Tag: Snow

The Weather Is Just Nuts!

The question is, how much sticks? Does any? Does all of it?

Bob, my professorial meteo friend popped an email to me a few hours ago. It was short and to the point.

rain in albany, snow in central park at same time – don’t see that too often

stream.NY-large.pngActually, you never see that. The streamline map on the left (click on the map as the real detail isn’t visible in the thumbnail image), not always a great rain/snow predictor makes today’s line vividly clear. Of course that’s a snapshot in time. The line will shift east later tonight.

That’s where my quandary lies. I’m reasonably sure it will snow. If I scrape my mouse across one of the tools that help me analyze the computer guidance I see around 10″ of snow by tomorrow night at New Haven. There are varying amounts elsewhere, but this is just an example.

The question is, how much sticks? Does any? Does all of it?

These aren’t totally uncharted waters, but it’s certainly an unusual enough scenario that I’ll take pause. There’s too much water on the ground now to be easily absorbed–to perk beneath the surface.

Temperatures will fall below 32&#176, but will they fall enough to freeze the water and allow snow to fall on top? That’s a really rare setup, water-to-ice with a snow capper, which implies it’s difficult to achieve.

Snow and water don’t mix. Snow always loses. Nothing will accumulate before freezing sets in.

Is it possible to have 10″ of snow fall and have none stick? Maybe. I’m really going to have to think this through and probably chat it up with friends/colleagues to get a better grasp. I’m not sure any of us have any experience quite like this.

So, how’s your day? I don’t go to work for another hour and I’ve already been working for a few!

The Winter Storm Thing… Again

That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run!

KBDL precip from coolwx.pngOne of the weaknesses of making long range forecasts is you get to anguish over storms for a l-o-n-g time. Take tonight’s little doozie. This system has been well modeled by the computers for more than a week–since it was well out in the Pacific.

With each succeeding run it seemed more likely Connecticut would have some impact. The question was how much impact and from what? Would it be snowy or just rainy and raw? This part of the equation seemed beyond the computer’s expertise.

That’s not to say the models didn’t venture guesses. It’s just the guesses changed each time the programs were run! Though some of the prior results are seeded into the next run’s initialization, there’s little memory these machines maintain from forecast-to-forecast.

Now it looks like the rain/snow line was so hard to get at because it will be moving over us. The storm will be snow then rain. But when the turnover?

There will be plenty of quality number time today. My love of math will be tested with charts and graphs and maps. It’s a geek’s paradise.

I’ve got a horse in the race this time. Helaine’s due back in Connecticut late tomorrow night. I am in charge of transport.
Predicting the weather’s impact on airlines is rough. Most likely she will make it to Connecticut without problem, but face some snowy roads on our way home.

Spring is almost here and I can’t wait. I really can’t!