China – Geoff Fox: My Permanent Record

A Put Up/Shut Up Moment For McDonalds

The competition’s tough. Baby, that’s a pity.

Mickey D’s just announced a horrible quarter. Profits are down 30%. According to Reuters it’s because of “a food scandal in China and tough competition in the United States.”

The competition’s tough. Baby, that’s a pity.

Where were we?

How will McDonalds go about building its profit? Will it raise its prices? This is what the fast food industry has screamed any time the subject of raising wages comes up.

My guess is price raising is the last thing they’ll do. And, in spite of their kvetching, it would also be among the last things they’d do if forced to pay a more reasonable wage to the McDonalds crew.

I get it. Underpaying employees is fabulously profitable. It’s also reprehensible.

Let’s see how McDonalds goes about dealing with this crisis. It will tell us a lot about their honesty on the wage front.

McDonalds made over a billion dollars in this past quarter on revenue of seven billion.

Breathing Air You Can See

Have you seen the pictures from Harbin, China? Smog got so bad school was cancelled and the airport closed. Visibility was so low drivers couldn’t see traffic lights, often until it was too late!

You can cancel school and close airports, but you’ve got to breath. Breathing shouldn’t be hazardous to your health!

You know, that used to be the story here in the Los Angeles area. Maybe not as bad as China, but at one time LA smog was the butt of jokes from coast-to-coast. We had air you could see! Long time Angelinos remember well. Mountain vistas would disappear for days or weeks at a time. Eyes would tear. Hacking coughs would persist.

Our smog is primarily linked to automobile tailpipes, but our location has a lot to do with it as well.

Most of us live in a low basin with mountains to the east. Temperature inversions trap emissions in the atmosphere, then sunlight (which we have plenty of) converts them to secondary pollutants, like ozone.

Before there were cars and industry there was haze in the Southland, but it took the internal combustion engine and dirty fuels to make that haze poisonous.

Too depressing. You deserve some good news… and there is some. According to NOAA:

“In California’s Los Angeles Basin, levels of some vehicle-related air pollutants have decreased by about 98 percent since the 1960s, even as area residents now burn three times as much gasoline and diesel fuel.”

We have what Harbin, China does not–very stringent pollution controls. Our cars run cleaner. We evaporate less fuel into the atmosphere. We’re more careful about what’s emitted from smokestacks
and chimneys.

Ask a seasoned SoCal native what it used to be like here. You might be amazed.

We still don’t meet the EPA’s standards for ozone levels. But, we’re moving in the right direction. On the other hand Harbin’s air pollution was 40 times what the World Health Organization considers safe!

Getting cleaner air isn’t easy and it isn’t cheap. That’s one reason developing nations see some of the worst air.

“See some of the worst air.” Pun intended.

The Sad State Of American Manufacturing

Maybe it’s not slave labor in the traditional 19th Century America sense, but it’s the 21st Century equivalent.

There was a long article in Sunday’s New York Times, “How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work.” It’s pretty sad because it’s really about manufacturing in general and our inability to compete in the world market.

Since the story was published I’ve seen some references to the ability of foreign companies to be flexible–turn on a dime to fit changing production needs–as the story’s takeaway.

“The entire supply chain is in China now,” said another former high-ranking Apple executive. “You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That’s the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours.”

Red herring! Aggregating vendors around a production center could happen if American manufacturers wanted it. Unfortunately few really want to manufacture here.

Here’s why we’re losing business. Americans aren’t willing to set our way of life back 100 years. Take this story of Apple’s production change for iPhone glass screens:

A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day.

Americans don’t want to compete if competing means living in dorms, eight strangers to a room while making pennies an hour! Maybe it’s not slave labor in the traditional 19th Century America sense, but it’s the 21st Century equivalent.

We (and by we I include me) encourage this race to the bottom by buying totally on price. I am morally disturbed every time I think of it, but I have no idea what to do.

I make the situation worse with each piece of Chinese produced electronics I buy. Without the Chinese today there is nothing.

How sad.

I’ve Been Hacked From China – Someone Call General Tso

Seriously, is there anyone who doesn’t use the same password on more than one account? I already balance five or six passwords in my head. One for each site I visit would be nuts!

