I am looking at the computer guidance on Isaac. This is not good. Yes, the West Coast of Florida gets brushed and probably bruised. Someone on the Northern Gulf gets pummeled. One of the models is saying New Orleans.
In fact the New Orleans area is the consensus call. However, as you can see from the spaghetti plot above, there isn’t total agreement and the National Hurricane Center will be hard pressed to find a path which will properly convey the seriousness of this storm to everyone who needs to know. Lots of people will end up being warned for no good reason.
The best forecast science can produce isn’t good enough right now!
The Hurricane Center also says sometime Monday there’s a 1:8 chance Isaac will be Category 3 or greater. The chance for Category 2 is around 1:3. Intensity is the weakest piece of the tropical forecast puzzle.
Meanwhile the storm has exited Cuba reasonably intact and will cross directly over the Key West area on Sunday. Tropical Storm Isaac now, Hurricane Isaac then.
The Republican National Convention faces weather problems even when Isaac misses them. How will it look if they’re meeting while the Northern Gulf is turned upside down? What are the optics on that?