Drudge has linked to an article from a Central Florida TV station that’s interesting and worrisome.
Rosen: Fla. Lost Billions Of Dollars Because Of Incorrect Storm Outlook
I’m a non-believer in seasonal forecasts because I think, by and large, they’re awful – aka, inaccurate. By the way, the same goes for all the Global Warming hype.
Here’s what I wrote to a viewer earlier tdoay:
Geoff: I don’t believe in them. We don’t currently have the skill. Most long range forecasts end in embarrassment for the forecaster.
Should there be a monetary downside to a bad prediction? Neither Gray nor anyone other forecaster claims divine insight and 100% accuracy. He used the best techniques known to science.
More importantly, I don’t think anyone expects 100% accuracy.
I tend to think Harris Rosen’s rhetoric is bluster and no more… but who knows? Maybe he does have a case. I’m sure there’s a lawyer willing to help him.
But why go after Dr. Gray? There are other seasonal hurricane forecasts from forecasters with deeper pockets. AccuWeather comes to mind, though there are probably others.
I’ve got a dollar that says the attorney won’t forecast the outcome nor guarantee it.