The Snowy Prize

The subject turned to snow and then a little friendly pool the guys were were having. Each threw in $5, with the winner getting the bundle for predicting the January snowfall at Madison’s Dane County Regional-Truax Field Airport.

I am lucky enough to be friendly with a bunch of the service techs at the company we buy our weather equipment from. They are squirreled away in Madison, WI, figuring out ways to make weather a more compelling story on TV.

Last month I was speaking with Bruce, one of those techs, and the subject turned to snow and then a little friendly pool the guys were were having. Each threw in $5, with the winner getting the bundle for predicting the January snowfall at Madison’s Dane County Regional-Truax Field Airport.

I asked in. I know nothing about winter weather in Wisconsin, except it’s cold, windy and snow filled.

My guess was 16″, which led Bruce to post this.

Thought I would give everyone a quick update on the KMSN January snow pool. Geoff Fox jumped in at the last second with a prediction of 16″. So the revised winning snowfall ranges are as follows…

Pat 4.2″, Brian 7.7″, Chris 8.2″ and John and Bruce both picked 8.7″ and Geoff at 16″

So the breakdown is as follows:

5.9″ or less Pat wins

6.0″ – 7.9″ Brian wins

8.0″ – 8.4″ Chris wins

8.5″ – 12.3″ John & Bruce win

12.4″ and higher Geoff wins

After 13 days, KMSN currently stands at 4.5″

My guess was way too high. It was obvious these other (mostly) meteorologists were more attuned to their local climatology than I was.

I sent Bruce $5 via PayPal and forgot about the whole thing until last night. Curious, I fired off an email with just two words: “How bad?”

Smarty pants…you smoked us…everyone else picked less than 10 inches. We are smarting from that.

We got 23.2 inches…which is was the eighth snowiest January on record. December-January of this year was the second snowiest 2-month period in Madison records…which go back to the 1880s. Since we got hit so hard in December, the thinking was that the odds were against back-2-back snowy months. However, La Ninas—if they have any trend at all–tend to make winters over the upper Midwest a bit more potent…whether that be cold or snow…or both.

In forecasting, as in life, it is much more profitable to be lucky than skilful.

Delayed In MKE

I spoke to Helaine this morning. She was due back in Connecticut this evening around 6:30… until Midwest called. Mechanical problems, they said. Flight canceled.

The skeptic in me still looked to see the ‘equipment’ with the mechcanical problems will be flying passengers into Milwaukee before being pulled. I am always suspicious with airlines. Can I cancel my reservation for mechanical problems and suffer no consequences?

Helaine is much more gracious than I am, even when the reservations agent asked if she could fly to Newark (101 miles) or Washington (318 miles) instead of Bradley… where her car is?

Helaine explained the situation, so they booked her Midwest to Cleveland and Continental to Bradley. Neither the Midwest nor Continental flights are actually operated by those actual airlines. Again, can I fly under an assumed name without consequence?

With no Helaine, I have been left to my own devices. The pre-cooked food she left ran out last night. I have become needy with age, but even I can go to the grocery store – and I did.

Exactly who goes to Stop and Shop on Mother’s Day? I can’t say for sure, but it was jammed. I picked up my “Little Red Riding Hood” basket at the door and headed inside.

The losers were lined up in front of the Mother’s Day cards. Yikes! 2:00 PM on Mother’s Day and they still didn’t have a card? I joined them and began to search. I had already gotten Helaine a gift, so the card is more like icing.

Who am I fooling? It’s the card that’s important and the (in this case) peripheral that’s peripheral.

After picking up the cards and food I wanted, I moved over to the Dunkin’ Donuts stand. The girl behind the counter was scratching her arm as if she had psoriasis. Nice. Hope that rash clears. Thanks for sharing.

In a George Bush Sr. moment, I watched the guy in front me use a debit card to pay $1.80 for coffee and marveled. I have a credit card (only one) and no debit card. I’m so last century.

I pushed a $10 bill at “Itchy,” who handed me change and a receipt.

Do we really need receipts for coffee? Is someone going to return their coffee with cream and one Splenda?

At the automated checkout, I realized I don’t have a Stop and Shop card. Without it, everything is priced as if I were buying on Rodeo Drive.

I asked the guy in front of me if he would swipe his on my behalf. “No worries,” he said.

I’m home now. Helaine just called to update her progress. She hasn’t moved through security yet, but she’s confirmed on both flights. In a quirk of interairline weirdness, she’s got a handwritten paper ticket and no boarding pass on the Cleveland to Bradley leg!

Oh… and Midwest Airlines gave her a $75 flight voucher and another $8 for food. It’s little consolation, but as with everything on Mother’s Day, it’s the thought that counts.