Tag: Storm Prediction Center

Directly to Summer

All week long it looked like we’d have some serious thunderstorms this weekend – and they have arrived. I just got an email from a viewer in Plainville mentioning hail. We have had at least a half dozen Severe Thunderstorm Warnings through the state, with another one coming in a few moments ago for the Hartford area (north of me).

If you’ve never seen one, they can be a bit sobering. I’ve added some emphasis to the operative text.

WUUS51 KBOX 240016

SVRBOX

CTC003-240100-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

815 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WEST HARTFORD…NEWINGTON…NEW

BRITAIN…HARTFORD…EAST HARTFORD…BRISTOL

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 811 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON…OR ABOUT NEAR TORRINGTON…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

BURLINGTON AND CANTON BY 830 PM EDT

AVON BY 840 PM EDT

FARMINGTON BY 850 PM EDT

WEST HARTFORD BY 855 PM EDT

NEW BRITAIN AND NEWINGTON BY 900 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS…FREQUENT CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.

REMEMBER…IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER…YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT…LON 4195 7308 4180 7321 4153 7274 4174 7255

$$

BELK/MCCORMICK

Over the years I have had issues with some of these. By and large the Weather Service does a good job. Unfortunately severe weather warnings take a great deal of coordination to be effective, and that’s often lacking since there may be multiple areas of concern simultaneously.

In a perfect world we’d go from a “watch” to a “warning.” The “watch is a longer fused condition and allows people time to think about what’s coming. As far as I can see, there was no watch issued today before our warnings.

I’ve had discussions with friends about this. The consensus opinion is, the Storm Prediction Center (which issues only the watches) uses criteria that are more sensitive to the severe weather that occurs in the Midwest. Once a system has already gotten strong, they are not anxious to issue the watch. On the other hand, the local Weather Service Offices are more responsive to what’s on the radar and better at issuing warnings.

My job (in my opinion) is to get out ahead of the watches and warnings. I always give the watches and warnings as soon as I can, but often temper or modify them based on my knowledge. Often I’ll tell people the worry is over, even though the watch or warning is still in effect.

There are people who do what I do, probably most of them, who love severe weather. Some seem to live for it. There’s no doubt it’s exciting, and humbling, but how can you be rooting for something that can injure, destroy and even kill?

One of the most difficult things I do is pass along Tornado Warnings. For me, it is the most difficult part of being on TV. I know when I say a tornado might be on the ground that I am scaring the living daylights (or whatever more powerful word you’d like to use) out of a significant portion of my audience. When I start going through the steps you should take, should you be in the path, that only reinforces the magnitude of the danger.

Again, some people hope for these events to happen. I don’t get it.

Big Weather Monday

It was a busy afternoon at work today. A line of strong thunderstorms moved in from the west. There was certainly enough damaging activity along the line to pay significant attention. Last night’s computer model runs, and those from this morning, showed an unstable airmass for this afternoon. Here in Connecticut, that’s the best indicator of the chance for strong thunderstorms.

I’m mentioning this because the Weather Service never posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a Tornado Watch. We went from nothing to a Tornado Warning! That’s somewhat jarring.

There has been damage from the cells that brought on the warning, but I can’t be sure if it was actually caused by a tornado. Probably not. We are more likely to get straight line wind damage.

To me, the toughest part of this is going on the air and asking people to move to a position of safety. I know I’m scaring the living daylights out of some people. It is not something I can do easily… not that I won’t when it’s necessary. It’s just that I won’t do it when conditions are marginal.

The big question that’s going to have to be asked over the next few days is, why no watch? This is a major question. It’s not like some farmer’s field in Kansas had a little corn knocked down. This is an urban/suburban area with moderate to high population density.

If the Storm Prediction Center didn’t feel this line met their criteria, they need to reevaluate.

Left hand, meet right hand

It was clear, early on, that Friday had a significant chance for severe weather. I was concerned that the computer models downplayed it somewhat. But Thursday, within a few hours of being run, they had already blown the forecast in Michigan… so the computers weren’t to be totally trusted.

A little activity started on Central New York State toward early afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center threw up a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire state, effective until 8:00 PM.

That was the right call.

A little background. I forecast the weather. The folks I work with forecast the weather. My competitors forecast the weather. But, we all leave watches and warnings to the Weather Service. The idea is to present a coordinated front, so as not to be confusing. In my 20+ years in weather I have heard few dissent from this concept.

