The Storm’s Over — The Numbers Are In

The dry air was the wild card. Radar showed moderate snow over all of Connecticut for hours-and-hours before anything hit the ground.

snow-shovel-on-the-steps.jpgThe snow has come and gone. There’s never a bullseye, but the forecast was reasonably close. If success is judged by number of complaints, or lack thereof, I’m doing fine. Here are the final DOT numbers. I have also added the Boston and New York NWS snow totals, which include Connecticut, for the Dec 20-21, 2009 storm at the end of this entry.

Not everyone was as lucky. A friend who forecasts in Springfield sent a text message saying he’d received nothing! “Bust of the decade,” he said. Ouch. Been there. I know exactly what he’s going through.

I was right about Southeastern Connecticut getting the most snow followed by the shoreline in general. The snow was fluffy and windblown as predicted. Accumulations were generally in line with my numbers. My call for the Northwest Hills and most of the area directly adjacent to the Massachusetts line was a few inches higher than the actual totals.

I wrote about this last night, but it bears repeating the most unusual and interesting part of this storm was the exceptionally dry air. During the summer we sometimes see 30 grams of water content per square meter. Last night it was around 1 gram per cubic meter!

The dry air was the wild card. Radar showed moderate snow over all of Connecticut for hours-and-hours before anything hit the ground. Once the atmospheric column over any location became saturated light snow turned to heavy snow. I’d never seen a situation quite like this before. It cut inches off all the accumulations.

It’s a shame this storm will impact Christmas shopping. Otherwise we’re lucky it came on a Saturday night when travel is usually light.

And now the dig out begins.

(NWS totals after the jump)

Continue reading “The Storm’s Over — The Numbers Are In”

Directly to Summer

All week long it looked like we’d have some serious thunderstorms this weekend – and they have arrived. I just got an email from a viewer in Plainville mentioning hail. We have had at least a half dozen Severe Thunderstorm Warnings through the state, with another one coming in a few moments ago for the Hartford area (north of me).

If you’ve never seen one, they can be a bit sobering. I’ve added some emphasis to the operative text.

WUUS51 KBOX 240016

SVRBOX

CTC003-240100-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

815 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WEST HARTFORD…NEWINGTON…NEW

BRITAIN…HARTFORD…EAST HARTFORD…BRISTOL

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 811 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON…OR ABOUT NEAR TORRINGTON…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

BURLINGTON AND CANTON BY 830 PM EDT

AVON BY 840 PM EDT

FARMINGTON BY 850 PM EDT

WEST HARTFORD BY 855 PM EDT

NEW BRITAIN AND NEWINGTON BY 900 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS…FREQUENT CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.

REMEMBER…IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER…YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT…LON 4195 7308 4180 7321 4153 7274 4174 7255

$$

BELK/MCCORMICK

Over the years I have had issues with some of these. By and large the Weather Service does a good job. Unfortunately severe weather warnings take a great deal of coordination to be effective, and that’s often lacking since there may be multiple areas of concern simultaneously.

In a perfect world we’d go from a “watch” to a “warning.” The “watch is a longer fused condition and allows people time to think about what’s coming. As far as I can see, there was no watch issued today before our warnings.

I’ve had discussions with friends about this. The consensus opinion is, the Storm Prediction Center (which issues only the watches) uses criteria that are more sensitive to the severe weather that occurs in the Midwest. Once a system has already gotten strong, they are not anxious to issue the watch. On the other hand, the local Weather Service Offices are more responsive to what’s on the radar and better at issuing warnings.

My job (in my opinion) is to get out ahead of the watches and warnings. I always give the watches and warnings as soon as I can, but often temper or modify them based on my knowledge. Often I’ll tell people the worry is over, even though the watch or warning is still in effect.

There are people who do what I do, probably most of them, who love severe weather. Some seem to live for it. There’s no doubt it’s exciting, and humbling, but how can you be rooting for something that can injure, destroy and even kill?

One of the most difficult things I do is pass along Tornado Warnings. For me, it is the most difficult part of being on TV. I know when I say a tornado might be on the ground that I am scaring the living daylights (or whatever more powerful word you’d like to use) out of a significant portion of my audience. When I start going through the steps you should take, should you be in the path, that only reinforces the magnitude of the danger.

Again, some people hope for these events to happen. I don’t get it.

TV Sports Factory Outlet

Living here in Connecticut, I’m not far from ESPN, the self proclaimed, “worldwide leader in sports.” They are located in Bristol, not far from the tall, narrow building used by Otis Elevators as a test center for elevator technology (really – the vast majority of the building is taken up by shafts).