I checked in with Gmail a little earlier. Those Google boys run all my email accounts. There was a message with scary red type. Someone had logged into my account from China! The Gmail crew was wondering whether that was OK by me?

I’m a tech savvy guy. It really was from Gmail containing some details no spammer could ever conjure.

I have accounts on lots of sites. Many use the same password. That’s probably how whoever broke in gained access. This is the kind of password you can’t just guess. It’s now changed.

Thankfully this particular password wasn’t associated with any account that has access to my money. It was however my favorite. I’ve used it since the early days of the Internet.

I looked through Gmail again after the change. Everything seems intact. This should be an effective remedy.

It’s time we found a way to replace passwords. Seriously, is there anyone who doesn’t use the same password on more than one account? I already balance five or six passwords in my head. One for each site I visit would be nuts!

Antiques Roadshow

I am a skeptic. I know nothing at all about antiques, but a lot about people. When their business benefits by higher valuations can you really trust these appraisers?

Helaine asked if we could watch Antiques Roadshow tonight. AR has been on PBS for eight seasons, though it seems longer.

You know the show. People bring tchotchkes in from home. Officious experts look them over and then appraise them. Seemingly everything is worth a fortune.

I want to hear one expert say, “What a piece of garbage. I hope you didn’t go to any trouble saving this crap.” They never do. “Your parents were playing a joke on you when they left you this.”

Paintings, China, jewelery, ukuleles all are worth thousands… maybe tens of thousands of dollars. The people are flabbergasted. “I had no idea,” said one.

I am a skeptic. I know nothing at all about antiques, but a lot about people. When their business benefits by higher valuations can you really trust these appraisers?

I’m waiting for the first person hear the dollar figure, turn to the person who gave it and say, “Can I get that in cash?”

Comments And The Chinese Electric Car

No one, certainly not me, wants to be accused of racial prejudice. Make no mistake, it was disturbing just to be accused.

I wrote an entry on Gearlog last night about the new Chinese electric car from BYD. As with most of my posts for them (and here) there was plenty of me infused in the article and lots of my opinion. I am lucky that my editors give me latitude in that regard.

“From those fabulous folks who brought you the $40 Rolex watch and melamine laced baby formula (and pet food) it’s the electric car! Monday morning BYD unveiled the F3DM, China’s first mass produced electric sedan.”

Uh oh! I woke this morning and checked the comments.

“Why is racial prejudice so ingrained in the minds of the American culture? It is shameful that the author of this article thinks it is his duty to insult BYD and the Chinese people in general by opening this article with irrelevant and insulting references to Rolex knockoffs and tainted milk. Where does BYD fit into these imbecile ridicules?

Who knew? I told Helaine I was going to respond. She said don’t.

I checked back later today. I was being defended by strangers.

“The reference to a “knock off” is because the exterior is a knock off; just look at it! The technical advances are “inside” as rightly pointed out in the article. Get over it, I have (I’m Chinese). The author also took a good crack at GM too, saying its Volt is a “2010 dream”… why not have a go at him for saying that? I was in no way insulted or felt the article contained racial bias.

If you get ‘told off’ by someone, don’t first say its because you’re ethnically different, perhaps the person doing the ‘telling off’ does this to everyone, or perhaps you deserved it. If you still feel the article was refereeing to ‘stereo typing’ then we only have the Chinese government to blame for allowing knockoffs to occur so openly. “

Later another commenter came on.

“have you listened to any on the Chinese dialects such as Cantonese or even Mandarin recently? I’d say racial prejudice is pretty ingrained in us Chinese too. A lot of people I know still use “鬼佬” or something similar when referring to foreigners.”

Where do I start? Helaine was right. I would only have started a flame war. The other two comments have allowed me to rest easier. No one, certainly not me, wants to be accused of racial prejudice. Make no mistake, it was disturbing just to be accused.

On top of this what’s amazing is the reach of Gearlog. The site gets around 650,000 page views per month from every corner of the Earth. I suspect one or two of these commenters was from China. The world continues to get smaller.

I’m Not Excited By The Olympics

I suspect the athletes will not suffer irreparable harm during these few weeks. I cannot say the same for Beijing’s citizens.

