhere affects everything else. Our models can only hope to approximate the actual truth.

They get pretty close, but on a night like tonight where the difference of a few degrees (temperature or latitude, take your pick) can make a difference the computers fall short!

Right now the 18Z NAM is calling for half a foot of snow at Hartford before an icy mix glazes everything and puts a cap on accumulations. The 18Z GFS says under a half inch of snow followed by sleet then rain.

The forecast is easier near the shore where the turnover to rain will happen sooner (if there’s any snow at all).

It’s not that these models are so different. It’s just a tiny difference decides snow versus rain. Think on/off switch versus volume knob.

Both solutions are tough to buy into! My gut feeling is to take a compromise. That’s what I’ll be doing on the news tonight.

More than likely the final call will be 2-5″ inland before the changeover with mostly slush then rain on the shore.

Is this guaranteed? Hello?

What does look reasonably certain is the onset of precipitation after noon. That means Wednesday morning is good, but Wednesday night isn’t.

I’ll be up most of the night checking, rechecking then rechecking again. I never sleep easy before it snows.

Think Of It As A Photo Op

We haven’t had a lot of snow this year (since October) so I decided to throw my camera in the car for the trip to work.

Yesterday’s forecast for this morning was mostly on target.

Snow should start in the middle of the night. It will be snowing in most of inland Connecticut by morning drive. The Northwest Hills could have two to as much as five inches by that time. Most of the rest of inland Connecticut will be in the slushy to an inch or two range.

It doesn’t take much. All the slippery is in the first ¼ inch. With that in mind there will be a lot of slippery.

On the shoreline? Not for you this time!

Ouch! That was the big blow. There was snow across much of the shoreline.

Your gigantic snowflakes told the story. The temperature along the Sound was just on the edge. It just wasn’t the edge I expected.

We haven’t had a lot of snow this year (since October) so I decided to throw my camera in the car for the trip to work. It wasn’t a picture postcard day.

The snow made things interesting, but mist and low clouds persisted even when the snow stopped. When there’s lots of moisture in the air blacks disappear from photos! I did my best to help reinstate them.

Sunday Looks Less Threatening

There’s still the chance for snow Sunday, but right now it’s a smaller chance of less snow. I’m Geoff Fox and I approve of Mother
Nature’s message.

You can tell when there’s the potential for a critical weather event. After today’s 12Z GFS came out I sent a text message to Rachel Frank. She replied,

“OMG I was writing you the same text at the same time! That’s sooooo weird.”

Not weird. Expected. There’s something internal that compels our vigilance.

Anyway, we were texting because the GFS has backed off its earlier snowstorm prediction. The last two runs have moved the low pressure’s center farther south meaning farther away.

There’s still the chance for snow Sunday, but right now it’s a smaller chance of less snow. I’m Geoff Fox and I approve of Mother Nature’s message.

Too Early To Be Sure About Sunday

The GFS starts Hartford with sleet pre-dawn turning to snow in the afternoon. It calls for 1.5″ of snow, but that’s after nearly a half inch liquid equivalent of sleet.

It’s very early Thursday. There’s a chance for snow Sunday. I so wish I knew what was going to happen. The computer models have waffled on the main low’s position. Right now all I can do is weigh the options.

Tonight was the perfect opportunity to download the latest version of BUFKT, the Swiss Army Knife of weather. A new algorithm for liquid-to-snow ratio calculation has been added. BUFKIT was developed at the Weather Service. It’s distributed free. I use it every single day.

It bears repeating this far out you have little choice but monitor the models. No human could possibly forecast 4, 5, 6, 7 days out on his own. The math is incredibly complex because the atmosphere is infinitely complex.

The GFS came in with an interesting solution. It’s the model I favor. I’ll also look at the ECMWF which has become more easily found online.

The GFS starts Hartford with sleet pre-dawn turning to snow in the afternoon. It calls for 1.5″ of snow, but that’s after nearly a half inch liquid equivalent of sleet. I’m not sure how much of that snow will stick.

If it does stick we’ll have bigger problems with icy everything Sunday night!

On the shoreline the scenario looks oddly similar with sleet to snow, except more of each. 3″ is possible in New Haven though some/most of it could easily be lost to wet streets.

This storm is still far away. Things will change.

Even having imperfect insight is valuable.

A Little Snow In Your Future

That! Don’t ask that! Don’t ask a question already seeded with the wrong answer. And, no, it’s not going to be all that bad this weekend.

What have I missed? Where have I gone wrong? The time between preparing a forecast and seeing the actual weather is stressful. I’ve been snippy on days like this. Please don’t ask loaded questions!

“So it’s going to be really bad this weekend?”

That! Don’t ask that! Don’t ask a question already seeded with the wrong answer.

And, no, it’s not going to be all that bad this weekend.

I worked with Dan Amarante and Bob Cox this afternoon. I chatted twice with Rachel Frank who like all of us worries about her forecast… even on her days off. It’s good to have other people around to brainstorm the details.

We’re all of a like mind. This storm isn’t a big deal. Most areas will see 1-3″ with a little more in Southeastern Connecticut and along the I-395 corridor.

