The Hurricane Center Did A Terrible Job On Ida

I was just having a discussion with a friend about Hurricane Ida. It’s difficult to remember a tropical system this poorly forecast.

Here’s what the Hurricane Center said in their technical discussion Friday night:

ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY 4.

ida-wind-fields.gifSo much for plausible! Ida was forecast to be a tropical storm now, not a powerful hurricane.

A blown forecast like this, even though the storm is far from the mainland, changes how preparations are made. When the forecast is less dependable storm preps become necessary earlier and for more storms.

Bad forecasting is costly.

That being said I can’t tell you who forecasts hurricanes better. I’m not sure anyone does. The Hurricane Center is stocked with very bright people. Most of their lead forecasters are PhDs.

I don’t know how well, or even if, NHC does post storm analysis. In cases like this I’d like to see some outside agency or (more likely) the academic community take a gander and see if there’s anything that should be done differently.

More accurate forecasting of tropical weather systems is a money saver, plain and simple.