Maybe things will change as the games get underway, but at-the-moment I’m not excited by the Olympics. Other than one or two notable exceptions I know no names. I feel no xenophobic urge to kvell for the USA team, though it’s probably nice if we they bring home medals.

Are there any real amateurs participating in the games anymore? Our society has come around to accept that change I suppose.

China has shown itself to be incredibly adept at keeping the world’s largest population under close watch. Now it’s extending that skill set, watching the world’s largest contingent of tourists and press. No matter what is said to the contrary, the press gladly reports on its own troubles. If minders are too restrictive, you’ll hear about it.

I worry about terrorism. I’m less concerned about protest than the Chinese government probably is.

The weather and air quality have been fairly close to the worrisome scenario painted months ago. I’ve been checking meteorological observations every day, finding the dew point at Beijing’s airport in the mid and upper 70&#176s on a regular basis and visibility of 1-2 miles common.

Back in February I wrote of the potential Olympic weather:

So, when the deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau says, “Even if the rare extreme weather hits Beijing in August, people will not feel muggy. High humidity will not accompany the hot weather in August because their climax periods are different, ” I’d hide the silverware and other valuables.

Good call Geoff!

The well trained Olympic athletes will work under these conditions, just as Beijing’s citizens do. They will breath the foul air, just as Beijing’s citizens do. I suspect the athletes will not suffer irreparable harm during these few weeks. I cannot say the same for Beijing’s citizens.

Changes Through My Life

That’s an important point not to be missed. Many things that did exist have been democratized by sharply falling prices.

When I was a kid, I’d ask my parents what their life was like growing up. I heard their words and knew their world was quite different. I never fully understood how much things had changed.

They listened to the radio, which was programmed like television… well, like television used to be when it was dominated by scripted programs. “We used our imaginations,” my mother would say. I’m sure they did. That kind of radio didn’t stand a chance when TV came along.

I was reading an article in the paper tonight which, reminded me of those conversations with my folks and made me think of how I’d answer that question today. How has the world changed since my childhood?

A short list of things that didn’t exist, or weren’t available to me:

Computers
Microwaves
Satellites/Astronauts
Cable TV
Remote Control
Affordable long distance phone service
Affordable airfare
VCRs/DVRs
Any digital media
Touchtone phones
Seatbelts/Padded Dash/Crumple Zones
Transistors/ICs/LSI
Fruit in the winter
Single Serve Bottled Water
McDonalds, etc
Family safe/friendly Times Square
Answering machines/Voicemail
Credit Cards

I looked around the room while I typed that. So many of the things I’m looking at were unavailable or unaffordable to most people.

That’s an important point not to be missed. Many things that did exist have been democratized by sharply falling prices. Nothing is more amazing than what’s happened to long distance rates.

In 1950, New York-LA, 5 minute call: $3.70, 10 minute call: $6.70. Tack on inflation and New York-LA, 5 minute call in 1950, in 2003 dollars: $28.19, 10 minute call: $51.04!

Businesses needed workers a lot more back then. Workers are expensive. Bosses looked to replace as many as they could. They couldn’t. We weren’t in competition with China. Hell, we weren’t speaking to China. International shipping was a nightmare.

My parents made their younger years sound romantic. That’s not what I see when I look back. There’s little of anything I’d want reverted to its original state. Today is better than yesterday.

People are scared of terrorism today, but we were scared of the Soviets and “the bomb.” Are the potential consequences really any different? Do they hate us any less?

I don’t know where the next changes will come from, but there’s no doubt more innovation is on the way. The long term future is unpredictable. Maybe that’s what makes it so much fun.

A Modern Buyer’s Quandary – My EBay Story

EBay had done to my seller what George Bush wishes he could do to photos of him in front of the “Mission Accomplished” banner! They made him disappear.

I’m a 21st Century guy. I buy online all the time. That’s why tonight, I am the proud recipient of this:

Item Not Received Dispute Open: Case #PP-448-713-624

Damn!

I have become obsessed with time lapse photography, so I bought an intervalometer. That’s the instrument that rhythmically fires the shutter on my still camera, making the time lapse happen.

