The Easterly Trend Continues

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I’ve been away all day and just got a chance to look at the 12Z ECMWF, the European model. The storm for early next week is now forecast even farther east.

Fish storm!

This highlights a forecaster’s quandary. We know predictions for weather nearly a week out are often inaccurate. That seems to be the case here.

Do I sit on my hands or present what I know with enough provisos that readers understand it’s still carved in chocolate pudding? In other words, is a heads up OK?

Twenty years ago the answer was absolutely, positively say nothing! Post Sandy, in this era of more insightful computer models, it’s not so easy.

Understanding how and when to present potentially scary info is still a work in progress. I’m not sure there’ll ever be a firm answer. You go with your gut.

11 thoughts on “The Easterly Trend Continues”

  1. Well, there’s a line somewhere between “You might want to keep an eye on this” and “The sky is falling and we’re all going to die!” IMHO, you’ve been on the correct side of that line.

    This time the local media restrained themselves, but unfortunately in the past I’ve seen a lot of relatively small storms being hyped as the next coming of the ’38 hurricane.

  2. I agree with Deb, and thank you for the early potential warning. You clearly said that it was really early, and the computer models are notoriously suspect this far out in time. At the same time, however, considering recent events here, an extra few days of “keep an eye out” before we learn that the sky will really fall is in some way comforting and gives a few extra days to mull plans thru ones mind before the “o crap, this will really happen” neuron starts firing..

    Thanks Geoff,

    – Andre

  3. I have always wondered how it is possible to come up with a temperature a week in advance and whether is was going to rain or not. When I went on a cruise with Dr Mel, I asked him. He said it was just an educated guess. Satellites can help track a storm, how do you know if the temperature is going up or down? Weather is a fascinating subject.

  4. I want to know there is a possibility. I don’t get to watch the news because of my job. I read your blog and then knew to pay attention to the weather. The fact that it’s not coming only makes me breathe easier, not get mad at you for letting me know. Keep doing what your doing. It’s still comforting to hear Geoff Fox talk about weather, even it’s from sunny California lol

  5. I appreciate the heads up so I’ll keep a closer eye on the forecast….something that I don’t do as much since my favorite meteorologist left CT! Thanks for keeping us posted!!!

  6. Thanks for the forecast. It’s comforting to still have you around even if you abandon ship and fled to sunny California. I hope you get tired of the beautiful wester and come back to wonderful changing Connecticut.

  7. You keep on doing what you are doing Geoff. I completely trust you and also understand that forecasting a week out will mean it will normally change as storms get closer. Don’t listen or take to heart negative comments. They are idiots to even question you.

  8. When I see a forecast a week out I take it with a grain of salt. I know it’s going to change ten times before the day gets there.
    This storm doesn’t even show up on other weather sites long-range forecasts. So the whole thing was news to me.

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