Tag: election

I Voted… Two Weeks Ago

My ballot includes paragraphs like this: Vote NO on Measure W. It’s a fraud. Measure W is NOT a “term limits” measure. It is just the opposite. It is a TERM EXTENSION for the Mayor and City Council.

www.ocvote.com fileadmin user_upload elections gen2014 sbs BT239.pdfI voted. Actually, I voted by mail two weeks ago. That’s a first.

It was a ballot, but also a small book! There were four pages with check boxes, plus instructions, short bios from each candidate and statements for and against each ballot proposal. That’s 36 pages in all!

My ballot includes paragraphs like…

Vote NO on Measure W. It’s a fraud. Measure W is NOT a “term limits” measure. It is just the opposite. It is a TERM EXTENSION for the Mayor and City Council.

Speaking of mayor and city council, they are supposed to be elected in a non-partisan fashion. It’s still Democrats versus Republicans. You just have to dig a little deeper to know who is whom.

My cousin, Melissa, is running for Irvine City Council. I’d like to see her elected. She’s probably relieved the campaign is over. It’s been more than an additional full time job… a thankless full time job.

It is nearly impossible for any person to be familiar with everything being decided. Should I really be choosing Orange County Water District, Director District 5? Maybe some positions are better appointed than elected?

A mail-in ballot should encourage high voter turnout, but the complexity of the ballot probably does the opposite. It’s intimidating.

The most highly contested element of today’s election is a proposition which raises the maximum ‘pain and suffering’ payout in medical malpractice lawsuits from $250,000. The insurance industry has spent tens of millions trying to defeat it. The interest of insurance companies and me never seem aligned–especially in this.

I will not miss the political ads in TV. How can they get more objectionable every year?

After Tuesday Who Walks The Plank, Nate or Dick?

Usually when meteorologists get it wrong, we all get it wrong together. Not so for political pollsters and analysts. There are wildly varying opinions available.

Nate Silver, ‘star’ of the Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver’s Political Calculus blog at the NY Times shows President Obama as the prohibitive favorite.

As of Friday afternoon Silver’s number crunching says the president has an 80.9 chance of winning Tuesday with 303.4 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.

I know, you can’t get partial electoral votes, so I’m assuming this is the median of his projections.

Silver says President Obama does this will only 50.5% of the popular vote. When you figure Governor Romney might win Utah by a 3:1 margin and roll strong among other very red states you understand how it’s all possible.

On the other side are analysts like Dick Morris. A few days ago he wrote a piece for The Hill titled, “Opinion: Here comes the landslide.” He’s talking about a Romney landslide and the Republican’s retaking the Senate.

The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite.

Along with Frank Luntz, Morris appears on Fox News Channel. People on the left accuse them of letting partisanship affect their research. Of course folks on the right say the same thing about Nate Silver who has admitted he supports President Obama.

Here’s the deal. Wednesday morning Morris or Silver will be shown to be very wrong. Whomever that is should crawl into the fetal position and disappear.

I’m a math guy specifically because it’s so trustworthy. I hate it when people screw around with it for political purposes.