It was a good price from an EBay seller with an excellent and long track record. Sure he was in China, but I’ve bought from there before.

Because I had a small balance, two thirds of my purchase came from it, the rest from my credit card.

Today, 10 days after the sale, I went to show someone at work what I’d bought, only to find the listing gone. The seller’s gone too!

10:45:09 PM AgentGrace G.

the item has been removed on the site by our Trust and Safety Department due to listing violation.

10:45:19 PM AgentGrace G.

So the sale may be considered null and void.

10:45:39 PM AgentGrace G.

In this case, what you can do is to contact PayPal to file a claim to get a refund.

I can tell you from past experience, Grace wasn’t about to reveal what had gone wrong. EBay had done to my seller what George Bush wishes he could do to photos of him in front of the “Mission Accomplished” banner! They made him disappear.

She added, “It’s a good thing that you paid it through PayPal as they offer money back guarantee.”

That would be great… except:

If the claim is decided in my favor, will I get all of my money back?

If a claim is decided in your favor, PayPal will make every effort to recover funds from the seller. The amount of money you are eligible to receive depends on a number of factors…

I’ll spare you the rest.

PayPal is owned by EBay, which is great, when it benefits them. When it doesn’t, they might as well be the Israelis and the Palestinians… and I’m some poor shnook from Gambia sent by the UN to stand between them.

I’ve chatted, been on the phone, and now filled out some forms. I’ve got a dispute going which PayPal promises to try and resolve it within thirty days. They’re promising to try, not promising to do. That’s the same as promising nothing.

So, what do I do? Should I plunk our another $50 and wait while someone else in China fills my order? None of these intervalometers with the proper cabling for my camera seem to exist in the states.

It’s possible my order could still come. It’s only been 10 days, which includes two weekends. China is still pretty far when surface transportation is being used. And, he could have shipped before EBay whacked him.

Tonight, I am frustrated and EBay’s the center of my frustration.

A New Obsession

I always thought this was done with video or movie cameras. Not so. The best looking time lapse photography is taken with still cameras, like “Clicky” my Canon Digital Rebel.

I have spent the last day or so obsessing. It all started with a link, that led to a link, that led to Ross Ching’s website and Eclectic 2. Ross Ching is the master&#178 of time lapse photography. Eclectic 2 is his latest masterpiece.

Simply put, time lapse photography speeds up action. A full day of traffic or clouds or anything can be boiled down to a few seconds. The true fluidity of nature, usually masked by our normal time frame, becomes instantly obvious.

I always thought this was done with video or movie cameras. Not so. The best looking time lapse photography is taken with still cameras, like “Clicky” my Canon Digital Rebel&#185.

An electronic switch controls the shutter, allowing it to open at set intervals and for a set amount of time. Officially, it’s an ‘intervalometer.’ I’ve already ordered one on EBay. It’s coming from China.

Ross also uses a telescope’s planetary mount to slowly pan and tilt the camera. Normally, these are used to track the motion of the Earth, so long duration photos of the sky can be taken without the stars smudging or forming trails. It has to be capable of very slow, very dependable, but steady, motion, like turning 180&#176 over a few hours.

Sounds like a good Father’s Day gift.

After hundreds of still photos are taken, a video editing program is used to piece them together producing the finished moving image. Because a digital still camera usually has better optics and a better sensor than a ‘regular’ video camera, the finished product can be spectacular. But, because it’s a time lapse, this is all very time consuming with a few minutes of video taking hours and hours.

There are some pretty cool video on the web, but none cooler than those from Ross – a college student. If you haven’t clicked to look yet, you really should.

Right now I’m chomping at the bit to join in. I have my own ideas on some shots that might be very interesting.

&#185 – I don’t know which is stranger, that I’ve named my camera, or that friends have actually referred to my camera by its name without prompting! We’re all very troubled.

&#178 – Since I wrote this, I have stumbled upon 599 Productions in Burbank. Wow, these are amazing too. Where Ross concentrates on rural settings, “599” shoots lots of nighttime city videos, which I find particularly attractive.

The Economy

Like him, I really am worried about the economy – and not just the stuff that’s been mishandled, like subprime mortgages, and other monetary slights of hand. We have seen a fundamental shift in the way of the world. We are no longer only competing against other ‘first world’ nations.

