Sunday Morning With Isaac

This is not good. Yes, the West Coast of Florida gets brushed and probably bruised. Someone on the Northern Gulf gets pummeled. One of the models is saying New Orleans.

I am looking at the computer guidance on Isaac. This is not good. Yes, the West Coast of Florida gets brushed and probably bruised. Someone on the Northern Gulf gets pummeled. One of the models is saying New Orleans.

In fact the New Orleans area is the consensus call. However, as you can see from the spaghetti plot above, there isn’t total agreement and the National Hurricane Center will be hard pressed to find a path which will properly convey the seriousness of this storm to everyone who needs to know. Lots of people will end up being warned for no good reason.

The best forecast science can produce isn’t good enough right now!

The Hurricane Center also says sometime Monday there’s a 1:8 chance Isaac will be Category 3 or greater. The chance for Category 2 is around 1:3. Intensity is the weakest piece of the tropical forecast puzzle.

Meanwhile the storm has exited Cuba reasonably intact and will cross directly over the Key West area on Sunday. Tropical Storm Isaac now, Hurricane Isaac then.

The Republican National Convention faces weather problems even when Isaac misses them. How will it look if they’re meeting while the Northern Gulf is turned upside down? What are the optics on that?

5 thoughts on “Sunday Morning With Isaac”

  1. I hope New Orleans is spared. They still haven’t recovered. Not that I want Florida to be hit either. Despite great technology, Mother Nature still rules. I say a prayer for safety and being warned for no reason is better than not being warned at all.

  2. As a friend of mine from Tampa noted..What political party in its right mind schedules a convention in Florida in hurricane season?? Matters not if Republican or Democrat….not the wisest move.

  3. What a bummer! We have Cablevision and Fox is no longer on. Hope Cablevision wises up and this won’t last too long. Geoff, how are you feeling? Hope you will be able to run around full speed soon.

  4. looking at that spaghetti plot reminds me of politicians.

    Seems as though you can find one to say what ever it is you want to hear and when you want to hear it!

  5. There is no good time for a political convention. They’re always at the end of August or early September just as they are this year. What will happen? Well, Republican governors of Louisiana, Texas and other Gulf States will head back home. Other delegates will stay put if their families can prepare without them. Why fly into the path when you’re already out of it?

    While the convention is largely a formality, it still is part of the process of selecting the next leader of the free world. It needs to be done. How do you want them to react to the hurricane? How do you not want them to?

    First, politicians are people too. By and large, most of the delegates are people that have gotten involved at the grassroots level (many of them of modest Tea Party means, some college kids) sacrificing time with their families, some from work, and being exposed to cynicism in order to try improving our nation. Looking around at the problems today and there’s no shortage no matter your political viewpoint.

    The group in Tampa understands how to organize people and network large groups. There are leaders of small and medium and large sized businesses. The Democrats are the same. If anything, you WANT a disaster to occur when this group can start networking ideas and start getting things into motion in a more cohesive fashion than if they hadn’t been together (not that they wouldn’t otherwise).

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