Heads Up To The East Coast

This posting was made Tuesday, September 27, 2013. Forecasts change. This one has radically since it was published. – Geoff

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Last year, when Hurricane Sandy was a little pipsqueak south of Cuba, I noted how the European computer model was developing a storm unlike any I’d seen before. Its path took it toward the New York/New Jersey metro area, then Southern New England, moving toward land from the east.

The Euro was right. Sandy struck.

That’s why I’m a little uneasy about the last two Euro runs. Both bring a storm up a similar path.

Make no mistake, it’s very early. These two runs disagree on exactly where this storm will go, but they’re reasonably close. All the areas affected by Sandy are threatened again, probably late this weekend into early next week.

I can’t emphasize too strongly, computer modeling is notoriously suspect this far out. Beyond that, models like the European are made for synoptic scale weather–larger systems. Tropical cyclones are too small to be handled properly.

However, you can’t dismiss the Euro’s uncanny accuracy last year in a very similar situation.

There’s probably nothing you can or should do right now, except think about what you will do should this threat persist. If you’re in one of the affected areas, you’re already battle hardened.

Hurricanes and tropical storms seem romantic in the abstract. It only takes a day or two without the necessities of 21st Century life to bring you back to reality.

I hope the Euro is wrong.

The Wiftiness Of Long Range Hurricane Forecasting

It’s hurricane season. Yeah, I know it’s been that since June. This is REALLY hurricane season. From the last week and a half of August through the end of September the hurricane season spikes. There are two (almost three) Atlantic tropical systems simultaneously in play.

I am cautious so I constantly scan the computer models hoping for some insight. Earlier today the European model took Fiona (which doesn’t yet exist as a named storm) squarely into South Florida. Now it hits Havana two days earlier then heads into the Gulf toward New Orleans!

In other words no one knows.