I had been invited by a friend, for lunch. Working in this market so long, I know a bunch of people there. What always strikes me as odd is that people at ESPN also know me. It was a little unnerving, a few years ago, to meet some of their higher profile talent and have them know me.

I last visited ESPN more than 20 years ago. Back then I marveled at their satellite dishes. That was nothing!

As you approach ESPN, crossing from Southington to Bristol, the first thing you see are the immense dishes… and dozens of them. Since we’re pretty far from the equator, and lots of the satellites are really positioned for Europe or the Pacific, most of the dishes are barely pointed above the horizon. It’s a Star Wars scene to say the least.

Inside is just as immense. My TV station looks like a Radio Shack compared to what’s going on at ESPN! With 10 TV networks (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPN News, ESPN Deportes, ESPN-HD, ESPN Atlantic, ESPN Pac-Rim, ESPN Latin America [Spanish], ESPN Latin America [Portugese] PLUS 24/7 ESPN radio PLUS regional feeds PLUS occasional domestic and international feeds… ESPN.com originates in Bristol as well), the place is hopping around the clock. Because weekday sports is a nighttime thing, the most action takes place during what’s traditionally 2nd shift.

Wherever you look there are edit booths (they’re named by letters of the alphabet, but they recently ran out and had to name the 27th “AA”). Some are traditional with multiple tape machines and possibly a switcher. More and more they are becoming non-linear editing stations where all the audio and video ‘live’ on hard drives and not tape decks.

Keeping a facility like ESPN up-to-date is exceedingly difficult. As you advance the technology, going digital in what was once an analog world, you have to make sure ‘legacy’ equipment still functions and that all the equipment plays well together. I don’t envy the engineers who deal with that. I have seen, as video and audio paths move through different processes, that they tend to move out of sync… so lips flap before (or after) the words come out.

One of the smallest pieces of equipment I saw was one of the most startling. An engineer was splicing fiber optic cable by fusing it using laser light. As the two ends to be connected approached each other, they were displayed on a small LCD screen. Then, the screen went white. As it faded back to the original scene, what had been two pieces was now one. It looked like something out of a James Bond movie.

With all the networks, and all the programming, moving ‘normal’ TV signals around the plant is a major undertaking. The 125 channel in-house cable TV system is about to add a digital tier.

Of course I went to the Sports Center studio. Da da dum, da da dum. It was reasonably large for a studio. Most people see a TV studio for the first time and are immediately struck by how small they usually are. This was larger than it would have to be were it not for the fact that the opposite wall was used as a set for the NFL shows. The studio has three cameras on pedestals and another on a ‘jib’, which enables it to smoothly fly in three dimensions for a little added sizzle. There is a walkway about the flats.

The coloring of the studio and its fixtures seemed a little cold in real life. The desk areas were much too reminiscent of a hip clothing store at the mall. Still, on the air it looks great and that’s all that counts.

The most surprising part of the trip, and ostensibly the real purpose of my going there, was the cafeteria. It looked like something from Vegas, with a pasta station, salad bar and open grill. My friend told me, as nice as it is, people still kvetch. That doesn’t surprise me – though they’re crazy if they do. It is an employees job to kvetch, and most do it really well.

On The Radio – WTIC

This was my morning to be on WTIC. Even though I had been in radio for 11 years, I was apprehensive. I’ve only done talk shows a few times, and haven’t done one solo in better than 20 years.

I feared there would be no calls. What would I do or say? How could I fill that much time? And, what about topics I wanted to shy away from?

I have a rule to stay away from partisan politics because I work in a newsroom. Even though talk show hosts would normally be expected to let it all hang out, I had my ‘real’ job to return to. Even the weatherman should be ‘above’ the political fray.

I woke up early – around 7:15 AM. For me, who usually doesn’t go to bed until 3 or 4 AM, that’s the middle of the night! Actually, knowing I’d be home in time to catch a little nap made it easier to get into the shower and get dressed.

A definite advantage radio has over TV is the dress code. I could wear anything and not even shave. I went with a black pullover sweater and jeans with sneakers.

Remembering the last time, I left the house about 5 after 8 and headed directly to Dunkin’ Donuts. Medium coffee, cream and sugar, I was set. I had a long enough drive to allow the coffee to reach the correct drinking temperature.

This being the day after Christmas, traffic was fairly light. I absentmindedly blew by Route 9 on I91 and ended up heading to I84 in Hartford. Though I’ve been to WTIC before, I never remember how to get there. And, the directions are only moderately helpful because I never remember if the phrase “I84 West” means I’m driving west on I84 or coming from the west on I84!