After a watch is posted, it is the job of the Taunton, MA National Weather Service Office to put out a ‘redefining’ statement for all of Connecticut (even though they normally only forecast for 3 of the 4 northern counties and none of the shoreline). These are needed because watches are parallelograms and they don’t evenly fit within state or county borders. Without the redefinition, a watch area might include a small sliver of a state or something else equally confusing.

Taunton’s original statement only included their counties.

WWUS61 KBOX 221719

SLSMA

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH #880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

120 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

CTC003-013-015-MAC005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-NHC005-011-

RIC001-003-005-007-009-230000-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

#880 UNTIL 800 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES…

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT:

HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

Then a correction to include the whole state.

WWUS61 KBOX 221744 CCA

SLSMA

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA …CORRECTION

143 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-230000-

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX

NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM

ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

But, by then the damage had been done. At the TV station our Weather Warn II computer was confused. It put up a Thunderstorm Watch and then alternated text for a “defined area” and mentioned the three original counties. If we would have aired it, it would have looked like the watch was only for three counties.

As I drove in, Kirk Varner, our news director (who reads this, I can’t blast him here), saw what was going on and basically shifted to manual. This system is supposed to work on its own, without intervention. At the moment, it can’t be trusted. But, thankfully, we had the right info on the screen.

Throughout the afternoon we saw scattered thunderstorms. They probably didn’t get to the ‘official’ severe limit, but were close enough to justify the watch box.

Thursday night, this same system had quieted down and then, with the watches expired, fired up. It even spawned tornadoes in Michigan on the ‘rebound.’

Tonight, the system again died down. And then a series of awful human judgment errors.

At 7:10 PM:

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-230000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

710 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

…PART OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT…

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE…

WESTERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…OR NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THESE AREAS AND THE

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR RHODE ISLAND.

IT ALSO CONTINUES FOR SUFFOLK…NORFOLK…BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH

COUNTIES IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

But, the threat hadn’t ended. All of a sudden, in Southern Windham County, the storms fired up rapidly and ferociously.

CTC015-RIC003-230015-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

751 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

WESTERN KENT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND

SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

INCLUDING PLAINFIELD

* UNTIL 815 PM.

* AT 747 PM…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PLAINFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

COVENTRY AROUND 810 PM

WEST GREENWICH AROUND 815 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO

KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

But, in Connecticut, these storms weren’t just over Windham County. They had crossed the border to New London County. In fact, by the time the warning went up, Northern New London County was seeing more action than Windham.

Windham County gets its warnings from Taunton, MA. New London County gets them from Upton, NY. No warning went up for New London County.

If there was reason for warning Windham County, there was reason for a warning to be issued for New London. This lack of coordination is a problem we face a few times a year, at the least.

At 7:51 PM, the watch and warning configuration in Connecticut was out of whack with what was actually happening. This system is supposed prepare and inform. It was confusing.

Thunderstorms continued, though weaker, until sometime past 10:00. Saturday will be a totally different weather animal – cooler and fresher.

I am not happy with what went on Friday. In many ways, I am powerless to change things unless I start ‘buying out’ of the unified watch and warning scenario.

I don’t think I’m ready for that… but I’m close.

——-

By the way, at 4:21 PM the dew point a Meriden, CT (KMMK) reached an unbelievable 79°! I can’t ever remember seeing a dew point that high in Connecticut.

Bad Forecasting 101

Whatever the reason, the forecast through the Great Lakes tonight has been atrocious. A strong line of thunderstorms stretched from the Quebec/Ontario border southwestward into the United States.

At least two tornadoes touched down in Michigan. There was NO Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch in effect.

There might have been a Tornado Warning or Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the counties affected, but since those don’t get issued until a storm is sighted, they afford little in the way preparation time.

I’m not at the Storm Prediction Center and certainly don’t know what goes on in their mind(s), but over time, it has seemed to me like they are reticent to issue a watch box once a storm has already gotten going.

I’ve seen it in Connecticut, and tonight in Michigan. It’s wrong.

Certainly issuing a watch while the storm is already in progress signals a blown forecast, but it allows all sorts of secondary actions to take place which will sensitize residents to what is taking place.

I will read, with interest, the Michigan newspaper websites over the next few days.