Irene Follows The West Case Scenario

At this moment a direct hurricane hit to Connecticut seems the most likely outcome.

My Wednesday blog traffic exploded. This site served over 12,000 pages. You are interested in Hurricane Irene. Me too.

This isn’t a replacement for what I do on-the-air. Pointing at graphics at the chromakey wall is a powerful tool. The blog just provides me more space to go a little deeper. Think of it as the “Special Bonus Material” on a DVD.

There have been a bunch of updates since I last posted. The evening runs of the GFDL and HWRC came in.

I won’t lie. I’m not an expert on the special purpose tropical models, but I speak with people who are.

These insightful models have both shifted west toward the area the ECMWF pointed to. The 00Z GFS is now in as well. It too has shifted toward the ECMWF solution.

The Hurricane Center moved its official track west earlier tonight. There will probably be more movement west. The next ‘major’ bulletin comes in at 5:00 AM.

This move to the west means more wind for us. It also means more water forced up into coves, bays and estuaries off the sound. The storm is coming at New Moon. Tides will be at their extremes–high and low.

At this moment a direct hurricane hit to Connecticut seems the most likely outcome. The storm will probably be stronger than Hurricane Gloria, but nowhere near as strong as 1938.

Expect to stay put Sunday. Some of you might even be advised to go to a shelter.

Often, folks will ask me if they should or shouldn’t do an activity because of weather. Because I don’t know your capabilities, the importance of the event, or the equipment you’ll be using, there’s no way I could ever say yes. If you ask I will always say, “No!”

Conditions change. Tropical storms, steered by very weak upper air winds, are more fidgety than larger systems. They’re prone to wobble. They often change direction without notice. Don’t be surprised if this forecast gets ‘revised’ more than once before Sunday.

At home we are making plans, but we’re still being casual about it.