It’s 11:32 PM. I have no idea which way the election is going. It does seem that much of the polling was worthless – and some of the rest is probably only correct by luck.
Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio – who knows? This is so exciting and so frustrating.
Posts Tagged ‘Wisconsin’
Nov
02
2004
Unreal
Tuesday, November 2nd, 2004Oct
21
2004
It Could Happen Again
Thursday, October 21st, 2004I am a math guy, so I spend time every day looking at the numbers in the presidential polls. This election is, among other things, fascinating by its mathematical complexity.
Most, not all, polls currently show President Bush with a small lead among likely voters. There’s some question how well the concept of ‘likely voters’ will hold up if this is an election with a very large turnout. Forget that for a moment.
Let’s just say the polls are right, and President Bush takes home a majority of the popular vote. I’m not sure he’ll win. In fact, it is conceivable that Senator Kerry could win the majority of electoral votes without a popular vote plurality.
That would be the Democrats accomplishing the unlikely feat that the Republicans pulled off four years ago. Probability has no memory. Rare events can happen back-to-back.
For the first time tonight, that fact (is fact the right word when all of this is really guesswork piled upon more guesswork?) is headlined on Slate.com¹. Slate’s home page says:
If America Voted Today – Kerry 276, Bush 262
I’ve been seeing similar numbers when I view statewide polls. Florida is very close – probably too close. But, Pennsylvania looks to be ‘blue’ and now Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan are also leaning that way.
As a kid, I remember the Kennedy – Nixon election of 1960. We went to sleep late at night not knowing who won. It is my earliest remembrance of an election. I figured they’d all be that way, but none were… until 2000.
All night? Hell, we waited weeks to find out what was going on.
Remember hanging chads in Florida? People claimed they meant to vote for Al Gore, but voted for Patrick Buchannon by mistake.
I’m not sure how that was read by the rest of the world, but it probably didn’t show our best side. It could happen again.
In the meantime, watching national polls is now worthless. Watch the individual battleground states because that’s where the election will be won or lost. This is the site I go to most often. It might not be the best, but it’s got lots of numbers. I like numbers.
¹ – I am saddened to see Slate use a photo of a smiling John Kerry next to a picture of a scowling George Bush. At this point, a news site should be even handed in every way. This is not.
Oct
02
2004
This Blog – Finder of Lost Items
Saturday, October 2nd, 2004On September 13, an email arrived from Sarah Dermody in Wisconsin.
This is an odd request but. . . among other things, I run a rummage sale for our church in WI. Someone dropped off a little box that contained an autograph book for Campbell JHS 218 (c.1948?) . . . terribly, terribly empty but in great shape
Jun
15
2004
Cousin Michael
Tuesday, June 15th, 2004Over the past few months, and more so recently, I have renewed my friendship with my cousin. That’s not a big deal in most families. My family is very small.
My dad is one of three children, my mother two. Much of my mother’s extended family never made it through World War II. I shudder to think of their fate.
I have one sister and she has three children. None of us live near each other.
My sister’s in Wisconsin – her children away at school most of the year. My folks are in Florida, living the ‘Club Med for Seniors’ lifestyle. Uncle Murray is still in Queens, New York – but his children are in Maryland, Florida and California. You get the point.
And then, there are the relatives I don’t speak with. I won’t go into it here, but it’s my guess every family has its dysfunctionality. Us too.
Cousin Michael was among my closest friends growing up. Through our late teens, in the late 60′s, we were together all the time traveling with friends to Manhattan on Friday’s and Saturday’s to see rock acts at the Village Theater (aka Fillmore East).
Michael was there when I saw Grateful Dead and Moby Grape on the bill with the Joshua Light Show. For a few bucks we saw dozens of shows in that ratty old theater with torn seats on the Lower East Side.
I remember summer evenings with Michael and our friend Larry, taking the subway to Greenwich Village and then walking down McDougall Street past the record stores and head shops. Sometimes stopping at Blimpies for a meal.
In those politically charged years we talked lots of politics. The Vietnam War was raging, and we were of the age to worry about being asked to go there, Michael, who was bolder than I, was much more active. We were all opinionated.
When I left for college, and then a few years later moved to Florida, we drifted apart. It’s only now that I am hearing about what he did during those years. His life would make a pretty compelling book. It would be interesting as fiction – but as a true life tale, it’s fascinating, spiced with familiar names in unfamiliar surroundings.
Michael’s life is very different now. He and his wife Melissa, and their son Max, live on the West Coast. Over the years, Michael mastered the art of education, and has all manner and form of degrees. A few weeks ago he added a PhD to his collection.
I think being married and having a child has been really good for Michael. I’m confident Michael is good for them too.
Recently, Michael and I have been spending more time together on the phone. It’s a shame he lives so far away. I get the better of the deal, calling when my minutes are free – and his probably not.
He is intellectual and analytical a good conversationalist and good sounding board. It’s a shame we lost so many years of friendship.
He, Melissa and Max will be joining us for vacation this summer. I’m looking forward to seeing them again. Las Vegas is not Greenwich Village. Though maybe, in 2004, we go to Las Vegas for the same reasons we went to Greenwich Village. I’m sure we’ll have this discussion later.