I walked into a local business today. It was a place I hadn’t been in before, but the owner knew me from TV.

I didn’t prompt him. He just looked at me and said, “I’ve never seen the economy this bad before.” Then he began to talk about business.

If you live in Kansas and answer phones for a living, it’s impossible to compete with someone in Bangalore who will work for 20% of your pay. The same goes for manufacturing and agriculture and nearly everything else.

JetBlue has airplane maintenance performed in Central America. Reuters has financial reporters look at US companies from India. The list is endless. There’s little you can think of that can’t be done cheaper elsewhere.

Then there are the box stores. When they replace 10, 15, 20 local business, they also displace the workers from those businesses. This ‘little guy’ I spoke with, a baker, was very worried about Wal*Mart, Costco and especially supermarkets.

What is the economic impact if his handful of employees is replaced by one or two in a big store?

In the past, labor saving devices made lives better for employees. After all, the forty hour week is a relatively recent arrival. Today, labor saving devices produce higher productivity for employers and if jobs can be cut, so be it.

My bosses, bosses, boss has a legal duty to protect the financial interest of his shareholders. If he puts me first, he’s violating the law!

Globally, we are on shaky ground trying to defend our standard of living to the Indians and Chinese who are taking our jobs. Look where we are. Look where they are.

I have been through recessions before, and we’ve always recovered. I have always been pessimistic going in, but once the economy was properly repriced, growth returned. My pessimism was misplaced.

This time, I am petrified our economic engine will have to be revalued against a world that can do what we do, only cheaper (and in many countries like China, with less kvetching from the workers). It’s a very scary scenario.

Right now, I have no answers, only questions.

GPS Arrives

Right now, I’m astounded by its simplicity. Two lights and one button drive the whole show. A small ‘open air’ pad connects it to a holder containing the USB cable.

Where am I? Now I’ll know. The little GPS tracker arrived today.

Three days from California to Connecticut thanks to the USPS.

I read through the (not originally written in English) instructions, charged it a little and then headed to work. I’ll let you know how it works later.

Right now, I’m astounded by its simplicity. Two lights and one button drive the whole show. A small ‘open air’ pad connects it to a holder containing the USB cable.

A sample, attached to the documentation, shows a vacation trip through China (the developer no doubt) with photos attached to a Google map. I can’t wait to try it myself.

Good God, I’m nerdy.

More later.

Spinning The Weather Chinese Style

A few weeks ago, I created a page on this website that aggregates news stories about meteorology. Truthfully, I wanted to play with an application, and meteorology was just a subject I plucked to use. I didn’t expect a useful page.

Wrong. I’ve been reading it pretty regularly and it’s actually very cool. Surprise on me.

I just took a look and found a story from the Xinhua News Agency.

Xinhuanet was launched in 1997 as the online news service of Xinhua News Agency. It releases important news about China and the world around the clock without stop by relying on the agency’s worldwide information-gathering network.

Chances slim for Beijing Olympics to stand extreme weather was the headline. I began to read. The tone is defensive. People are saying Chinese weather might not be great for Olympic athletes. The Chinese don’t want to hear that.

Guo Liwen, head of the bureau’s climate center told Xinhua that records in the last 30 years showed that Beijing’s average temperature in August is 24.9 degrees centigrade, relatively genial weather for the athletes.

He noted that there is no need to worry about the hot weather, adding that the data of 29.8 degrees centigrade as average August Beijing temperature cited by some foreign media are incorrect.

“The 29.8 degrees centigrade is the average highest temperature in August,” he said.

Yeah – right. How awful to actually use the more meaningful numbers!

Hello. The athletes aren’t worried about averages. They’re worried about what it’s going to be like in the heat of the day. 29.8&#186C equals 86&#186 Fahrenheit. Not the worst, but still a bit warm for strenuous outdoor activity.

I went to Weather Underground’s incredibly useful trip planner to see what the real story is.

