This posting was made Tuesday, September 27, 2013. Forecasts change. This one has radically since it was published. – Geoff
Last year, when Hurricane Sandy was a little pipsqueak south of Cuba, I noted how the European computer model was developing a storm unlike any I’d seen before. Its path took it toward the New York/New Jersey metro area, then Southern New England, moving toward land from the east.
The Euro was right. Sandy struck.
That’s why I’m a little uneasy about the last two Euro runs. Both bring a storm up a similar path.
Make no mistake, it’s very early. These two runs disagree on exactly where this storm will go, but they’re reasonably close. All the areas affected by Sandy are threatened again, probably late this weekend into early next week.
I can’t emphasize too strongly, computer modeling is notoriously suspect this far out. Beyond that, models like the European are made for synoptic scale weather–larger systems. Tropical cyclones are too small to be handled properly.
However, you can’t dismiss the Euro’s uncanny accuracy last year in a very similar situation.
There’s probably nothing you can or should do right now, except think about what you will do should this threat persist. If you’re in one of the affected areas, you’re already battle hardened.
Hurricanes and tropical storms seem romantic in the abstract. It only takes a day or two without the necessities of 21st Century life to bring you back to reality.
I hope the Euro is wrong.
28 thoughts on “Heads Up To The East Coast”
Dear Geoff: How do I go about viewing this euro tracking on the net? Is there a website I can watch the progress of a possible hurricane? I have looked online at NOAA and there is nothing showing at the moment. Thanks for the head’s up.
The European (ECMWF) model is notoriously well protected. Unlike our domestic models, its output is sold to subscribers. Wunderground will let you look at it.
I’m a little confused. Is the Euro predicting the forming of a hurricane/tropical storm? Because I checked there’s nothing currently named or of suspect in the Atlantic. Where is the energy for this storm located now?
Greg its a storm ib the gulf that is going east over florida then into the Atlantic then start moving north!
Geoff, it would be nice if you posted the URL for both the US and Europe tracking services. Or do you have to be in the weather reporting business to get access this information?
There is an iPhone-iPad app called hurricane tracker that seems to be pretty comprehensive. There may be something similar for other operating systems.
this is what i believe Goeff is referring to
I have been using http://www.myfoxhurricane.com all summer. It has several weather models and is free to use. I like it because you can see the difference between them.
thanks for the heads up Geoff!!
Geoff, if you say so. Better to be prepared. Sounds like we might be in for it. I can see how much you miss forecasting our weather here in the northeast b/c you’re still at it. And I’m very happy about that. Thank you for the warning. I’ll look forward to your further updates.
Some of the weather guys said that these storms could possibly be the new norm. Global. warming?.theweather guys are also saying there could be another blizzard around the superbowl. So far we have had two October storms
Geoff, thanks for the heads-up. And posters, thanks for the links!
European models are pretty hot. tell me which one you ask about this stuff. cuz she’s pretty smart.
I see what you did there.
Thank you so much for continuing to keep track of our weather in CT. You were the only one I trusted, and still do. I was so bummed when I learned you were moving to CA.
What the heck are you even talking about???? there are no name storms just thunderstorms in florida – oh yeah that never happens. Please get a clue before saying something like Sandy may happen. Very irresponsible. New England is colder than usually and you don’t have to be a weatherman (do you have a degree in meteorology), to know cold water means no storms. No kidding something could develop off South Carolina. Happens almost daily.
Water temperature off Rhode Island is 62 F – yeah that will add to a storm. Water temperature are much cooler this year. Please some form of fact.
Are You a “weatherman”, Lance? Geoff would not post a fictional entry about a pretend model solution. Our current local conditions may not appear conducive to a tropical storm, but isn’t October too early and warm for a foot of snow? Oh wait, it isn’t…
Thanks for keeping an eye out for us!!! We miss you..
Lance, I don’t know who you are, but might I kindly suggest that if you don’t appreciate Geoff’s input that you exercise your right to hit the Ignore button instead of reading his blog? I can say that you are probably in a very small minority of people who do NOT trust Geoff with his forecasts here in the Connecticut area!
Geoff – we really miss you! Guess it’s a good week to take the boat out of the water for the season. Thanks !
Geoff, Thanks for keeping us in the loop on storms. I don’t watch any weather programs anymore. So when you post something, I read it.
Thanks for continuing to keep an eye on us, Geoff!
Thank you Geoff!
I quite agree with Andre N. (above^)
Always enjoy your blog….wondering how your parents are getting along? 🙂
To all the positive comments above, I say: “Second!”
After Geoff posted this yesterday I went to the Upton office Regional Discussion text and saw positively nothing related to this. Today, they posted: “THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONSENSUS TO HAVE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOME PLACE AROUND 30N/70W – WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OR SO”.
Wow. Hedge much??
I am getting married on Sunday afternoon and flying BDL-MIA on Monday AM. I sure hope I’m not cancelled due to WX!
Can you post or enable the timestamp of when you published this yesterday? I know it isn’t your nature, however I wholeheartedly endorse an “I told you so!” after whatever low pressure system develops this weekend!
As was previously mentioned: we miss you, and are thankful you have this web presence. Have fun and be well out there in 6-land.
Whether or not this is true, weathermen (or any forecaster of the future) and the internet, in general, are both dubious sources of information. Realistically, news and media could be manipulated/exaggerated (fabricated) to enhance ratings/viewers and, as a result, profits from advertising. On the internet, you can post something completely fictitious, but believable enough to warrant high traffic, and establish credibility for the claim elsewhere through forged testimonies , under whatever pseudonym they might choose. If the idea of people profiting from our curiousity or emotions (or, without fault and exception, our gullibility) doesn’t sit well with you, I agree. Be cautious, embody change. Sorry for the essay.
You are right, of course. You have to trust your sources else you have to do the research yourself. I submit, however, that MANY people here in southern New England (Myself included) trust Geoff via an Internet forecast from Southern California more than we do our local broadcasters. And, since many of us do not have the knowledge or time ourselves to research and forecast weather with any chance of accuracy, we appreciate Geoff’s efforts and commentary even more than we did when he was an on air personality here in the area.
Read the comments of this very thread to see what I mean. Many of us have followed Geoff thru his switch of TV stations here in CT, and then have stopped watching local news altogether when he went off air. I am not the only one to do this, others have said this in this very thread.
Geoff is more than an on-air personality to many of us. He is a trusted commentator whom is not saying something simply for profit or grandeur, but rather because it is his passion, and he is genuinely concerned for us. If you have lived in CT and watched his on air broadcasts for any period of time you would quickly see what I mean. To me, all other weather forecasters are suspect as you pointed out, but not Geoff. His passion and concern are genuine, as he has proved for years and years while on-air. And this thread has confirmed that I am not the only one that feels that way.
O, and for the record and in the interest of full disclosure, I did suggest to Geoff in a previous thread here on his blog that he does start forecasting weather for us here in CT, and that he could actually make money doing such.
I dare say there is not one other broadcaster, current or former, here in Southern New England that has a loyal following of people that could even have a remote chance of pulling that off. Frankly, I doubt there is another forecaster anywhere in the USA, that could possibly have a chance of making something like that work.
But I believe Geoff can because he has a very loyal base of followers that trust him, exactly for the reasons you point out. We did our due diligence with Geoff from the early 1980’s, and have come to learn from his passionate forecasts and concerned comments that we have no need to question his integrity or motives. The rest of the group of forecasters in our area should heed your comments, however.
^^^You should listen to this guy. Totally credible.