WTIC is located in a nondescript, two story building in a Farmington office park. It’s a perfectly fine place for a radio station, I suppose. Deep inside, I really feel WTIC deserves to be in a free standing building of its own. It is one of America’s storied radio stations, with a long and rich history. It should be in a building that makes a statement. This building does not.

Mike Constantinou, my producer, was waiting in the parking lot when I arrived. The lot itself was 10% full. WTIC and its three sister stations were, in essence, still closed for Christmas. Only the air staff was on hand, and even then it was a smaller staff than usual. There was a sub for traffic, a sub for news, a sub for weather, and me subbing for Jim Vicevich.

We walked inside and I said hello to Ray Dunaway, who along with the vacationing Diane Smith, does the morning drive show. Ray has the deep, ballsy voice I always wanted, and never got. Like me, he had known from childhood that he was going to be in radio and then just followed through.

Before long I had headphones on and was schmoozing with Ray. We talked global warming (both of us are somewhat dubious of the gloom and doom) and how kids growing up have a misconception of the cleanliness of our air versus the pollution I knew as a kid.

He’s used to working with a partner and plays well with others, so I had no problems.

Ten O’clock came along and Ray left… leaving me the studio. I had told Mike that I wanted to run the board for the phones, but let him handle the commercials, news and traffic. As the news played out from a small studio off to the side, I sat down and got as comfortable as possible.

The studio is average sized for a radio studio. There are three mikes at the table surrounding the audio console, and one mike at the console itself. Off to the left were two computers – one for the commercials and logged content and another for communications between the producer and me. Slightly behind me and also to the left a lone PC on the Internet.

I had noticed a memo in the newsroom admonishing the staff not to use company computers to check their private email accounts whether they be Hotmail (actually, in the note it was Hot mail), Yahoo or anything else. At the same time, I couldn’t call home on the studio phone because you needed an accounting code to place an outside call. This is 2003 and I’m paying 3&#162 a minute for long distance service at home; they must be paying less. What are they worried about? After all, the studios are full of hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of equipment and there’s the liability that comes when the air staff is live. Internet and phone access should be way down the list of concerns.

News gave way to traffic and weather and then I was on. It was like getting back on a bicycle. I was ready to go.

In a talk show, you throw out topics in much the same way bartenders seed the tip jar. You’re trying to get your idea out to the audience. And, if they deviate or find a better place to go, you go there too.

Quickly, I started taking calls. After the fact, Helaine said I was trying too hard… and maybe I was. I didn’t have tomorrow to correct my mistakes. It was now or never. I wanted to limit calls – keep bringing in fresh ideas.

The common wisdom in talk shows is, it’s very easy to let someone go on too long. You’re better off moving through many calls. Of course to do that, you need calls.

A few minutes into the show, I started having technical troubles. It was my fault without a doubt. The controls for the phone lines were straight forward, but not very well marked. After a few calls I started pressing the wrong buttons and got trapped in some sort of talk show hell where I was camped on a line with someone who had been dispatched and no way to get to the next listener. Bad for the rhythm of the show.

I had received a note with the names of my traffic and news reporters. Next to the traffic reporters name, Rachel Duran, was a note saying, “Don’t call her Jill.” In some sort of radio insanity, the folks who report traffic on many different stations use many different names.

Best line of the morning (spoken on air but directed to Mike the producer): “Some people don’t call because they’re worried about being on hold too long. There should be a policy. If there are more than two callers waiting, we’ll open up another register.”

A woman called from Bristol. She had no idea who this new voice on the air was, and when I told her, she still didn’t know who I was. After nearly 20 years in the market, I’m entitled to have a little fun with that, so I told her we had given out $1,000 to each of our TV viewers last week and she had missed out.

From then on, I began to ask all the callers if they had gotten their $1,000 and everyone seemed to go along with the joke. Later, I began asking if anyone had gotten a hot tub from a friend… a not too veiled reference to Governor Rowland who had accepted a hot tub and is now in hot water.

I made it to the top of the hour newscast with only minor cuts and scratches.

Things went well as we began the second hour, but then trouble. The phone lines dried up. Beads of sweat began to form. I made a crucial mistake – a rookie mistake: I said we were out of calls.

As soon as I said it, I knew I had crossed some sacred talk show line. Sure, it’s not my job, but I’ll still kick myself every time I remember I did it.

With no traffic in Connecticut, every time Rachel (not Jill) came on the air, I asked her for a traffic report for some obscure area of the state, like Occum or Forestville or Union. She laughed and took it like a trooper.