There is a 22% chance of a Hot Day (temperature over 90°F / 32°C).
(37 days out of 170 in historical record)

Most consecutive days found in historic record: 5
There is a 33% chance of a Cloudy Day.
(48 days out of 147 in historical record)

Most consecutive days found in historic record: 4
There is a 72% chance of a Sweltering Day (dew point over 70°F / 21°C).
(123 days out of 170 in historical record)

Most consecutive days found in historic record: 15

Technically speaking, are they smoking crack over there?

Second Guessing Knock Offs

In the past, I’ve talked about buying knockoff watches and other ‘almost’ things on the Lower East Side in Manhattan. You may decide for yourself whether my purchases have been good or not.

I really didn’t think there was harm in what I was doing. I wasn’t going to buy the high end, name brand, real deal anyway. I find it tough to believe anyone’s buying the Roleckcs and eschewing the Rolex. They certainly never lost a sale from me.

In the past I heard shadow stories about how buying knockoffs support al-Qaeda. Seriously, is there a story with less credence?

Here’s the part of the equation I never thought about. Knockoffs aren’t limited to designer clothes and accessories. There are knockoff drugs and auto parts being made. These knockoffs replace items that provide ‘mission critical’ functions.

My watches come from China (though the case may say otherwise). So did the knockoff Colgate toothpaste, with poisonous additive. Did one beget the other?

If my $30 watch fails, who cares? It’s different if it’s my Lipitor or airplane engine component.

We have become very dependent on the Chinese to make stuff for us. They do, on the cheap. But we’re also buying into their way of doing business, which doesn’t seem to have the same respect for intellectual property as we’re used to. On top of that, there is little regard for the manufacturing employees&#185, much less the consumers at the end of the trail.

Corners are cut. Ingredients aren’t what they seem. The controls we expect aren’t in place. Does anyone police it?

I don’t want to think my purchases encouraged this… but maybe they did

It’s troubling. I’ll admit it.

&#185 – A nameless friend, in China to produce some news stories, visited a plant where workers were plating metal, dipping it, along with their unprotected hands and arms, into a mysterious chemical solution. As toothless as EPA and OSHA are, I can’t imaging that happening here.

Everyone’s At Ikea

“What do you do with your photos,” I’ve been asked? Considering I’ve taken around 25,000 shots with my Canon, it’s a reasonable question.

For a while, I did nothing. Then, this fall and again a few weeks ago, I had picture books made. I’ve also had some shots printed. I was well over 10,000 shots taken before that began.

I started with 5x7s and 8x10s. They seemed reasonably large. After all, a ‘regular’ photo print is 4×6 and 8×10 is four times larger than that!

Then I visited my friend Peter in Ventnor City, NJ.

Peter has a few immense prints on his wall and they look great. Some he took at the Jersey Shore. Other shots came from Hawaii.

I stood and stared and, quite honestly, was envious. They really did look great.

Today, I drove to Ikea in New Haven to find some frames, so I could hang my soon-to-arrive larger sized prints.

Ikea is a chain of large warehouse-like home furnishings stores. The home office is in Sweden, the stores are found worldwide and most of the merchandise is made in China.

The secret to Ikea’s success is very clean, simply styled, inexpensive stuff for your home or apartment. It’s mostly unassembled, so you can carry it home in your car. With Ikea, there’s no longer a need to have that brick and board bookshelf!

Though the store is a warehouse, it’s very inviting. Picture frames are hung. Fixtures are lit. Furniture is displayed in partitioned off home and apartment sized rooms.

I got off I-95, turned into the parking lot and gasped. It was Sunday afternoon at 4:00 PM and Ikea’s lot looked like the mall on the last shopping day before Christmas!

I may be a guy, but I do ask directions. I might still be wandering around if I hadn’t.

I was disappointed they didn’t have everything I wanted. All my frames are simple and black. I wanted more of the same.

I bought a few 16x20s and a 5-photo frame which displays 5x7s. I wanted some 12x16s and more 8×10 frames, but there were none to be found in black. I can go back or try them online.

On my way back I stopped at Michael’s to get a matte cut. One photo from my last batch was oddly sized.

I uploaded and ordered more prints tonight. I’m now ready to attack the two walls set aside as my gallery. It’s pretty exciting and a lot of fun.

And, on top of that, I hit Ikea and Michael’s in one afternoon! How many guys will admit to that?

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