Tag: Katrina

Tuesday Night With Isaac

This storm has turned into weather porn for The Weather Channel and to a lesser extent the cable news nets. If your reporter is literally on-the-beach don’t tell me how bad it is. If it was that bad he/she wouldn’t be on the beach.

…CENTER OF ISAAC NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…STORM
SURGE FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING…

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.9N 89.2W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.64 INCHES

The Gulf of Mexico is loaded with oil rigs. Some have weather observing gear in use even while the rigs are unmanned. A few hours ago one in the Mississippi Canyon area reported a wind gust of 92 knots (106 mph).

The anemometer on this rig is up around 260 feet above the water line. Surface speeds though brutal are surely less.

Wind damage is caused by gusts, but hurricanes are ranked by their sustained wind. I have found no hurricane force sustained winds onshore or off. No big surprise. This is common.

There are probably some winds near NHC’s 80 mph reading for Isaac, now officially a hurricane. As is nearly always the case the official number will be higher than what nearly anyone gets&#185.

Isaac is not Katrina. It’s not as strong. It’s not as well defined on imagery. It’s just not. It probably won’t ever be.

In spite of Rush Limbaugh’s, “It’s the Democrats’ wet dream that this thing hit New Orleans,” no one wanted destruction like Katrina.

A little oceanography before we move on. There are three factors that build waves and move water: wind, time and fetch. A weaker storm can bring more water if it’s allowed to sit for a long time. Hurricane Isaac has slowed, so that’s now a concern, but again probably well below Katrina.

$15 billion has been spent shoring up New Orleans’ defenses. They’re still susceptible. Not as much.

This storm has turned into weather porn for The Weather Channel and to a lesser extent the cable news nets. If your reporter is literally on-the-beach don’t tell me how bad it is. If it was that bad he/she wouldn’t be on the beach.

I don’t expect Isaac to live up to its hype.

This is not to say evacuations aren’t necessary is some areas. They are and lives will be saved. There will be damage. There will be flooding. There will be post-Isaac news porn with visible destruction on TV.

It’s likely Isaac will parallel the Mississippi Delta’s western edge and not make landfall until sometime Wednesday. Last night I tweeted a Tuesday afternoon landfall. Guilty as charged. Not every forecast is right.

The Gulf of Mexico is beautiful. It is an idyllic location, but no one lives there without understanding the potential downside.

&#185 – A notable exception was Hurricane Andrew.

Isaac Makes Its Run Toward New Orleans

Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

With each hour Isaac seems more likely to impact the Gulf Coast near New Orleans. It’s tough to hear that and not think of what happened seven years ago. That scenario is repeatable, but each storm is different. Certainly Isaac and Katrina are very different.

The Hurricane Center lists Isaac at 70 mph, just below hurricane strength. This afternoon a Hurricane Hunter airplane spotted 74 knot (85 mph) winds at around 5,000 feet. Surface wind would be lower. Objective satellite analysis this morning at 10:00 AM from the University of Wisconsin (they are the kings of satellite analysis and interpretation) pegged Isaac at 50 knots (58 mph).

Maybe it’s 70 mph, maybe it’s less. It makes little difference. Isaac is moving over warm, open water.

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS.

Let’s step back seven years for a second. Where was the worst wind damage from Katrina? Not New Orleans! Wind damage was worst on the Mississippi Coast.

New Orleans dodged the bullet on classical hurricane damage. Instead New Orleans suffered a failure of human design which came long after the storm was gone and the wind had mainly subsided.

Please read this blog entry I wrote early on the morning of August 30, 2005. It was when the outside world first heard a hint of what would become New Orleans’ plight.

A weaker storm would mean less water pushed up the Mississippi to levees now hardened (a little). That is my hope. That’s not a certainty.

As I said, Katrina and Isaac are very different. All sorts of stuff can go wrong that didn’t go wrong last time. New Orleans could get more wind. I am worried Isaac’s forward speed will slow down Tuesday night meaning a longer period of tropical weather conditions and the problems that brings.

Here in Connecticut the longer sustained period of easterly winds over Long Island Sound with Irene added to coastal flooding and structural damage.

Most likely landfall is Wendesday morning. Isaac will bring pain.