The first rule of improv is going along with the bit. Rachel (not Jill) played the game correctly. Her willingness to have fun made the bit funnier. Actually, without her laughter it wasn’t funny at all. She made the bit.

As noon approached I was rolling and actually dreaded the end coming so soon.

I’m sure if I did it again, I would do some things differently. And, when I listen to the aircheck I brought home, some of my talk show shortcomings will come into sharp focus. I still have my amateur status, so that’s not a big deal.

Maybe there will be another time. You never know.

Left hand, meet right hand

It was clear, early on, that Friday had a significant chance for severe weather. I was concerned that the computer models downplayed it somewhat. But Thursday, within a few hours of being run, they had already blown the forecast in Michigan… so the computers weren’t to be totally trusted.

A little activity started on Central New York State toward early afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center threw up a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire state, effective until 8:00 PM.

That was the right call.

A little background. I forecast the weather. The folks I work with forecast the weather. My competitors forecast the weather. But, we all leave watches and warnings to the Weather Service. The idea is to present a coordinated front, so as not to be confusing. In my 20+ years in weather I have heard few dissent from this concept.

After a watch is posted, it is the job of the Taunton, MA National Weather Service Office to put out a ‘redefining’ statement for all of Connecticut (even though they normally only forecast for 3 of the 4 northern counties and none of the shoreline). These are needed because watches are parallelograms and they don’t evenly fit within state or county borders. Without the redefinition, a watch area might include a small sliver of a state or something else equally confusing.

Taunton’s original statement only included their counties.

WWUS61 KBOX 221719

SLSMA

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH #880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

120 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

CTC003-013-015-MAC005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-NHC005-011-

RIC001-003-005-007-009-230000-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

#880 UNTIL 800 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES…

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT:

HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

Then a correction to include the whole state.

WWUS61 KBOX 221744 CCA

SLSMA

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA …CORRECTION

143 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 880 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-230000-

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX

NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM

ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

But, by then the damage had been done. At the TV station our Weather Warn II computer was confused. It put up a Thunderstorm Watch and then alternated text for a “defined area” and mentioned the three original counties. If we would have aired it, it would have looked like the watch was only for three counties.

As I drove in, Kirk Varner, our news director (who reads this, I can’t blast him here), saw what was going on and basically shifted to manual. This system is supposed to work on its own, without intervention. At the moment, it can’t be trusted. But, thankfully, we had the right info on the screen.

Throughout the afternoon we saw scattered thunderstorms. They probably didn’t get to the ‘official’ severe limit, but were close enough to justify the watch box.

Thursday night, this same system had quieted down and then, with the watches expired, fired up. It even spawned tornadoes in Michigan on the ‘rebound.’

Tonight, the system again died down. And then a series of awful human judgment errors.

At 7:10 PM:

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-230000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

710 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

…PART OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT…

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE…

WESTERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…OR NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THESE AREAS AND THE

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR RHODE ISLAND.

IT ALSO CONTINUES FOR SUFFOLK…NORFOLK…BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH

COUNTIES IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

But, the threat hadn’t ended. All of a sudden, in Southern Windham County, the storms fired up rapidly and ferociously.

CTC015-RIC003-230015-

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

751 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

WESTERN KENT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND

SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

INCLUDING PLAINFIELD

* UNTIL 815 PM.

* AT 747 PM…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PLAINFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…

COVENTRY AROUND 810 PM

WEST GREENWICH AROUND 815 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO

KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

But, in Connecticut, these storms weren’t just over Windham County. They had crossed the border to New London County. In fact, by the time the warning went up, Northern New London County was seeing more action than Windham.

Windham County gets its warnings from Taunton, MA. New London County gets them from Upton, NY. No warning went up for New London County.

If there was reason for warning Windham County, there was reason for a warning to be issued for New London. This lack of coordination is a problem we face a few times a year, at the least.

At 7:51 PM, the watch and warning configuration in Connecticut was out of whack with what was actually happening. This system is supposed prepare and inform. It was confusing.

Thunderstorms continued, though weaker, until sometime past 10:00. Saturday will be a totally different weather animal – cooler and fresher.

I am not happy with what went on Friday. In many ways, I am powerless to change things unless I start ‘buying out’ of the unified watch and warning scenario.

I don’t think I’m ready for that… but I’m close.

——-

By the way, at 4:21 PM the dew point a Meriden, CT (KMMK) reached an unbelievable 79°! I can’t ever remember seeing a dew point that high in Connecticut.