I chatted with a friend from another station as I drove to work today. We were talking about the explosion of data available to meteorologists. It’s a fire hose! There’s more than humans can absorb. We have to pick and choose what we consider and then hope we don’t overlook anything important.

In TV snow trumps everything–even this little snow. There might be more impact from the bitter, windy cold night that will follow, but it has to take a back seat.

When snow is in the forecast that’s all you want to hear about. I get it.

You will be served.

Snow For Saturday

It’s not that the state will be on lockdown. Roads will be pasable though slippery. I think most of us have just learned we can wait these storms out! It’s just not worth the hassle.

I’ve met my match. Rachel Frank is just as tightly wound as I am over the snow coming Saturday. Maybe she’s more tightly wound! We have run the numbers and spun the maps a bunch of times this afternoon and evening. The models are nothing if not inconsistent over the amount of precipitation we’ll get.

What does look likely is an all day snow for Saturday. You’ll wake up with the ground already covered. It won’t be finished until after the Sun goes down… which of course you won’t see because of the snow!

If this forecast holds true most people will have second thoughts about venturing out Saturday. It’s not that the state will be on lockdown. Roads will be pasable though slippery. I think most of us have just learned we can wait these storms out! It’s just not worth the hassle.

Earlier computer runs had the largest snowfall potential in Eastern Connecticut. As the 00Z NAM arrives that looks less certain.

The best way to describe it is not a back breaker, but more than enough to notice.

Rachel is off tomorrow. I’ve got a dollar that says we still speak.

Tomorrow’s Groundhog Day

With Groundhog Day tomorrow I thought I’d write about Punxsutawney Phil.

I write a small column (a columnette?) every day in the Hartford Courant. It appears on Page 2 with the weather maps. It’s just 75 words, which is the challenge. It’s tough to have a beginning, middle and end in that tiny a space.

With Groundhog Day tomorrow I thought I’d write about Punxsutawney Phil.

It’s Groundhog Day. Maybe you’re happy, but I don’t appreciate seeing a rodent do my job! I expect mostly cloudy skies in Punxsutawney as Phil is hoisted by the scruff of his neck to look for his shadow (and possibly Bill Murray). That doesn’t seem to make a difference. Phil’s seen his shadow 99 of the last 115 years! A federal agency analyzed Phil’s forecast. “No predictive skill,” they say. Or, more succinctly, he’s a rodent!

Don’t Diss Gloves!

The gloves had been on the seat for weeks, but didn’t try to escape until I was mean to ‘glove-manity.’

I caught the elevator down from the studio last night with Brent Hardin. He’s the male anchor on our 4, 10 and 11 PM newscasts. The temperature was well into the 40&#176s. Brent was wearing gloves.

He said if he didn’t wear them he’d lose them. I razzed him a little.

We parted company in the parking lot and headed to our cars. There was a glove on the ground just behind the rear bumper of my Forester. Someone must have dropped it there.

Brent was right. If you don’t wear them you lose them.

It wasn’t until I got home, opened the door and looked at the seat next to me that I realized that was my glove on the ground in Hartford! The gloves had been on the seat for weeks, but didn’t try to escape until I was mean to ‘glove-manity.’

Lesson learned.

I pulled into the parking lot today and looked to see if the glove was still there. Of course. It was right where I’d left it last night.

The way I figure it the glove let me go with a warning.

I’m Thinking Spring

It won’t last. Winter is persistent. There are surely storms to come.

I took Doppler for a walk this afternoon. No jacket. Just pajamas. Sorry neighbors.

We’re still nearly two months from the official start of spring and four weeks from the beginning of meteorological spring yet it was spring today! Temperatures are close to 50&#176 on the shore with mid-50&#176s inland.

It won’t last. Winter is persistent. There are surely storms to come.

Today that is the farthest thing from my mind. All I’m thinking about is spring.

A Little Meteorology Lesson On Freezing Rain

Any drop that hits the ground will freeze on contact. Sidewalks, roads, trees all get coated.

Strange schedule tonight at work. Because of the football game and American Idol we were on late with an abbreviated show. I led the newscast talking about the chance for freezing rain. There’s a Freezing Rain Advisory posted from Vermont and New Hampshire all the way to New Jersey.

So much confusion! Freezing rain isn’t sleet. Freezing rain falls as plain old drops but freezes on contact! A little drizzle can coat a highway with ice. More than a little scary.

The squiggle of lines at the top of this entry is all you need to see to understand freezing rain.

Going up-and-down (the “y” axis if you’re not math challenged) on the chart takes you higher and lower in the atmosphere. The yellow spider’s web of lines represent temperature.

The important thing to know is it’s predicted to be at least 37.4&#176 Fahrenheit… maybe a little warmer at 6,000 feet tonight! Any snow at that altitude would melt and fall as rain. It probably won’t refreeze on its way down.

Of course here on the ground we’re in the 20s and low 30s. Any drop that hits will freeze on contact. Sidewalks, roads, trees all get coated.

There doesn’t look to be too much precipitation overnight. Icing will be limited. Even a little is too much.