Irene Follows The West Case Scenario

At this moment a direct hurricane hit to Connecticut seems the most likely outcome.

My Wednesday blog traffic exploded. This site served over 12,000 pages. You are interested in Hurricane Irene. Me too.

This isn’t a replacement for what I do on-the-air. Pointing at graphics at the chromakey wall is a powerful tool. The blog just provides me more space to go a little deeper. Think of it as the “Special Bonus Material” on a DVD.

There have been a bunch of updates since I last posted. The evening runs of the GFDL and HWRC came in.

I won’t lie. I’m not an expert on the special purpose tropical models, but I speak with people who are.

These insightful models have both shifted west toward the area the ECMWF pointed to. The 00Z GFS is now in as well. It too has shifted toward the ECMWF solution.

The Hurricane Center moved its official track west earlier tonight. There will probably be more movement west. The next ‘major’ bulletin comes in at 5:00 AM.

This move to the west means more wind for us. It also means more water forced up into coves, bays and estuaries off the sound. The storm is coming at New Moon. Tides will be at their extremes–high and low.

At this moment a direct hurricane hit to Connecticut seems the most likely outcome. The storm will probably be stronger than Hurricane Gloria, but nowhere near as strong as 1938.

Expect to stay put Sunday. Some of you might even be advised to go to a shelter.

Often, folks will ask me if they should or shouldn’t do an activity because of weather. Because I don’t know your capabilities, the importance of the event, or the equipment you’ll be using, there’s no way I could ever say yes. If you ask I will always say, “No!”

Conditions change. Tropical storms, steered by very weak upper air winds, are more fidgety than larger systems. They’re prone to wobble. They often change direction without notice. Don’t be surprised if this forecast gets ‘revised’ more than once before Sunday.

At home we are making plans, but we’re still being casual about it.

9 thoughts on “Irene Follows The West Case Scenario”

  1. Planned a Bon Voyage Off to College cookout with family & friends for my daughter, now must post a rain date (no pun intended) for when?

  2. Mentioned this before, am going to mention it again. “Glow stick” chemical lights. They light up at least as much as a candle (depending on what kind you get, some are considerably brighter), one will last all night, and there’s no fire danger. Even the trick-or-treat/rave type cheap ones will give off enough light to find your way to the bathroom – the ones they sell for camping are probably enough to play cards by. Hang them on a string in the middle of the room or better yet in front of a mirror. Great too if you’ve got kids that are afraid of the dark.

  3. Geoff wasn’t it about 2 weeks ago that you posted a long range forecast with a graphic showing p storm close to Long Island. ( I can’t find it ) I hope she curves east as I have friends and family still in Ct.

  4. Geoff PLEASE PLEASE remind Dialysis patients to have a hurricane kit ready in case the Dialysis clinics are shut down. This kit will help them last several days without Dialysis treatments. I put mine together yesterday. I do it every year but I am afraid this year I may have yo use it. ๐Ÿ™

  5. I linked to your page on Ravelry where we were discussing the hurricane. That was yesterday. People seem to think they happen all the around here and it’s not a big deal. I was really surprised this morning to find that Gloria is the only one you’ve covered here, it’s the only one I remember but I am only 33, I just assumed it’s been a quiet 20 years. Maybe they used to happen more, I don’t know. But I am not looking forward to it or brushing it off. Thanks for all the Irene info, it’s interesting to see your mind tick.

  6. My son came in yesterday from Austin for a weeklong visit. We have a family picnic planned for Saturday, I was hoping to get Noank for a seaside dinner to celebrate my birthday on Sunday then hit the beach in RI on Monday to end summer vacation on a high note. :-/ No matter what, I will be with those that I love so whatever happens, happens. Thanks for your straight forward, no hype forecasts!!!!

  7. A contact of mine at the Long Island Sector United States Coast Guard says they they are in condition Whiskey – Gale Force Winds in 72 hours. Be safe everyone!

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