Inconsistent Models

A problem with computer modeling is even small errors get multiplied over time. A slight shift from run-to-run becomes much larger when you’re looking out five or six days. That seems the case with the latest run of the European model and its positioning of a potential Northeast storm for early next week.

The storm track is now farther east. That’s good for most of the heavy population along the East Coast–not all. Under this newer scenario the Cape is very much under-the-gun.

The American GFS model is even farther east than the Euro. Its solution would make this a ‘fish storm.’ That is a very typical scenario for this type of system.

Of course, after last year’s run-in with Sandy we’re all sensitized to tracks that aren’t typical!

It’s only Wednesday. This storm’s potential impact comes early Monday. The models will shift again. They always do.

It’s a good time to remain cautious and do little more.

6 thoughts on “Inconsistent Models”

  1. I live in Eastern Connecticut. Plainfield to be exact so I always keep an eye on potential storms. Like you said, keep an watchful eye. Truthfully I hope it misses us totally, however, considering what may be blocking it off the cost from doing this makes me cautious. Please continue to keep us informed each day. I know it changes, but the changes become more permanent the closer we get to its arrival and that lets people know they should at least be checking to make sure they have supplies in place and check their generators. I don’t think it will be a Sandy, but who knows what mother nature’s final decision may be.

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